"I have a broken QB,
what do I do?"
Matt Cassel, then
Michael Vick, then Matt Schaub...one-by-one
the phone has been ringing and the email
lighting up all day.
Usually, my emails are from
wayward souls whom have been hopping from QB to
QB in search of a season-saver. This week,
people a new group of people join "the QB
concerned"...Fantasy GMs, who thought they were
locked in at QB...and potentially just got
un-locked today.
Let's
take a look at these three QB-injury situations,
and project what could happen. Then we'll take a
look at a few discarded QBs potentially
available in the Fantasy Football free agent
universe, to see what diamonds in the rough are
out there.
Kansas City Chiefs QB situation
ahead...
*Assuming Cassel gone for the season
The largest wave of email has
come from our "Ricky Stanzi cult." Sorry
to longer-term readers, but to those that are
new...the very, very short version (but do check
out my eloquent long version, link below) -- our
computer scouting analysis projects Ricky
Stanzi as a future elite NFL QB.
NFL Draft Picks 2011 - Ricky Stanzi the Best QB
in the 2011 NFL Draft? - Fantasy Football 2011
I would say for every 100 people
that I know, and/or readers who email in, and/or
private clients we have...about 5% actually
believe Stanzi = elite is possible. Which is
cool, and understandable. The other 95% have a
wait and see fascination with this...which is
completely logical.
The projection of Ricky
Stanzi as the next great NFL QB, defies
everything that all of us knows about football.
There is no credible media that has said that
Stanzi is a for sure future elite QB, and a
5th-Round 2011 NFL Draft status pretty much lets
you know where the NFL scouts stand. Not to be
pompous, but we have correctly defied NFL
commentators and many talent evaluators for most
of 2011 (and 2010). However, even we are anxious
about this one (Stanzi). We guarantee nothing,
and know that the computer analysis can/will be
wrong from time-to-time...it's not perfect, but
it's running a nice track record -- a correct
call on Ricky Stanzi would be monumental.
With all that build up, you
cannot bet on Ricky Stanzi for Fantasy
Football 2011. It's not fair/sound logic to bet
heavily on any rookie QB for Fantasy Football
2011. As much as we love Stanzi, there are
barriers here for 2011. What we think is going
to happen:
Tyler
Palko will start. Tyler Palko throws
a football like his shot-putting a medicine
ball. If you take nothing away from the Chiefs
QB situation, know that Palko is not a viable
Fantasy Football play. Palko will start against
the Patriots, and somewhere between the 2nd-half
of the NE game and Week-15, Ricky Stanzi
will likely take over.
Whether it is Palko or Stanzi,
NE-PIT-CHI-NYJ-GB is the upcoming Chiefs
schedule. It doesn't matter how good Stanzi, or
Palko, might be...they will not have big
statistical games against those higher-level
teams in the upcoming schedule.
At some point, Stanzi will
play in 2011. The Chiefs have to get a taste of
whether Stanzi is a franchise QB, or they need
to go hunting still. If I read Matt Cassel's
contract correct, he is signed through
2014...but not much of a hit to let him go in
2012+, it looks like (someone correct me if I'm
wrong) the majority of the signing bonus was
paid/accounted for in 2009. Cassel hasn't done
much in 2011 to show that he is "the future." If
Stanzi is as good as we think that he is, if he
gets a shot in 2011...there may be no turning
back. Long-term Fantasy Football, we love
Stanzi. Short-term 2011, you really can't count
on big Fantasy Football stats...it's not logical
given all the circumstances (not that we won't
be glued to the game to see if it happens!).
Houston Texans QB situation
ahead...
It's
not breaking news, but Matt Leinart is
not a good NFL QB. In this Texans situation, his
stats may not be as bad as all the staunch
anti-Leinart Fantasy GMs might think. We're
anti-Leinart, and we are nowhere near endorsing
Leinart at all...just saying he may not be
totally dreadful. Leinart will throw his
customary 90% RB dump passes, and the Texans
have great RBs...so Leinart can produce some
decent stats. A typical stat line for Leinart
will be 15-22 for 185 yards and 1 TD...nothing
to get excited about for Fantasy Football
purposes, but better than Tyler Palko.
The dark-horse in this race is
T.J. Yates. By no means is Yates a 2011
Fantasy Football play, likely he never sees the
field in 2011. We had very strong computer
scouting ratings on T.J. Yates coming out of
college this year. Just shy of a full
endorsement...the computer sees Yates as good at
best, not elite. What I saw in glimpses in the
preseason, I thought were great (in the context
of rookie play). Likely, the Texans sign a
veteran QB...maybe a Brett Favre. So,
there is no way Yates can take the helm of a
potential Super Bowl team...but should Leinart
falter, and Yates get a shot...beware that he
could shock the world, given his no-name status.
Philadelphia Eagles QB
situation ahead...
What we theorized on Michael
Vick is coming true right before our very
eyes...flimsy NFL QB, great Fantasy Football QB
(on rushing totals), and too big an injury risk
to take highly in the Fantasy Football preseason
drafts.
The Fantasy Football Shark Tank - Will You
"Invest" in Michael Vick 2011
I cannot imagine that Vick will
not play in this huge, do or die, game this
week. That should not be of total comfort for
Vick owners. Takeaway/slash into the rushing
totals, and Vick is just an average QB. For
those that have been riding 20+ point Vick
efforts in games most of the season, the odds
will be against it this week.
Vick is also possibly one hit
away from being done for the season, especially
if the Eagles lose this game and are essentially
cast out of the 2011 playoff scene for good.
Should that happen, you know the smart money is
to rest Vick...maybe even shut him down the rest
of 2011.
If the Eagles
turn to Mike Kafka, it will be another
23-35 for 232 yards and 1 TD/2 INT type of QB in
the world...so nothing exciting for Fantasy
Football. Our computer analysis had lower grades
on Kafka coming out of college.
The one QB that has Fantasy
Football value in all of this post-Vick
discussion -- (gulp) is Vince Young. We are not
pro-Vince Young the QB/passer/leader. However,
we do love rushing totals for QBs in Fantasy
Football. Should Young be elevated (and not sure
he would be over Kafka) to Eagles starter, he
could be very Tim Tebow-esque...with more
experience, and surrounded by more weapons. He
might be a better version of Tebow (for right
now). Young would be playing for his life, so we
would assume stats to follow...especially as a
runner.
If I had Vick, one of the
first moves would be to be sure I had a decent
QB-2 on hand if needed. Then, I would have to
consider burning another roster spot on Young
just in case Vick is done for 2011 after this
week, and Young is elevated. Young may
out-Vick-Vick if he gets a shot...because his
NFL life may depend upon it (much like Vick
circa 2010).
Looking for a QB this week/the
rest of 2011?
If
you are in need of a QB because of Schaub,
because of Vick, because of Flacco, Rivers
etc...keep in mind, you are not alone. There are
several people that have just entered the
QB-need/despair situation, and the pickings are
slim.
First things
first, those that have a great QB-1, and a
competent QB-2 sitting on your bench...Tebow,
Sanchez, etc. The price of poker just went up...Mark
Sanchez may not mean a lot to you if you
have Aaron Rodgers as your starter...but
the price has just about doubled for Eli,
Sanchez, even Ryan Fitzpatrick. Don't
sell yourself short, make people pay.
Lesser discussed QB options to
think about:
-
Kevin Kolb --
especially if he is named starter this week.
John Skelton has played OK, but Kolb is the
franchise (or he isn't). We still see decent
metrics here, and we still think (and there
aren't many/any left to join us on that)
Kolb is a top-12 level Fantasy Football QB.
The one QB hated, sitting free in most
leagues, that might actually be a star is
Kolb. Perhaps, he won't...but the
possibility is there. It is not with Palko,
Leinart, Kafka, etc
-
Sam Bradford --
remember when we all thought Bradford was a
future star last year? We still think he is.
He works with a bad offense, on a mediocre
team...but as I watch the tape on Bradford,
he's not performing as poorly as you would
think. A lot of drops by receivers, and poor
protection. The first six games of the 2011
schedule were brutal. In a sea of despair,
this is a QB play that at least has talent
mixed with hope. Bradford and Kolb are
similar, except Kolb has more weapons...but
Bradford for sure is playing this week.
-
Christian Ponder --
the overall stats look weak, but the QB
himself looks excellent for a rookie. Two of
his 3 games so far have been against the
very savvy Packers-Defense. Ahead, Ponder
has a great schedule = OAK-ATL-DEN-DET-NO
(all 5 of those games in a dome!!). We think
Ponder is going to shock a few people with
some stats in upcoming weeks. Still, he is a
rookie, so we have to be careful getting too
far ahead of ourselves.
-
Tim Tebow -- somehow
he is still available in traditional
leagues. He should be rostered, and starting
for many...except maybe this week against
the Jets. Tebow is more Fantasy Football
favorable than anyone above on the list
(except this week).
-
John Skelton -- if the
Cardinals go bold, and run with
Skelton...he's not bad. We don't have great
ratings on him, but we've seen things on
tape in 2010 that we liked. If everyone in
the world is gone, and you are sifting
through rubble...I would take Skelton over
Leinart, Palko, Kafka, Grossman, etc
