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Generally, how
high would you take a Team-Defense in
the 2011 Fantasy Football Draft?
In general I have been
recommending to clients one of two
strategies.
First, if you are a
fan of taking the higher-rated defenses
(PIT, NYJ, GB, etc), don't be
embarrassed to take them a little higher
than most would recommend.
The "unwritten rule"
is not to take a team-defense in a
traditional 12-team Fantasy Football
Draft until after the 8th, but
preferably the 10th Round. When we look
at the relative statistical value of
each Fantasy Football player/draft
asset...the top Team-Defenses come in
around a reasonable value in and around
the 9th-10th Round. However, if you are
really locked on a GB, NYJ, PIT...and
you want them "bad," jump up in the
8th-9th Round to take them. I would
recommend that strategy on two-fronts --
(1) if there are no great values left on
your board in the 8th-9th Round, that
have luckily fallen to you, and (2) if
the rest of the players you are
targeting are likely players you will
get in all the remaining rounds...then
why not secure the Team-Defense you want
now?
Fantasy Football GMs
that jump up to the 4th-5th-6th Round
for a Team-Defense, I think are wasting
the value of the draft pick assets
available in those spots. The 7th-Round
is probably a little too soon as
well...but I could see it.
Our second (and
preferred) strategy -- if there is a
team-defense that faces terrible QBs
right off the bat, and they are not on
any "expert" lists. Then, you can plan
to take that team-defense in the 14th or
15th-Round, leaving you with the other
13-14 Rounds to acquire all the other
talent you want...feeling secure in the
fact that your "un-loved" (by others)
team-defense will be there in the later
rounds. I prefer hopping team-defenses,
by taking those undervalued NFL defenses
based on matchups and looking two-steps
ahead for my next one...we often
recommend carrying two defenses on a
traditional 15-man roster, and playing
the best matchups.
For my money, a decent
NFL defense vs. a bad QB/offense is
better (for Fantasy Football) than a
great NFL defense against a good/great
QB/offense.
There are several
great under-the-radar team-defense
options to do this with to start 2011...
1) Arizona Cardinals
-- they were actually a top-10 Fantasy
Football Defense last year (depending
upon your scoring system). This year
they start with Newton, Beck/Grossman,
T.Jackson/Whitehurst. Followed by Eli
Manning, who had the most INTs thrown
last season. A great 3-4 week play.
2) Houston Texans --
we think the Texans are going to
dominate as a defense this year, but
they have a rough 4-game schedule
start...or at least they did. If it is
Kerry Collins (and not Peyton), then
Henne to start...then I love the Texans
for the first 2 weeks. We think the
Texans could be so good on defense this
season, that they may be worth holding
on your bench in Week 3 & 4 versus
Brees/Roethlisberger...then running most
of the rest of the 2011 season with
them. If we're wrong, you can always
drop them for someone else.
3) Cleveland Browns --
a very solid team-defense for Fantasy
Football last year. Their projected
start is versus Dalton, K. Collins,
Henne, and Hasselbeck.
4) San Francisco --
opening with the worst QB in the NFL,
Tavaris Jackson. This is a one-week play
(Romo the next week).
My bet/strategy always
is that my 3-4-5+ team-defense hopping,
"Frankenstein conglomeration" will out
score (for Fantasy Football) your one
steady team-defense all season scenario.
However, it's much harder homework to do
all season...and not for the faint of
heart.
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