"Any Miracles for
Week-16?"
A lot of what we attempt to do in
Fantasy Football week-to-week...is play the odds
of recent trends, or full season trends. If
something is working 70-80% of the time, we will
make that play (for or against) -- no matter how
counter intuitive it is. Sometimes the 20-30%
side of the coin-flip comes up. Sadly, this past
week...the NFL coin-flip landed the wrong way
for us, a lot more than normal. Packers losing,
Indy winning, Texans-D run upon, Eagles with
life, Big Ben not 100%, Ravens-D crushed, Harvin
with less than a point, Rodgers human,
Gronkowski human...I could go on. If there was a
week for miracles, it was Week-15.
Many of you survived, or pulled
off a major upset, in all that Week-15
mayhem...and are on the way to the finals. I
know, because my email volume is heavier than in
past Week-16's...and not as much hate mail. A
lot of folks are looking for something fresh for
this week, wanting to make sure no stone is
unturned.
There are three things that
either address the majority of specific player
questions, or are items flying under-the-radar
that might help your effort in the finals.
From our first wave of research,
some less obvious things to consider:
1) Jabar Gaffney
The Redskins are facing the worst
pass-defense in the world, Minnesota. Opposing
QBs have been mostly ripping off big passing
yardage games, with multiple TDs (and almost no
picks). In theory, Rex Grossman should
have a very nice game in Week-16...and many have
already thought of that. The two other things
I'd like to mention with that -- (1) If Roy
Helu is out, the Redskins passing game will
be even bigger, as the Vikings Run-D is solid,
and Evan Royster is not. (2) Jabar
Gaffney has been excellent the last few
weeks.
I want to do some fuzzy math. I
want to look at Gaffney's last 5 games...but I
want to exclude the Week-13 game where he was
shut-out versus the Jets (which I understand bad
games for WRs against NYJ, but it is not a
feather in his cap).
-
WK-11 = 7 rec for 115
yards and 1 TD (10 targets) vs. DAL
-
WK-12 = 5 rec for
72 yards and 0 TD (7 targets) vs. SEA
-
WK-14 = 6 rec for
92 yards and 1 TD (8 targets) vs. NE
-
WK-15 = 6 rec for
85 yards and 0 TD (9 targets) vs. NYG
In that 4-game capsule,
Gaffney is averaging = 6.0 rec for 91.0 yards
and 0.5 TDs, 12.1 FF PPG (18.1 PPR PPG).
Gaffney has been really good
as of late, but now throw in a very bad
pass-defense this week...and maybe he is money
in the bank for Week-16.
2) Kansas City
Chiefs-Defense
In their last three home
games, the Chiefs have held opposing offenses to
14.7 offensive points per game. The teams they
played were (by QB) Tebow, Roethlisberger,
Rodgers. In each game, they held their
opponents to 17 points or less.
The Chiefs-D has held 3
of their last 4 opponents (PIT, CHI, GB) to 14
offensive points or less. The Chiefs-Defense
has really been silently coming on, and that's
with no offense most of that span...a Tyler
Palko led offense.
KC has the much better Kyle
Orton to control the ball in Week-16 (as he
did Week-15). The Chiefs have a very good,
defensive-minded coach now running the team.
They also have everything in the world to play
for in Week-16. The Chiefs host a west coast
team (OAK), coming to the cold Midwest...a team
led by a very under-whelming Carson Palmer,
and likely minus their two best offensive
weapons in Darren McFadden and Jacoby
Ford.
The Chiefs have a ton of
defensive talent, but have had to suffer through
a bad offense. That is suddenly not an
issue...and they play a team with a suspect
defense this week. The Chiefs can control the
ball this week, and play Palmer for turnovers
like they did in Week-7, when they picked off
OAK QBs 6 times and held them to zero offensive
points.
3) Avoid Donald Brown,
do buy into C.J. Spiller
You may know we have been big
proponents of both RBs. Our computer scouting
system loves them. However, this is purely a
call on their opponents.
Brown had a monster game last
week, as we thought was possible. However, that
was against Tennessee...with the big TD run
coming late. This week, Brown faces the
Texans-D, which has been a monster most all
year (until last week). Benching RBs against the
Texans run-defense has been the right call 75%+
of the time...why fight it here, unless you are
blinded by the Texans-D down effort in
Week-15 vs. Carolina? We love Brown, but you
can't play him here if better options present
themselves.
Spiller is a different story.
He had one down week in Week-14, and everyone
bailed on him and some missed out on a huge
Fantasy Week-15. Spiller is Jamaal Charles/(old)Chris
Johnson-esque. A 50+ yard TD run waiting to
happen on every carry. Denver is highly
overrated as a defense...they are solid, but the
Tebow thing has swept the Broncos-D higher on
people's list more than they should have been.
Patriots RBs combined for 100+
yards rushing last week, Marion Barber
went for 108 yards rushing the week before,
Toby Gerhart 91 yards in Week-13, and
Ryan Mathews for 137 yards in Week-12. There
is no issue for opposing teams running (or
passing) on Denver. Spiller is a major talent,
and likely to see 20+ touches again. The only
reason Spiller was down in Week-14, was that SD
got up quick and the Bills abandoned the run
(not likely to be down bug against Tebow).
Spiller is capable of a
gigantic game, and you cannot bench him unless
you have an incredibly deep team.
