"I'm a Serious
Underdog in the Playoffs this Week, What Can I
Do To Pull Out an Upset Win?"
I have one goal each season, to
make the Fantasy Football playoffs. I have no
expectations that I will win the Championship,
no matter how good my team is.
Part of Billy Beane's
philosophy in all this Moneyball "stuff" is
essentially -- his job was to get his team to
the playoffs using his statistical theory, and
then God help us all after that...because the
playoffs are too small a sample-size to prove
anything.
A couple of years ago, I
introduced my non-football following family to
Fantasy Football. My wife, and my two young
boys...a "wonderful" 4-team league. We had a
family wager of the winner gets to pick where we
go to dinner on Sunday afternoon. As you might
imagine (or hope, if you paid for a draft guide
this year), I was the number one playoff seed in
this league for the two-round playoffs...of
course, meaning I faced the #4 seed, my youngest
son. He had pretty much abandoned his team a few
weeks prior as his team perpetually got beat.
You know where this is going...
I set my all-star squad lineup in
place, all set to face my son, who had a lineup
featuring a kicker that had been lost for the
season weeks ago. Of course, whatever players he
had in went crazy...and I was jettisoned early
from the 4-team league playoffs against a young
man who knew nothing about any player on his
team.
Anything can happen in just one
week.
All you can do now, is try to
avoid obvious missteps no matter how "big" the
players name is...and maybe take a shot or two
outside-the-box if you think you need the boost.
A couple of things I see for Week-14, as items
to consider...
(1) Blame it on us if you
lose...
-- If we helped get you
here, certainly we are to blame for your
loss...and it makes it mentally easier to
swallow the bitter pill. It's OK, because I will
blame it on our computer designs...so it all
rolls downhill.
(2) Trust the obvious
trends that are working 80-90% of the time, even
though the 10-20% side may win in any given
week...
-- The 49ers have not
allowed a rushing TD this season, as much as you
remember Beanie Wells 200+ yard game
against STL...the SF game is trouble. If you
have other reasonable RB options, play them.
-- The Cleveland Browns
have been incredibly stingy against the pass,
and Ben Roethlisberger has been fairly
muted this season. Everything about this game
screams under-whelming Fantasy Football game by
Big Ben. If the Browns are going to hold the
Steelers passing down, Antonio Brown is
not a great play.
-- Darrelle Revis is
likely going to shut-down Dwayne Bowe...don't
even bother playing him.
-- The Broncos passing game
is futile, with WRs hoping for scraps of
output...you're really out on a limb hoping for
a huge game from Eric Decker or
Demaryius Thomas against the Bears.
-- Dexter McCluster
has done little in most every game this year,
why will he now go big against the
Jets-Defense?
-- Houston is stuffing the
run...you cannot count on Cedric Benson
this week.
-- The Steelers run-defense
is coming on fast, and Peyton Hillis has
been a poor performer for most all 2011, and
late 2010...and now he is fighting a hip injury;
on a short-week. Why steer right into all this
negative data by thinking of Hillis as
early-2010 Hillis, and playing him vs. PIT this
week?
(3) In instances of two
players who you are having a tough time deciding
upon, go with the one playing on the team that
is scratching and clawing for their life...
-- The Chargers may be one
game out of the division lead with a win this
week, and they are facing the porous
Bills-Defense at home. There will be no
messing around in this game, Rivers is going to
go with what works -- Vincent Jackson may
have been erratic this year, but this is going
to be like a Super Bowl this week...it could be
huge for Rivers, Jackson, Gates and Mathews.
-- The Lions are facing the
worse team pass-defense in the NFL (MIN), in a
must-win game. Matthew Stafford could go
crazy, and take a Brandon Pettigrew
(among many) with him.
-- The Denver-Defense
faces a must-win game versus Caleb Hanie,
without Matt Forte...this could be the
time to have full confidence in a Broncos
defensive play.
-- T.J. Yates is a
nice story, and we like him...but the Cincy-D
at home/in the cold/in a must-win against a
rookie-QB might be a play in Fantasy Football
leagues where a lot of other preferred defensive
options are gone.
(4) Leap into injury-based
opportunities...
-- The Seattle-Defense
against any Rams QB is pretty solid, but if they
get 3rd-string Tom Brandstater...the
Seahawks-D may carry you to the next round of
the playoffs.
-- C.J. Spiller is
mimicking Fred Jackson...you would start
a healthy Jackson no doubt, so Spiller is nearly
a must-start this week. Don't fear the past
mediocrity/unknown with Spiller.
-- Josh Johnson is
an interesting alternative at QB, if he starts
for an injured Josh Freeman. His run/pass
ability...may give you a shocking boost over
other "name" QBs that feel more comfortable, but
are likely to have a more quiet game this
week...like Big Ben, Sanchez, Flacco, Dalton.
-- Adrian Peterson
gets ruled out, Toby Gerhart is a-go against DET
(less Suh).
(5) Make sure your kicker's
team is going to need FGs, or get in range of
them...
-- If the Saints, Patriots,
and Packers are going to drop 30-40 points on
their opponents...then Rob Bironas, Graham
Gano, and Sebastian Janikowski
might not be kicking many FGs. Kickers against
the high-flying trio of GB-NO-NE, are posting
about a point per game less then the general
averages.
-- The Chiefs vs. NYJ, the
Colts vs. BAL, and the Browns vs. PIT means
Succop, Vinatieri, and Dawson may not
see the opponent's side of the field at all.
Maybe even Robbie Gould suffers with
Hanie vs. the Broncos-Defense.
(6) If a tough decision
choosing between two WR/RB/TEs, look at the
player likely to see the most targets...and/or
is the most capable of a monster game.
-- Torrey Smith is
capable of a monster multi-TD, big yard game, or
a 2 catch for 34 yards game. He may be lightning
in a bottle if you need it.
-- Malcom Floyd has
three 100+ yard games in his last four games
played, but is lost in the shuffle because he
has missed several games with injury.
-- Mike Williams/TB
and Santana Moss are still top
pass-targets, and red-zone target WRs for their
respective teams...targets = opportunity.
-- Aaron Hernandez
is one of the top red-zone target per game
players in all the NFL.
-- DeSean Jackson
has been a disappointment, but he is always much
better paired with Michael Vick. Jackson
needs to repair his free agent standing, and
Vick will oblige (if starting)...Jackson could
go wild this week.
