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What do I do with
the Arian Foster injury situation now?
None of us knows the
true severity of the situation. There is
the twitter controversy, there is the
ESPN opinion, and there is Foster's side
of the story...but this is starting to
give me flashbacks of last season when
Knowshon Moreno had preseason
hamstring issues, started the season,
but then disappeared for a few games in
Weeks 3-5.
Pre-Draft
Our first reaction to
this, is the same advice we have been
giving for months...Foster is great, but
he has one season of this performance
under his belt and has been an injury
issue going back to college.
If have the #1 pick,
you have to lean toward the sure thing
in Adrian Peterson.
If you're sitting at
the #2 pick, and AP is gone...then this
decision is very murky/unsettling. I'm
either trading out of that spot, or I
would go a little earlier than I should
to take Aaron Rodgers in a
pass-favoring league (6 pts per pass TD
and/or 300+ yard bonuses). In a
non-pass-favoring league, I would take
Jamaal Charles. In a PPR league,
I would take LeSean McCoy.
If you are sitting at
#4-6, we are starting to see Foster fall
that far...and it's decision time. I
would recommend now that the severity of
the injury is in question, and it can
tend to be a nagging issue...I'd likely
pass on Foster still for a more sure
thing. Especially, given the other
available talent still there.
At the #6+ pick in the
Fantasy Football Draft, I'd have to
consider rolling the dice. Knowing he
may not play Week-1.
It's also not a crime
to just avoid this situation completely,
and may be the wisest thing to do.
The
Foster-insurance plan...
If I made Foster a
1st-Round pick right now, it would be
under the condition that I also took
Ben Tate a little earlier as
"Foster-insurance". The whole Texans RB
situation could get very murky after
this week.
Steve Slaton
may run for 100+ yards this week and
will send people into a tizzy if he
does, but we feel if he does -- he will
potentially be traded.
Derrick Ward
may be named the Week-1 starter, because
he is a savvy veteran and physically
big-RB in the style of Foster. We feel
if he is named the starter, it may only
be for show (4-8 carries).
Ben Tate is the
ultra-talent of the group. Tate scored
with a future elite RB rating for us in
our computer scouting models in 2010.
Tate was drafted high by the Texans in
2010, not because they were in love with
their RB situation. Tate had an ankle
injury that took away his entire 2010.
When Tate finally hit the field 2 weeks
ago in the preseason, he blew everyone
away. The real talent behind Foster is
Tate...but it's a risk given
inexperience and coming off a
2010-injury. However, he looked as
dominant as a RB could in his 2011-debut
a few weeks ago.
I already have Foster!
If
you've already drafted, and you have
Foster...there is nothing you can really
do. If someone in your league would give
you 90-100+% value in a trade, I would
execute it.
To
panic sell Foster at a 50% value, is
just not smart business at this point.
The upside is too great. A 2010-Foster
performance for just 12-weeks of 2011 is
still a valuable commodity.
If you
already have Foster, you have to attempt
to acquire the Ben Tate insurance
policy...and that's not going to be an
easy chore in most leagues at the
moment.
I don't already have
Foster...
It's
time for the sharks to circle here. I
would be kicking the tires on Foster, to
see how desperate a Fantasy GM might be
right now. If I could be on the Rick
Harrison side of the Pawn Stars
counter, me and Chumlee would be
hustling right now. Especially, if you
already took Ben Tate in the
Fantasy Football Draft...bringing on a
drastically reduced Foster might be a
nice card to fill your Texans RB "inside
straight" with.
Overall, you should feel
panic...but don't act on it
We
have been recommending not to take
Foster at the # 1-2 spot, up until now,
so not many of my clients have him right
now. However, I do have a few that got
Foster at #3-4 overall. My message to
them -- this sucks, but do not panic.
As the
season unfolds, a Peyton Hillis
or a LeGarrette Blount type
out-of-nowhere story a la 2010 will
reveal itself...so there are those
opportunities still to come. Fantasy GMs
are potentially going to panic over the
(tough schedule induced) starts by
Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Felix Jones,
Steven Jackson, etc...some of them
may be available at a discount Week 1-2.
This Foster situation is a blow right
now, but opportunities (as always) will
be available for you to scramble your
way out of trouble.
If you
have Foster -- all you can do now is
pray, try to acquire Ben Tate,
and look at long-shot available RBs
un-taken right now and try to maybe pick
up a "lottery ticket" RB while dropping
some other position.
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