*An on-going series of putting college QBs in our mathematical analysis. We don’t have all the needed data until the 2011 NFL Combine results, but we can assume some of it (for now) and we have all the game performance/statistics.

See this link for details on the College QB rating system --  Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

ARTICLE:

Just based on our formula, taking 2009 as Christian Ponder's final college season -- Ponder would have been our #2 rated QB for the 2010 Draft, behind #1 Sam Bradford. Both Ponder and Bradford would have also scored within our system's future NFL QB "success range". Bradford rating as a strong potential future elite, Ponder rated as potentially good, possibly great.

For those who don't live football every second of the day and are just tuning their mind into some of these 2011 QB names -- you might think, "if you have Ponder rated so high, why don't we hear much about him (Ponder)?". How fast news cycles and fanfare can run? Leading up to a November 2009 game against Clemson, Ponder was discussed as a leave early for the pros QB (as a Junior). Ponder missed some practice and was injured going into that fateful 2009 Clemson game. Ponder threw 4 picks and had his season ended via injury in that very same 2009 Clemson game. Forcing the end of his possible 2010 Draft story.

Ponder was then a pre-2010 season "Heisman Hopeful". He had a bad game early 2010 against Oklahoma and went on to have elbow problems off and on all 2010 -- all that, and off the major radar screen Ponder has pretty much gone since. I say all this not to defend Ponder, or "push" him...it's just information.  I'm noting all this because I had also forgotten/didn't know about some of this info on Ponder. I don't watch 1,000 football games a weekend, nor worry about the hype a media darling of the moment is getting (a la Blaine Gabbert, who should not be such a universal #1 QB in 2011...but seems to be for most all media). It is just some background -- Christian Ponder at one time had a bigger hype going. A media or fan push is nice, but it isn't always accurate -- which is why we just look at the numbers for a judgment call.

Christian Ponder is a statistical anomaly in our system analysis. We actually have Christian Ponder rated twice in our system. There is the very accurate, potentially good/great projecting forward Christian Ponder...and then his "evil-twin" QB, a less accurate, little more turnover prone Christian Ponder -- one who projects to be an NFL flop based on the data.

It's not a story of split personality within the last season. It's a 2009 vs. a 2010 season results issue. The issue being, almost all QBs have a much better Senior season then they do their Junior season. Which is totally logical, due to more maturity and familiarity with their system, etc. Only for Ponder -- he was near incredible as a Junior, and very mediocre as a Senior (in our mathematic evaluations).

The problem likely stems from the multiple injuries -- ranging from a rib and shoulder injuries late in 2009 (ended season early) and elbow issues for most all of 2010. In the 2010 Bowl Game for Florida State (vs. South Carolina), Ponder left early with a concussion, thus ending his season and career...injured. I cannot statistically quantify injuries or recovery from them. There is such a big statistical drop from 2009 to 2010, with serious injuries wedged in there -- it will be hard to get a great read from his performance data.

Ponder's overall stats and passing metrics (all games) in 2010 vs. 2009:

Christian Ponder:	Comp	Att	Comp Pct	Yards	TDs	INTs		Yards per Comp	Pass Att per TD	Pass Att per INT
2009 Jr	227	330	68.8%	2,717	14	7		12.0	23.6	47.1
2010 Sr	184	299	61.5%	2,044	20	8		11.1	15.0	37.4

Within our mathematical model, where we analyze just based on tougher opponents/winning record opponents -- Ponder's number got even better against better competition in his Junior year -- that's a sign of a potential elite NFL QB. However, in his Senior season his metrics collapsed as the competition/opponent improved.

Based on his 2009 Junior season in our grading system, Ponder is a borderline future "very good" QB with a chance to be very good/NFL elite. Based on his 2010 Senior season stats, Ponder would be considered a likely NFL mediocre or likely NFL "wash out" from our system.

If I took only the best metrics from either 2009/2010 season to make one perfect utopia season -- Ponder could be a star, a very high rated QB in our algorithm model. I'm not sure what is the fair thing to do, just look at the injury riddled 2010 or hop back to his great 2009 or look at a total of both. As well, will these injuries haunt Ponder forever (something I can't really quantify)?

 

The 2010 Red-Flags

In 2010, Ponder wasn't loaded with red-flags in our system as much as he just had nothing special for passing metrics to speak of; just mediocre ones -- ones not translating to future NFL stardom. The one category he improved upon from his Junior to Senior season (essentially the only one) is with a 16.5 Pass Attempt per Passing TD metric in games against teams with a winning record. That is in-line with the NFL future elite QBs in our system, but nothing else the 2010 Ponder had among our passing metrics was in an elite class. They weren't awful, just not a standout.

From a physical standpoint, Ponder is questionable at 6'2.1" height and not historically great on a few other physical metrics either. 

 

Up & Down against tougher competition

In Ponder's 4 toughest games of 2010 (at Oklahoma, at NC State, at Maryland and Florida), Ponder had decent numbers with a few scary ones:

• 56.6% Completion Percentage, most future good/great NFL QBs will still throw 60%+ in their toughest games

• 5 TDs and 3 INTs, is an OK ratio...but just 1.25 Passing TDs per game is not exciting either

• 21.2 Pass Attempts per TD, a weaker metric performance among the future NFL greats in college

Take out the early 2010 season Oklahoma game, in which maybe Ponder was still coming back into form from his prior injuries. It's not fair in our system to outguess the games and make judgments on how a QB was "feeling". If you did just look at the NC State, Maryland and Florida late 2010 season, 3-game/stiffer competition tally for Ponder -- it looks a lot better:

• 62.8% Competition Percentage

• 5 TDs and just 1 INT

• A Passing TD for every 15.6 Pass Attempts, which is within the range of what future NFL elites put up on a regular basis in college

• 12.0 Yards per completion, again within the range of the future elites

Every angle I try to take on Ponder, I get a read in a different direction -- always forcing me to think "is this injury related or not"? It is really very difficult to get a projection on Christian Ponder.

 

Amazing his Junior year before the injury in 2009

Ponder was simply amazing before a November 2009 game against Clemson. A game in which leading up to it he missed practices with a rib injury, and then ultimately in that Clemson game he was knocked out for the rest of the season. Ponder's stats in 2009 pre-Clemson (games total):

• 13 TDs and 3 INTs

• 69.3% Completion Percentage

• 4 of 8 games with 300+ yards passing, 7 of 8 games with 260+ yards passing

• 6 game stretch with NO interceptions

Ponder really was on his was to an amazing season in 2009. If injury free, Ponder could have pushed for 4,000+ yards passing on the season with an amazingly high completion percentage. Unfortunately, he got injured in 2009 and then struggled on and off in 2010.

 

2011 Senior Bowl MVP

Just as a side note, Ponder was named MVP of the 2011 Senior Bowl. He was the only QB to throw a TD in the game, actually he had 2 Passing TDs total. In his limited time, Ponder was 7 of 13 for 132 yards and no picks. Ponder had an extremely high 18.9 yards per completion in the limited time, a 350-400 yard pace for a normal full game played.

 

NFL QB that 2010 Christian Ponder most compares to statistically in college...

The closest NFL QB that had similar data across the board in college with Ponder (circa 2010), including physically, is Chad Henne. There are also some Eli Manning comps in there as well. Both of them kinda make sense. I could see Ponder being "good" like Eli Manning, but not elite...just good. I also could see him struggling with flashes of really good games to get people excited...only to let them down -- like Chad Henne did. Henne is probably the better match as they are more similar in physical size as it translates to the NFL. Ponder stands at just barely over 6'2, that's a concerning attribute for the future NFL QBs success.  

QB	Yr	College	H	W	adj Comp Pct	Adj Yds per Comp	adj Pass per TD	adj Pass Per INT		Yds per game 35 Att	TDs per game 35 Att	INTs per game 35 Att
Ponder, Christian	2010	Florida State	74.1	222	56.3%	12.2	20.1	31.9		218.0	1.7	1.4
Henne, Chad	2007	Michigan	74.9	230	52.8%	11.4	20.2	50.2		210.2	1.7	0.7
Manning, Eli	2003	Ole Miss	77.0	221	56.3%	12.2	20.1	31.9		239.9	1.7	1.1

 

NFL QB that 2009 Christian Ponder most compares to statistically in college...

The potentially exciting news about Ponder, using 2009 data only -- is it's not Chad Henne who Ponder compares to...it's Ben Roethlisberger, with some Philip Rivers mixed in. During the 2009 season Ponder was being discussed as an early leave Junior QB going pro. Due to the late 2009 season injury, that exuberance switched over to a 2010 Heisman hopeful. A slow start and elbow injuries squashed that as well. When you debate a Big Ben comparison to Ponder, it might strike you that as of now -- no one is really talking about Ponder big for the 2011 Draft...just note for a moment in time Ponder had major QB "buzz" in 2009. Just because we have short memories, doesn't mean that the Rivers/Ben comparisons might not be possible.

Roethlisberger and Rivers are both much bigger in physical attributes than Ponder, but I wanted to show how good the Ponder 2009 results were (historically) from his passing metrics standpoint.

QB	Yr	College	H	W	adj Comp Pct	Adj Yds per Comp	adj Pass per TD	adj Pass Per INT		Yds per game 35 Att	TDs per game 35 Att	INTs per game 35 Att
Ponder, Christian	2009	Florida State	74.1	222	70.3%	12.7	18.0	51.1		313.0	1.9	0.7
Roethlisberger, Ben	2003	Miami, Ohio	77.0	241	69.5%	13.7	17.4	50.6		333.0	2.0	0.7
Rivers, Philip	2003	NC State	77.0	221	68.1%	12.0	14.2	58.1		286.1	2.5	0.6

 

2010 based Christian Ponder Overall Score = 0.649

A 0.649 rating our system places Ponder in the lower/middle range with other mostly bust, or never-made-it, QBs.

2009 based Christian Ponder Overall Score = 0.903

A 0.903 places Ponder in the range of the probable very good/elite QBs.

The fact that Christian Ponder was capable of metrics like 2009, has to give you pause to consider him in 2011. The fact that he had a weaker 2010 and has been so injury prone/unlucky would have to give you pause to not select him in 2011. Not every mathematical story we research has a pretty bow to wrap it all up with. Honestly, with Ponder, we just don't know. There is too much conflicting data to say anything definitive.

As an NFL GM, I would have Ponder on my radar screen as a mid/later round pick to have a "cheap" look at who Ponder really is. Is his story just fluke injuries or is he "injury-prone"? Is he more like Roethlisberger or Henne? A definite risk/reward selection, but one that I don't think an NFL team should pay (with a high pick) a lot for. My guess is that he will be a 3rd-4th Round pick. If the NFL medical investigators have nothing but positive reports on his past injuries, maybe he sneaks into the 2nd Round. With so many good QBs this year, I have feeling most NFL teams aren't going to reach for Christian Ponder...and that ultimately may be a mistake. If your team gets Ponder, there is at minimum = "hope". There are many more big name 2011 QBs, who are system would indicate have "no hope", with Ponder there might be something.

*Again, this is all with "neutral" scores for missing NFL Combine data. A blown Wonderlic test and any discussion of "maybe-stardom" for Ponder goes out the window, right into mediocre/bust in our mathematical evaluations.

 

 

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