|
"How stupid was your call against
DeMarco Murray this week?"
Fairly
stupid it would appear...
This
week.
Most
of the questions we had via email this
past week -- were based around what to do
between DeMarco Murray-Tashard
Choice-Maurice Morris-Keiland Williams.
We didn't heavily favor any of those
four options, but we did advise not
get too excited about Murray.
Media
hysteria will reign down this week for
Murray. All the makings are there -- an
incredible game, a rookie, a Dallas
Cowboy rookie, a big producer in
college. He will be hailed as the new
Tony Dorsett. We have Murray on 0.0% of
teams we are associated with, so there
is no decision for us to make...but we
are going to likely guide Week-8 output
lower than the rest of the world on
Murray this week.
Are we
stubborn, or stupid, or...? We are going
to make a case for a "tempered approach"
to DeMarco Murray...in fact, our
guidance would be to trade him this week
if you see a hysterical value. Why are
we so against the latest "next
greatest RB to ever play the game?"
Are you really going to tell me that
this is going to happen again next week?
Randall Cobb had two TDs on opening
day, and we guided that Cobb's value was
now an unfounded hysteria, and that it
was just a nice output blip....and many
blasted us for that after Week-1. Anyone
still have Randall Cobb from
their waiver pick-up in Week-2?
Not
saying that Murray is a dud, or a
waste...actually the upcoming schedule
is favorable. However, there has been no
sign of this type of outburst happening.
Up to now, Murray could not get out of
his own way -- 24 carries for 71 yards,
just 3.0 yards per carry...with his
longest run at only 8 yards. There
hasn't been a glimmer of this possible
outburst among Murray's first 24 career
carries.
This
monster game was against a hapless St.
Louis Rams team, a team that all but
quit as this game went on. What have RBs
done against the Rams in 2011 before
this big Murray game?
Week-1 = LeSean McCoy had 15
carries for 122 rushing yards and 1
TD...137 yards total
Week-2 = Brandon Jacobs and
Ahmad Bradshaw combined for 109
yards rushing and 171 yards overall
Week-3 = Ray Rice and
Ricky Williams combined for 121
yards rushing, and 205 yards total
Week-4 = Ryan Torain
literally walked off the inactive list
and ran for 135 yards, as
Torain-Helu-Hightower combined for 194
yards rushing, 198 yards total
Week-5 = the Rams best defensive
week, vs. a Bye
Week-6 = Ryan Grant and
James Starks combined for 74 yards
rushing, and 118 yards total
The
Rams have allowed 165.8 total yards per
game to the group listed above.
DeMarco Murray had 162 yards yards
in this Week-7 game, when you isolate
away the 91-yard TD run on his first
carry.
A RB
that has shown no pre-disposition to
this type of output prior, goes and
blows up the porous Rams (like everyone
else)...now we are all supposed to go
crazy? I guess we all were going crazy
over Ryan Torain a few weeks ago too....
I know
what some are saying -- "Murray was
awesome in college!" Our computer
analysis finds a flaw with that
assessment.
DeMarco Murray the Oklahoma years...
A huge
career for Murray at Oklahoma -- 3,685
career rushing yards and 65 TDs (rush +
rec + KR). He has to be great in the
NFL, right?
What
if I told you that in his last two
season at Oklahoma, Murray had six 100+
yard rushing games in 25 games/final 2
seasons (not a great pace in the world
of future NFL elite's). Of Murray's six
100+ yard rushing games in 2009-10,
Murray only ran for 100+ yards against
one team with a winning record...the Air
Force.
Murray
played in 16 conference games in his
final two seasons in college, with only
three 100+ yard rushing games...again,
none of those efforts against a team
with a winning record. You have to go
back to 2008, his Sophomore season,
where you can find a 100+ yard rushing
game against a conference team with a
winning record (the high pass/low
defense Texas Tech of Mike Leach's era).
In
Murray's toughest four games last year
(vs. Oklahoma State, Nebraska, U
Conn/Bowl Game, Florida State), he had
no single game with over 4.0 yards per
carry and an average of 71.0 rushing
yards per game. Playing in a
wide-open/heavy pass system like
Oklahoma...Murray (to us) had very
under-whelming output in college, when
we analyze it closer.
The 2011 NFL Draft
Murray
showed great speed at the NFL Combine
with a 4.37 time in the 40-yard dash.
However, he did not show very good
agility metrics. No doubt given the
space, Murray is going to outrun
defenders in a straight line, i.e. the
91-yard TD this week.
There
would appear to be a reason why Murray
faded to become a 3rd-Round draft pick
this past season. Not that the NFL has a
perfect track record on drafting, far
from it. Something doesn't add up for
his NFL draft stock to fall, where as
Murray's college stats and pre-hype
dictated a potential 1st-Round draft
pick level RB in the NFL.
How stupid do we feel?
In my
14-year-old son's 10-team Fantasy league
at school, we did jump on the computer
and add Murray from free agency real
quick in the 4th Quarter...we're not
stupid (open free agency period is
sweet!). However, our intent would be to
ride another possible good week against
Philly...or more importantly -- try to
package him up for something more
stable.
We are
certainly impressed with Murray's game
this week. We also know after the
91-yard run, Murray had 21 yards on his
next 9 carries in the first half. Later
he broke another 30+ yard big run
against a downtrodden Rams squad, on
his/Dallas's way to just beating down
the Rams in the 2nd-half.
We're
still skeptics on Murray, because the
computer tells us to be skeptical...and
sometimes the computer is wrong.
However, week-to-week human-hysteria is
not running a great track record by
comparison. We'll stick by our computer
analysis long-term on Murray...but for
this week, we're stupid.
|
