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So...Who
is the most overrated WR for Fantasy Football
2011?
Without
a doubt, the most overrated WR for Fantasy
Football 2011 is Anquan Boldin.
Boldin
is a fine NFL WR, but when Boldin was traded
to the Ravens in 2010 -- it led many to
the odd thought process that Boldin would
be even bigger for Fantasy Football in the
run-heavy Baltimore Ravens Offense than
he was in the more free-wheeling Arizona
Cardinals passing game for Fantasy Football...it
didn't pan out that way. Boldin averaged
8.2 (in our calcs) Fantasy Football PPG
(traditional scoring), and 12.3 PPG for
PPR leagues overall in 2010, which placed
him around 30th overall for scoring among
WRs for Fantasy Football based on PPG (depending
upon which scoring system you use). Boldin
definitely did not live up to his top-15
WR rankings in pre-Fantasy Football 2010
Drafts.
Boldin
in showing some signs of slowing down, as
would be expected. Boldin was never an elite
athlete to begin with. He had incredible
hands coming out of college in 2003, but
measured very slow for 40-yard speed and
for agility. Boldin has obviously overcome
the speed deficiencies in his career, but
the question is what about now? Will/has
all the injuries and natural physical skills
deterioration with age (31 years old this
season) now catch up to Boldin (or have
they already)? Do you want a slower, "possession"
WR for Fantasy Football...using a higher
draft pick to acquire it?
Last season
Boldin had a 64 catch, 837 yard, 7 TD season...and
played all 16 games. Overall, a fine season,
not an elite WR season. A deeper look at
the 2010 numbers might scare you a bit on
Boldin for 2011.
Let's do some "fuzzy math"
on Boldin's 2010 season...
1) If
we take out his game in 2010 Week-17, (we
don't put faith in Week-17 as a great indicator)
where Boldin had 2 receptions for 9 yards.
2) Plus
we take out Boldin's single best game of
2010 (by far!!) -- a Week-3 game against
Cleveland where Boldin had season-high's
in all categories with 8 receptions for
142 yards and 3 TDs. (three TDs in a game
is an anomaly for just about any player,
it's great...but not "normal").
Drop Boldin's
stats from games in Week 3 & 17 from 2010,
and Boldin's season averages would have
looked like:
-
3.9 receptions per game
(62 receptions annualized)
-
49.0 receiving yards
per game (784 yards annualized)
-
0.3 TDs per game (4.5
TDs annualized)
-
6.5 PPG, traditional
Fantasy Football scoring (1 fumble lost
in there)
-
10.3 PPG, PPR scoring
The stats
above are the per game totals of a top-50
WR for Fantasy Football, not a top 15-20
WR. It may not be mathematically fair to
look at Boldin this way, but it does show
that outside of his one huge game...he was
pretty mediocre overall in 2010.
Boldin
has had a great career, and is a fine veteran
WR...but his statistical trend is heading
south fast. Boldin did not have more than
5 catches in a game, in his last 11 games
played in 2010 (including playoffs)....averaging
just 2.9 catches and only 34.6 yards per
game in that span.
What about Boldin's 2011
outlook?
Boldin
is a year older, and the Ravens drafted
two top WR prospects in Maryland's Torrey
Smith and Indiana's Tandon Doss.
To go along with that, the Ravens have two
of the top young TEs in football in Dennis
Pitta and Ed Dickson. Boldin
is suddenly surrounded by more talented
receiving options. The Ravens didn't stop
there, most recently trading for the very
talented Lee Evans. All of these
Ravens receiving options are of a similar
style (to some degree) to Boldin (good "possession"
receiving options), only they are younger
and some of them better...and for sure most
all of them are faster/quicker than Boldin.
We are tracking Boldin
with a #50-60 overall ADP in Fantasy Football
Drafts right now, typically going right
around the 20th WR off the board. We think
there are plenty of other younger, more
talented WR-options that are available in
that Draft range around the 20th WR taken
-- most notably Percy Harvin (in
our current top-10) and Austin Collie
(in our current top-15).
The early
2011 schedule is brutal again for the Ravens
-- PIT, TEN, STL, NYJ and a Week-5 BYE.
Games with the Steelers and Jets would project
for fewer passing TD opportunities.
Flacco/Baltimore
faced the Steelers and Jets 4-times combined
last season (3 Steelers, 1 Jets), and Flacco
was much different (as any QB would be)
against these elite NFL defenses:
Two of
the first 4 games in 2011 might have very
limited opportunity for the Ravens Offense
for Fantasy Football, then followed with
a terrible/early Week-5 BYE. The first 5
games of 2011...and Boldin may not be useful
for 60% of them. Not a very good ROI early
on, and not a way you want to start a Fantasy
season.
Boldin
is solid, and he will have a great game
or two...but for as high as he is often
drafted, he is not a good 2011 Fantasy Football
Draft value.
Honorable Mentions --
Michael Crabtree,
Steve Breaston
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