Javon Ringer is in play
this week, and there are plenty of "Fantasy
Football vultures" circling overhead of the
Chris Johnson road kill. Before we jump too
fast in on Ringer, let's take a look at whether
we think he can succeed as the Titans main RB.
We'll do a quick background check, and then
speculate on what could happen from here...
Our summary in our 2011 Fantasy
Football Draft Guide, sums up what we think of
Ringer very quickly:
....Ringer probably would
be a starter for many other NFL teams, but sits
behind Chris Johnson for the Titans. Ringer may
have been on his way to being a 1st-Round draft
pick in 2009 (1,639 yards, 22 TDs his Senior
season), until knee injuries sent him falling to
the 5th Round. Ringer filled in behind Johnson
in 2010, with some decent performances in spot
chances given. In his 2 seasons in the NFL,
Ringer has limited carries (59), but has
averaged 4.9 ypc and a TD every 30 touches -- a
1,500 yd, 10 TD projection on a 300 carry
season. Ringer graded as a strong and agile NFL
RB in our analysis coming out of college, but a
little on the slow side -- however, coming off
knee surgery it may have been skewed. Ringer (if
fully healthy) may be a complete package, but
nothing we can get excited about with the great
Chris Johnson ahead of him.
We had a hard time projecting
Ringer to the NFL using our computer scouting
analysis, because he had knee issues ending his
Michigan State career, which rolled into
possible issues at the NFL Combine. Ringer's
Combine numbers were pretty good, and his campus
Pro-Day metrics even better. Physically,
translating to the NFL, we would profile Ringer
as a B to a B+.
Ringer's college performance
was pretty quiet for his first three seasons,
then exploded in his senior year with a 1,637
yard rushing total with 22 TDs. That tally, led
to talk of Ringer as a Heisman candidate
throughout 2008. Ringer had some impressive
overall totals, but a look inside at his
individual game totals started to tell a
different story. Ringer's monster games of 2008
were vs. Florida Atlantic and Eastern Michigan.
Ringer also punched big games versus Indiana,
Northwestern, Michigan, Purdue...but looking at
Ringer's games versus the power teams in his
conference -- Ringer had no 100-yard rushing
games vs. OSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State...not
only no 100-yard games, but more on the
shut-down side of the ledger for Ringer in
bigger games. In his 2008 Bowl Game vs. Georgia,
Ringer was held to 47 yards on 20 carries.
Ringer was a solid performer in college, but
unspectacular...his output a little pumped by
great stats against weaker opponents.
When you mix a weaker college
performer in key games, with a knee injury, with
nice physical tools...you get a 5th Round Draft
pick in 2009.
Ringer has been a very nice
back-up RB for the past two seasons, but now
suddenly getting heavier play with the downfall
of Chris Johnson. We are getting a ton of
questions on Ringer this week, and here is what
our guidance would be:
1) Ringer rates as a
solid/above-average NFL RB to us on a talent
basis, not a future superstar, but very
solid/useful.
2) We like an RB with
carry/target opportunity as much as their talent
level, and obviously Ringer is in line for more
opportunities. However, Ringer is not so stellar
in our computer models that we could foresee a
scenario where Ringer is such a talent in
waiting, that he will wrest away the starting
job and never look back. He is more of an RB of
the moment. The Titans have had Ringer in camp
for three seasons...if they envisioned him as a
future star, they would have likely dealt with
the Chris Johnson contract scenario very
differently (maybe that's assigning too much on
the Titans brass).
Ringer is useful now, because
he has to be...CJ is killing them. In order to
be a great Fantasy Football pickup, Ringer would
have to get the majority of the carries/touches,
but we cannot foresee that happening. There is
no way CJ is not looming over this situation all
the time. If you think CJ will be benched, and
Ringer will be the 15+ carry RB for the Titans,
or you want to gamble that, then picking up
Ringer is an excellent hedge/gamble. We just do
not see a world where the Titans are not trying
to get Chris Johnson going, making Ringer
a potentially a very risky play week-to-week.
Dynasty Leaguers with Ringer
available, it's worth a shot depending upon what
you are going to cut loose. It's certainly CJ
insurance for those that have Johnson. We are
not projecting Ringer as a future superstar, but
he could find his way into becoming a starting
RB somewhere down the road. His contract expires
in 2012 with Tennessee. Based on his NFL
performance to date (in limited opportunity) and
some of his impressive physical skills, Ringer
is worth taking a low-risk shot on.
