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"I Lost this Week,
so Should I....blah, blah, blah, blah (A
Call to Arms..)"
If you
won this week, you should still read
this.
Today
(post all Week-1 games), as it is every
year, my day is filled with two kinds of
people:
1)
People who want to discuss their week's
win, and how they knew "player-X" was
going to be big this year.
2)
People who lost, and now want to trade
every great player on their team for 2-3
other players who scored a TD, because
their star player didn't. They also want
to cut every non-elite player they have,
and pick up every player on waivers who
scored a TD.
You
know who doesn't win consistently in
Fantasy Football? Fantasy GMs who lost
in Week-1 and start chasing butterflies.
You
know who also loses consistently in
Fantasy Football? Fantasy GMs who won in
Week-1, and now think their team is
going to run the table this year.
You
know what will happen this week? Some
(0-1) teams will win this week, and feel
much better. Some (1-0) teams will lose
this week, and they will turn into the
panic'ers that Week-1 losers were.
Week-1
winners, you are not going 14 or 15 and
0. Week-1 losers, you are not going 0
and 14 or 15.
Cam
Newton is not going to throw for
6,000+ yards this year, nor is Tom
Brady going to throw for 8,000+
yards this year (well, maybe he
will...but I digress). Peyton Hillis,
Darren McFadden, Larry
Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Matt Ryan
and Antonio Gates will all not
score a total of zero TDs this year.
Randall Cobb, Ray Rice and Scott
Chandler will not score 32 TDs this
season. Mike Tolbert will not
score 48 TDs, maybe just 40-45. Ben
Roethlisberger is not going to
finish the year with 16 TDs and 48 INTs.
The
odds of A.J. Green being able to
find 15 more games of defenses falling
asleep is rather low, but Green is so
"amazing" that I'm sure he has some kind
of mind-trick to fool them all this
year...so scratch that, do bet on Green
to have 16 TDs all against no defense.
A.J. Green bash of the day,
check...
This
Week-1 waiver period is for acquiring
useable assets, not wholesale changes.
Think of many players right now as cats
with nine lives. Good players are going
to score 6-10 TDs on the season. More
mediocre to good players 2-4. Randall
Cobb just used up most all his "cat
lives" of his likely 2011 output for
this season in this one game. Players
with no TDs yet, it just means they are
"due." Fantasy Football Yin-Yang, if you
will. Jahvid Best used 9 lives in
the first 2 weeks last year, and left
many holding the bag the rest of the
way.
Look
for momentary hot players to grab, and
trade -- Cam Newton is an
excellent example. If you know you can
flip them, try to get them.
Look
for huge talent upside players everyone
else is over-looking. Ed Dickson,
TE Ravens, who might be a 60+ catch, 8
TD guy this year. Antonio Brown,
WR Steelers, who had 9 targets coming
off a great preseason. Eric Decker,
WR Broncos, who could be a WR-1 with
Brandon Lloyd hampered for a
bit...or longer.
Don't
chase the flashes in the pan and/or
low-upside players, just because you're
familiar with their names...Devery
Henderson, Earnest Graham, Jacoby Jones,
etc.
I lost
a game in a critical high-stakes league
around 10pm Monday. Everything was going
according to plan this week. Then,
Tom Brady hit Wes Welker for
the 99-yard TD, and my opponent had
both...game over, a Fantasy Football
Week-1 loss on a 25-point swing in a
matter of seconds. I never flinched or
swore. I probably just shook my head for
a second.
I was
down 50+ points in a game last year, and
I had Michael Vick to go for
Monday Night Football...and he scored 6
TDs. I've been on the amazing side of
things good and bad, I know things
happen out of my control.
The
whole time Vick was going crazy that
Monday Night...I was watching, but was
also studying tape and data from the
Sunday games for waivers that week. I
realize there are plenty of talented NFL
players, but not all of them can I fit
on my Fantasy Football team, at the
right time, every week. I am going to
lose some regular season games, and lose
many a playoff game. I tip my cap to
Brady/Welker and my opponent, I know
what it's like to be on the good side of
that fortune...so I'm not going to pout
about it...I'm too busy evaluating
Eric Decker, David Nelson and
Donald Jones for next week.
I
remember Larry Bird was the coach
of the Indiana Pacers way back in 1998.
The Pacers were a very good team, but
they could not get past the Michael
Jordan Bulls. The Pacers were down 2
points with 2.4 seconds left, and the
Pacers had the ball to inbound. It was a
critical Game-4.
The
Pacers came out of the huddle, inbounded
to Reggie Miller, who took a
quick fade-away three-pointer...swish.
It was amazing no matter who you were a
fan of. As they showed the replay, I saw
something that I will never forget...and
I will never forget the image as long as
I live, in part because I think it was
so cool...and it was a life lesson.
The
replay showed Miller all excited,
actually jumping up and down in circles.
The Pacers faithful exploded to their
feet after having stopped time with a
collective inhale right before that. The
roar was deafening. Basically, I
remember all that collective pent-up
energy for the Pacers for years exploded
all in that one defining moment...but
what I remember is the Larry Bird's
reaction to all this.
Larry Bird was standing on the
sidelines, and they show the replay --
everyone is going crazy...fans,
assistant coaches, bench players,
starting players, commentators (Bob
Costas, Doug Collins), and most of all
Reggie Miller. What does Larry
Bird do during this magical moment?
Nothing.
They
have a camera shot right on Larry
Bird, and you can see everyone in
the place frozen stiff like statues
behind him...and then moments later
everyone is erupting, going absolutely
bonkers...except Bird. He never changes
facial expression, or moves, or even
blinks. He glances up at the clock to
see how much time was left. He knew it
wasn't over yet. He knew the Bulls had
0.7 seconds and Michael Jordan,
and he knew this was just Game-4.
Larry Bird knew there was still work
to do, and he acted like he been there
before. Please enjoy this clip of that
game (below). It's 2+ minutes long. Do
yourself a favor and you will
enjoy...but watch from the very
beginning to the end. It will take a
moment, take time to drink it all
in...you'll be amazed (even if you know
the moment I speak of, watching it again
was just as amazing as it was 10+ years
ago). See if you could maintain that
composure in the gravity and exuberance
of that moment.
Reggie Miller Game
Winning 3 Pointer on Michael Jordan
vs.Bulls [Game 4 '98 ECF's] - YouTube
Most
Fantasy Football GMs, act like every
week is their last. Every bad play is
God's way of punishing them. Every TD or
big run for them, is a figurative
life-preserver. Don't be that guy, or
gal.
When
you get over-emotional about Fantasy
Football, you make bad decisions. Now is
the time to do what Larry Bird
did in that clip...not what Reggie
Miller did. You won this week,
good...there are only 13-14 more weeks
to go, enough time to go (1-12). There
is more work to do.
You
lost in Week-1? Now, is the time to do
what Michael Jordan did after that
miraculous Reggie Miller dagger.
Jordan almost came back after the
absolute bedlam and nearly sunk the game
winning long-distance shot. It
ultimately didn't matter that Jordan
lost that one game. The Bulls went on to
win the series.
It's a
long season. This time last year, people
were reluctantly putting waiver claims
in on Eagles backup QB Michael Vick...waiting
to see if Kevin Kolb was going to
be cleared to play in Week-2. Andy
Reid defiantly said, "Kevin Kolb
is our starter" almost a year to the
day. Where are Vick and Kolb now?
Final
instructions, watch this clip...
"Nobody Likes a Crybaby" Clip - Wall
Street: Money Never Sleeps - YouTube
Whether you won or lost in Week-1, put
on your helmet, buckle your chinstrap
and get back to work smartly improving
the team for Week-2. You are likely
going to lose 3-5 games and still be
fine for the playoffs. Don't panic about
one week! Take advantage of other's
panic, not the opposite.
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