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Who is a Fantasy
Football player everyone hates, that you
guys love?
I have often jokingly referred to secret
meetings that are held (at an
undisclosed location) by the mainstream
sports media. A fictitious meeting where
it seems everyone decided to have the
same opinion about a player, despite a
lack of information, looking at
historical trends/data, or simply
defying the actual/obvious facts.
The
player I am going to name here actually
started out 2010 as everyone's favorite
break-out QB for 2010 (after their
secret meeting), but to the media it
didn't happen the way they wanted
it...so I think this player is being
"hated" out of some kind of spite.
To us,
there is no better example of this than
Joe Flacco. Especially, when we
compare what Fantasy Football QBs that
the "secret meeting" folks are pushing
in his place (Freeman, Cassel, etc).
Our
2010 preseason projection for Flacco was
that he would have early-season Fantasy
Football scoring woes -- and we were on
the money. Flacco was the media darling
Fantasy Football QB of preseason 2010.
Flacco was the hot "it" QB name. Our
concern on Flacco was the fact that we
foresaw a dreadful early schedule for
Flacco. We advised clients not to touch
the over-valued Flacco...but did profess
our like/love for him, and advised that
the proper Flacco play in the 2010
Fantasy Football Draft would be to pass
on him, but then attempt to acquire him
cheaply via trade after the first few
weeks to have as a great 2nd-QB.
Flacco
opened 2010 with two road games -- at
the NY Jets, at Cincy (a top defense the
year prior), a home game with Cleveland
(Rob Ryan) and then at Pitt.
Three road games in the first 4 games,
and in our computer analysis -- Flacco
was facing 3 of the top QB-squashing
defenses/great DB talent in the NFL/FF
(NYJ, CIN, PIT).
Flacco's stats the first 4 games of
2010:
Flacco's start was a Fantasy Football
nightmare, and probably a season killer
for many Fantasy GMs. Their starting QB
(Flacco) opens the season with
approximately 6 Fantasy Football points
(4pts per pass TD) at the Jets, then
follows that with approximately 3 points
in Week-2 versus the Bengals.
Predictably, Flacco-panic for Fantasy
Football ensued. *Flacco/Ravens did go
(3-1) in that stretch...
Fantasy Football owners turned against
Flacco at that point. If you owned him,
you would have traded him plus more for
a Kyle Orton 3-4 weeks into 2010.
Flacco, ostensibly, killed many 2010
Fantasy Football seasons...before they
started.
So
now, we hate Flacco. In a similar way to
the manner in which I dislike RB Mike
Bell (really it's Sean Payton's
fault) for stealing all of Pierre
Thomas's (who had on many teams) hard
work/short yardage TDs in 2009. I have
no rational reason to dislike Mike
Bell, but it exists...it's human
nature, and it's really human nature in
the media. The mainstream sports media
called for Flacco to be elite in 2010,
and he started slow; therefore, he must
be crucified.
The
problem with crucifying him, or the
problem with us hearing all this
negative Flacco sentiment ("he's just
not ready for the big time", "he's just
not as good as he should be", etc.) is
that we tend to "buy" into it. We assume
-- "the media follows this all day,
every day, they must know what they are
doing...
Joe
Flacco's 2010 stats after the tough
4-game schedule start (Games 5-15,
excluding Game 16 as we always do):
Tom
Brady threw for 64.7% Comp Pct,
253.6 yards per game, 25 TDs and 2 INTs
in that same games 5-15 span with 19.6
Fantasy Football PPG. Brady was better,
but Flacco was right in the same
neighborhood of excellence. However, it
has been ordained...Brady is a god, and
yet Flacco isn't even recognized as a
top-10 QB. Brady hasn't won a playoff
game in the past 2 seasons, going
(0-2)...including being drop-kicked by
Flacco/Ravens in 2009. Flacco in that
same 2-year span is (2-2) in the
playoffs...his crime being that he lost
to the Super Bowl runners up in each of
the last 2 seasons in the 2nd-Round of
the playoffs. Brady hasn't seen the
2nd-Round of the playoffs since 2007.
Is
Flacco better or on par with Brady? No.
Should Flacco be tracking as the 14-17th
QB for Fantasy Football? No.
The
Ravens have upgraded their WR/TE core
via trade and the NFL Draft the past two
seasons, and Flacco is a
proven/on-the-rise QB commodity.
However, the media attention has turned
toward new QB "darlings", since Flacco
so rudely let the media down for a few
games in 2010. Josh Freeman
and/or Matt Cassel are being
promoted heavily by the sports
media...and they are also often being
taken ahead of Flacco in the current
Fantasy Football Drafts...are you
kidding me? Even Matt Ryan being
40-50 Fantasy Football Draft spots ahead
of Flacco is an insult/a terrible
valuation discrepancy.
However...
However, the problem with Flacco in 2011
is...the same 2010 problem, is likely
going to happen again in 2011.
Flacco
opens with the Steelers. Only Tom
Brady was able to put a full
beat-down on the Steelers defense last
year with 32.3 points scored in Week-10.
The next-best (after Brady) Fantasy
Football scoring effort for any QB
against Pittsburgh in 2010 -- Joe
Flacco with 16.1 points (4pt pass
TD) in Week-13 (12.3 in Week-4 against
PIT).
After
PIT, there are two good matchups with
TEN and STL...then another QB nightmare
in Week-4 vs. NYJ. Flacco posted 6.2
Fantasy Football points against NYJ in
last year's opener. Flacco has PIT and
NYJ in the first 4 games, followed by a
Week-5 Bye week. Essentially, Flacco is
unplayable in Fantasy Football for 3 of
his first 5 games. However, just like
2010...the schedule opens up and allows
Flacco to be a top Fantasy Football QB
after that.
The
2011 advice is the same on Flacco as it
was in 2010, pass on Flacco in the 2011
Fantasy Football Draft...but do look
toward acquiring him on the cheap around
Week 4-5. There is one other unique
twist on a scenario of what to do with
Flacco for Fantasy Football 2011...
Kevin Kolb and Joe Flacco sitting in a
tree, k-i-s-s-i-n-g...
Let's
say you subscribe to the, "I'll pass on
the elite Fantasy Football QBs, and take
one of the next tier of QBs (Big Ben,
Rivers, etc) theory"...but alas,
something goes wrong, and you miss out
on this QB fallback plan. We have
proposed a "plan-C" for a Fantasy GM
passing/missing on QB tiers 1 and 2. A
unique 2011 Fantasy Football QB play if
they are stuck in the
Ryan-Stafford-Freeman Fantasy
Football QB tier.
The
strategy is to take Kevin Kolb
6th-Round, and Flacco in the 7th-Round
(or vice-versa). They almost can be had
in some leagues at the 7th-8th Rounds
respectively. Why would we recommend
something so crazy? It's something we
call "QB-Harmony". Sometimes we find
scenarios where two QBs schedules align
so well, their combined usage may exceed
a season-long run of a
Rodgers/Vick/Brees. We think we may
have found harmony with Kolb-Flacco.
As we
mentioned before, Flacco is not good for
the first 5 weeks of 2011. At the same
time, Kolb has a cruise control schedule
of CAR-WAS-SEA-NYG-MIN. The wonderful
harmonization doesn't stop there...
-
Week-6, Kolb on a
BYE...Flacco vs. Houston.
-
Week-7-8, Kolb's 2011
nightmare vs. PIT-BAL back-to-back.
It's Flacco's nirvana, with JAC-ARI.
-
Week-9, Flacco finds
PIT again, that's OK...Kolb is vs.
STL
-
Week-10, Kolb goes to
Philly, that's OK...Flacco has SEA
-
Week 11-16, it's a
full buffet. Both QBs have
reasonable/good matchups for the
most part...so plenty to choose
from, with Kolb having the better
weather related schedule.
We
think Flacco is being hit below the belt
in the media. Their question shouldn't
be -- "is Flacco the wrong QB for the
Ravens?" It should be, how close is
Flacco to possibly becoming another
Tom Brady? All that lofty concept
aside, Flacco is definitely better than
tracking as the 14-17th QB in Fantasy
Football Drafts in 2011...so he presents
tremendous Draft value. We like him as a
2nd-QB for our roster, with the upside
after Week-5...and we love him as a
2nd-QB paired with Kolb.
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