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"The Dallas and Detroit RB
situation, for the RB desperate..."
Felix Jones is anticipated to
miss 2-4 weeks (I know you are shocked
that Felix is hurt, this never happens),
and Jahvid Best may miss
as much as the rest of the season with a
concussion (sad for the young man, but
we have cautioned Best injury concerns
all season as a reason to trade on
higher valuation). The question is what
should you do with these situations, and
is there any Fantasy Football
opportunity this week?
Detroit:
Detroit has 3 viable options at RB, and
there is no clear-cut path to know for
certain who the main RB will be...even
if they announce a "starter" (probably
Maurice Morris), that
doesn't mean anything 10-30 plays into
the game with Detroit if Morris has 22
yards on 9 carries. The way we would
play the Lions RB situation:
1) The
RB most like Jahvid Best,
and that we think is better than
Jahvid Best, is Jerome
Harrison. Harrison has been a
proven big-time performer in the past
with Cleveland. Harrison had a huge end
to the 2009 season, including a 34
carry, 286 yard rushing, 3 TD game in
Week-15...and he had three consecutive
100+ yard rushing performances to end
the 2009 season.
Harrison is by far the most talented RB,
but also the most troubled...rumored
issues off-the-field and work-ethic
issues. If I could only have one Lions
RB in this waiver period, it would be
Harrison, but that's betting on the come
that he would eventually overtake the
others, because likely he will not be
announced as a starter.
2)
Keiland Williams is a very
talented RB as well -- a big RB at 5-11
and 230 pounds. Williams can pound it,
and play in the passing game. We have
touted all season that Keiland could be
a "poor man's Mike Tolbert"
at some point for the Lions...which has
not developed as of yet. It's more in
play now. He may be the red-zone option
only for the Lions.
3)
Maurice Morris is likely to
be the starter. He is the veteran
presence, and I'm really not that
interested. If Morris were to start, he
would be OK...but we don't see as big an
upside as we do with Harrison.
The
safe play for Week-7 is Morris. The
long-term best bet to break-out is
Harrison. The likelihood is that all
three will rotate around for a bit and
leave you tearing your hair out. In
Dynasty leagues, I squat on Harrison to
see what happens as he could be a 100+
yard a game RB...where the others not as
likely.
Dallas:
1) You
have to put your chips on Tashard
Choice here. He filled in with
100-yard rushing game last year when
Jones went down, but Choice has been
erratic and a disappointment his entire
career. Choice is the veteran presence,
and is the more talented (on paper, to
us) RB remaining on the Cowboys roster.
2)
DeMarco Murray is where
society at large will go, because oh how
we love the unknown rookie RB. Murray
has been completely unimpressive in 24
carries YTD, but it's not fair to make a
full judgment based on that. We are
basing our distaste of Murray on poor
scouting grades in our college scouting
formulas. One of the big red-flags on
Murray in our system -- weaker
performance against better competition,
and low yards per carry. He had great
college stats and ran a fast 40-yard
dash...but there is a lot more troubling
data behind that. However, all you will
hear about is the fast 40-time and big
stats.
3) The
dark horse in this race is Phillip
Tanner, a UDFA RB out of Middle
Tennessee State. Tanner was the best
Cowboys RB in the preseason, by far.
However, he is also a rookie from a
small college...tough to project/elevate
him to the bright lights of Dallas right
away, but if you see him start to get a
few carries be aware of the name. A
high-achiever in college, but slower
speed times at his workouts/pro days (he
is coming of a knee injury).
What
is likely to happen; is a Choice-Murray
tandem of the hot hand getting the ball.
I would lean Choice on the experience
factor, and the assumption that Murray
is not a future star...just useful.
Everyone is going Murray as sure as I
type this...I will pass on Murray unless
in a league where that is the only
lottery ticket available.
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