FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT 2011 ~ Question of the Day

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"The Dallas and Detroit RB situation, for the RB desperate..."

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FANTASY FOOTBALL METRICS - AMAZON.COM Question of the Day

 

By R.C. Fischer
Release Date:
  10/18/2011

"The Dallas and Detroit RB situation, for the RB desperate..."

"The Dallas and Detroit RB situation, for the RB desperate..."

Felix Jones is anticipated to miss 2-4 weeks (I know you are shocked that Felix is hurt, this never happens), and Jahvid Best may miss as much as the rest of the season with a concussion (sad for the young man, but we have cautioned Best injury concerns all season as a reason to trade on higher valuation). The question is what should you do with these situations, and is there any Fantasy Football opportunity this week?

Detroit:

Detroit has 3 viable options at RB, and there is no clear-cut path to know for certain who the main RB will be...even if they announce a "starter" (probably Maurice Morris), that doesn't mean anything 10-30 plays into the game with Detroit if Morris has 22 yards on 9 carries. The way we would play the Lions RB situation:

1) The RB most like Jahvid Best, and that we think is better than Jahvid Best, is Jerome Harrison. Harrison has been a proven big-time performer in the past with Cleveland. Harrison had a huge end to the 2009 season, including a 34 carry, 286 yard rushing, 3 TD game in Week-15...and he had three consecutive 100+ yard rushing performances to end the 2009 season.

Harrison is by far the most talented RB, but also the most troubled...rumored issues off-the-field and work-ethic issues. If I could only have one Lions RB in this waiver period, it would be Harrison, but that's betting on the come that he would eventually overtake the others, because likely he will not be announced as a starter.

2) Keiland Williams is a very talented RB as well -- a big RB at 5-11 and 230 pounds. Williams can pound it, and play in the passing game. We have touted all season that Keiland could be a "poor man's Mike Tolbert" at some point for the Lions...which has not developed as of yet. It's more in play now. He may be the red-zone option only for the Lions.

3) Maurice Morris is likely to be the starter. He is the veteran presence, and I'm really not that interested. If Morris were to start, he would be OK...but we don't see as big an upside as we do with Harrison.

The safe play for Week-7 is Morris. The long-term best bet to break-out is Harrison. The likelihood is that all three will rotate around for a bit and leave you tearing your hair out. In Dynasty leagues, I squat on Harrison to see what happens as he could be a 100+ yard a game RB...where the others not as likely.

 

Dallas:

1) You have to put your chips on Tashard Choice here. He filled in with 100-yard rushing game last year when Jones went down, but Choice has been erratic and a disappointment his entire career. Choice is the veteran presence, and is the more talented (on paper, to us) RB remaining on the Cowboys roster.

2) DeMarco Murray is where society at large will go, because oh how we love the unknown rookie RB. Murray has been completely unimpressive in 24 carries YTD, but it's not fair to make a full judgment based on that. We are basing our distaste of Murray on poor scouting grades in our college scouting formulas. One of the big red-flags on Murray in our system -- weaker performance against better competition, and low yards per carry. He had great college stats and ran a fast 40-yard dash...but there is a lot more troubling data behind that. However, all you will hear about is the fast 40-time and big stats.

3) The dark horse in this race is Phillip Tanner, a UDFA RB out of Middle Tennessee State. Tanner was the best Cowboys RB in the preseason, by far. However, he is also a rookie from a small college...tough to project/elevate him to the bright lights of Dallas right away, but if you see him start to get a few carries be aware of the name. A high-achiever in college, but slower speed times at his workouts/pro days (he is coming of a knee injury).

What is likely to happen; is a Choice-Murray tandem of the hot hand getting the ball. I would lean Choice on the experience factor, and the assumption that Murray is not a future star...just useful. Everyone is going Murray as sure as I type this...I will pass on Murray unless in a league where that is the only lottery ticket available.

 

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By R.C. Fischer
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