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"Who are players at peak value to
trade in Week-6?"
I'll
give you one at each position:
QB = Ryan Fitzpatrick
We
predicted the collapse a few weeks back,
and it has already started. In
Fitzpatrick's last two games, he has
averaged just 196.0 passing yards per
game, with only 1 TD and 1 INT total in
those two games. Fitzpatrick has 3 TDs
and 3 INTs total in his last 3 games. As
the defenses get tougher, Fitzpatrick's
lofty early numbers were bound to
melt...and we saw this same exact
pattern last year.
Fortunately, the Bills are a feel-good
story; and Fitzpatrick's overall numbers
are masking the developing problem of
lower performance against better quality
of opponent. Fitzpatrick hits
NYG-BYE-WAS-NYJ-MIA-NYJ-TEN-SD coming
up. Two match-ups with the Jets, plus
everyone else in that stretch has been
really good on defense....except Miami.
Fitzpatrick may be useful for just one
week in the next eight weeks. One more
bad/weak game will likely start to kill
off his current decent value. I'd much
rather have the despised Joe Flacco,
or even Matt Ryan, then I would
have Fitzpatrick upcoming.
RB = Jahvid Best
This
is the supreme, perfect time to trade
Jahvid Best. Any time a player has a
great play/event on a solo nationally
televised event, like Monday Night
Football, it is a wonderful thing to
create "hyper-inflation"
(hyperventilation that creates jacked up
values). That is Jahvid Best
right now, and every day that goes
by...that big run will be forgotten.
Take
away that nice 88-yard run last night,
and Best had 75 yards rushing on 11
carries last night. That would give him
a statistical pace of 11.3 carries for
45.3 yards rushing per game, in his last
3 games...with no TDs. Best is an
incredibly overrated runner, and the
Lions have been trying to partner him up
all year to split the duties...starting
with the high drafting of Mikel
Leshoure in April. Best is a 10 +/-
carry per game RB, who is good in the
passing game as well....he is not a
15-20+ carry a game RB.
Not
that Best is awful, he is just a limited
RB with a history of nagging injury
issues -- swapping him for something
more sure, but reviled (but formerly
elite) right now is brilliant -- like a
Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall,
etc. Not to give Best away, just flip
this house for a better house in a
better neighborhood from an owner who
can't make the payments anymore.
WR = A.J. Green and Dwayne Bowe
A.J. Green, like most rookies in
any sport, is over-hyped. Green is off
to a fast start to go along with the
"shiny new toy" appeal...and thus he has
great Fantasy Football standing in the
community currently. Green will be a
solid Fantasy Football WR, but is likely
at his 2011 peak value...or close. Green
has IND-BYE-SEA upcoming, but then it
all turns with
TEN-PIT-BAL-CLE-PIT-HOU...a stretch of
top CBs in the NFL, poised to lock down
Green.
Green
has done well against awful/dreadful
pass-defenses YTD. Racking up big games
against Denver when Champ Bailey
was out, Jacksonville, and Buffalo.
However, when Green faced the stout
49ers pass-defense...just 4 catches for
29 yards. When facing Cleveland opening
day, he had the one catch for a TD on
the trick play where there was no
defense facing him. If you can find a
sucker to take Green in exchange for a
somewhat tarnished elite WR like
DeSean Jackson, Stevie Johnson, or
Roddy White...I'd be all over
trading up here.
Dwayne Bowe is a very good NFL WR,
but the upcoming KC schedule is
potentially going to wipe, he and the
Chiefs off the map. Nothing against
Bowe, everything to do with the
schedule...and how poorly Matt Cassel
will perform within it. OAK-SD-MIA-DEN
after the Bye week is OK...but somewhere
in there a lot of Fantasy Football
writers are going to wake up (or
reiterate) and start talking about the
Chiefs killer schedule ahead --
NE-PIT-CHI-NYJ-GB...and then everyone
will be on the same story at the same
time, crushing Bowe's "escape value".
We've written about it several times,
neither Bowe nor Cassel have had a great
track record against good teams. Bowe
has 4 TDs in the past 3 games, and thus
is the perfect time to flip him
out...with an eye on the long term
picture.
TE = Jermaine Gresham
We
guided a few weeks ago that a Gresham
outbreak was probable given the
Jerome Simpson issues, and the ease
of schedule. Gresham has two TDs in the
past two games. He has reached a near
peak value. Just like A.J. Green,
Gresham should be OK vs. IND-BYE-SEA,
but then he hits the same
TEN-PIT-BAL-CLE-PIT-HOU rough patch
mentioned above. It's not so much
Gresham's fault, but it's a lot to ask a
rookie QB to go knockdown PIT 2x, TEN,
HOU, and BAL virtually all in a row. As
Andy Dalton lags, so will Gresham
and A.J. Green. We love Dalton,
but not in that stretch as a rookie.
DEF = Detroit Lions Defense
We're
all on the bandwagon, and I am a Lions
believer...no doubt. After their Monday
Night spectacle, and now the addition of
Nick Fairley...their hype-value
can't be any higher. The problem is the
schedule ahead. SF-ATL in the next two
weeks, and suddenly Alex Smith is
the smartest/non-turnover-ist QB in the
league, and Matt Ryan is solid of
course...low turnover probability is not
good for a Fantasy Football Team
Defense. What I really hate is the
playoff stretch run -- Weeks 12-14 when
some are desperately sprinting to the
playoffs, the Lions Defense faces
A.Rodgers-Brees-Adrian Peterson. They
should handle the Vikes, but that GB-N.O.
duo may wipe your season out before you
get to the Vikes match-up...then in the
Fantasy Super Bowl in Week-16, they face
Philip Rivers.
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