FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT 2011 ~ Question of the Day

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"I have a broken RB, what do I do?""

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FANTASY FOOTBALL METRICS - AMAZON.COM Question of the Day

 

By R.C. Fischer
Release Date:
  11/22/2011

"I have a broken RB, what do I do?"

 

"I have a broken RB, what do I do?"

Adrian Peterson and Fred Jackson are potentially out this week.

Maybe, you are holding onto Jahvid Best, Darren McFadden, Peyton Hillis/Montario Hardesty or Ahmad Bradshaw...and impatience is growing, and hope is fleeting.

Perhaps you are in a deeper roster league, and you have been bouncing around/had hopes dashed recently with Lance Ball, Roy Helu, Kendall Hunter, Jackie Battle, etc.

There is mayhem, and wild inconstancy at the RB position this Fantasy Football season (as usual)...but Week-12 may provide some hope. With the injuries this week, unlike the past couple weeks, there is potentially some superior talent who might make its way forward...whether just for Week-12, or has legs to run for a bit. A couple that we are excited about:

 

Toby Gerhart = There is a built-in Gerhart bias. He looks like a FB, so mentally many have him pigeon-holed as a useless Fantasy Football RB. Gerhart was arguably the most productive college RB in the 2010 NFL Draft RB class. He is also very fast and agile for his size, at 230 pounds...he ran a 4.50 40-time at the NFL Combine. They don't "make" RBs the size and speed of Gerhart.

When Gerhart saw time last season on an AP injury, he was very productive. In 3 games with 10+ carries in 2010, Gerhart averaged 16.7 carries, 69.0 yards rushing, 76.0 total yards, scoring 1 TD.

His size/speed makes him a monster around the goal-line. In a growing Vikings offense, against a decent Atlanta defense...you could expect Gerhart to post 50+ yards pretty easily, and a higher probability for a rushing TD. He is also a very good receiver.

 

C.J. Spiller = At one time, everyone thought this was a no-brainer...the #1 RB taken in the 2010 NFL Draft, now an afterthought WR. Spiller had excellent grades for us in our computer scouting models, speed/agility amazing...performance-wise, just decent. Size is an issue at less than 200 pounds. For one week, he could be electric on any touch/opportunity...even against the Jets. If Spiller were to get 10-15+ carries and 5+ pass-targets like Fred Jackson, we might not be as impressed with Jackson anymore. He is the most intriguing one-week fill-in RB, but we're not in love with that match-up versus the Jets.

 

Donald Brown = We have been writing about this for weeks, targeting this solo Week-12 game against Carolina. If I knew for sure that Joseph Addai was out, I would go "all-in" here. Brown graded very well in our computer scouting models in 2009, and has shown flashes...but has been out with injury more than he has played. This season, he has looked sensational at times. Like Gerhart and Spiller, Brown is a very good receiver as well.

Watch for word that Addai is out for Week-12, if so Brown has taken over from Delone Carter in the last few weeks, and has established himself ahead of Carter. Facing the worst run-defense in the league (Carolina)...the same ones who were torched by Chris Johnson and Kevin Smith the prior two games. We love this play for Week-12 (with no Addai, maybe even with).

 

Shane Vereen = This is the wild-card. Vereen could see sporadic carries on and off the rest of 2011, or Vereen may become the star RB of the Fantasy Football playoff run. Vereen (on paper) is much more talented than all the other Patriots RB. Fast, agile, incredibly strong, and a great receiver...Vereen may be that X-factor that pushes the Pats to the Super Bowl, and everyone worshiping Bill Belichick once again.

It all sounds great, but Vereen is a rookie...and Belichick is sporadic with RB usage. This is a play only if you have a roster spot to "waste" on a lottery ticket.

 

 

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By R.C. Fischer
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