*An on-going series of putting college QBs in our mathematical analysis. We don’t have all the needed data until the 2011 NFL Combine results, but we can assume some of it (for now) and we have all the game performance/statistics.

See this link for details on the College QB rating system --  Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

Cam Newton, Auburn - NFL Draft 2011

I have to say this study of Cam Newton shocked me a little...

... then took swerve back to where my biased mind began.

My bias going into a study of Cam Newton was that I felt like we were staring at the next Tim Tebow or Vince Young, and that our algorithm was going to spit Newton out and expose him as a bit of a fraud of a passer. The numbers actually said something much different, it brought to light (for me) that Cam Newton had a better than I expected/very good passing metrics in 2010. Newton was accurate (66.1% Comp Pct) with a 4.3-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. The problem with getting excited about that is -- Tim Tebow essentially had the same numbers his final year of college, Vince Young as well.

• Cam Newton (overall) 66.1% Comp Pct and 4.3 to 1 TD to INT ratio

• Tim Tebow (overall) 67.8% Comp Pct and 4.2 to 1 TD to INT ratio

• Vince Young (overall) 65.2% Comp Pct and 2.6 to 1 TD to INT ratio

Those numbers are definitively above-average for a college QB. High completion percentage and 4+ TD to INT ratio is very good. When I look at those TD to INT ratios for just the "key" games, throwing out the weak opponents. It doesn't change, the3 QBs (Newton, Tebow, Young) are all still tied together. The results of just key games/better opponents:

• Cam Newton (key games) 63.9% Comp Pct and 3.0 TD to INT ratio

• Vince Young (key games) 69.0% Comp Pct and 3.0 TD to INT ratio

• Tim Tebow (key games) 67.8% Comp Pct and 2.6 TD to INT ratio

Newton is mostly right on par with Tebow and Young in our system in the passing metrics. The caveat on all of these projections is the Wonderlic testing. Vince Young bombed it. Tim Tebow's was weak. The best actual NFL QB drafted in the past 5 years with a 24 or lower Wonderlic score is probably Vince Young. The best NFL QB drafted in the past 10 years with a score under 24 is probably David Garrard. Not exactly the Mt. Rushmore of QBs.

I have Newton projected in for decent Wonderlic score for now, but won't truly know until the NFL Combine results are in. Should that Wonderlic score fall as low as some people have speculated, Newton will fall out of our good/great rating projection and drop to a more question mark/bust QB with Young and Tebow. If Newton excels in the Wonderlic, he can shed some of the Young/Tebow labeling. As it stands now with the average Wonderlic, Newton is our #2 rated projected QB from college, behind Ricky Stanzi. (Andrew Luck would have been far and away #1 if he had declared according to our computer model).

There are a couple key passing metrics in which Cam Newton rates as not just good, but nearly great. Let's take a look at a few of the metrics that Newton did jump off the page on...

Huge in key games that he did not run big in

It is amazing to look over Cam Newton's 2010 rushing results by game. He had 6 games with 150+ yards rushing, which is amazing for QB. Newton would probably rate as our #1 college RB just based on his rushing stats. However, we don't factor in running ability or stats into our QB projection algorithm as a positive at all...if anything it is a deterrent. Rarely does a mobile/athletic QB become an elite NFL passing QB. You can name a rare exception to the rule, then I can name 30+ more QBs that prove my point for each one you think of.

Not every game did Newton run wild. There were 8 games this past season where Newton didn't rush for 150+, in fact he ran for 75 or less in the rest of them (an odd gap...). Very quietly, Newton finished the season with a 6 game stretch in which in 5 of the 6 games he finished with much, much lower running totals (for him). In that "low-run" stretch, Newton faced Ole Miss, Tennessee-Chattanooga, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina and Oregon. I throw 2 games out of this part of the analysis -- Georgia was the game he went over 150 rushing (151) and who cares about Chattanooga. In the 4 key games down the stretch (Miss, Ala, So Carl, Ore) where he didn't run as wild, check out these Newton stats:

• 11 TD's and just 1 INT

• 64.2% Completion Percentage

• 1 Passing TD per every 9.6 throws, a pace of 3.6 Passing TDs per game based on a 35 throw a game average (Newton threw 26.5 times per game in the 4 games in reality)

• 255 Passing Yards per the 4 games, but looking at yards per completion he had 15.1 yards per completion in those 4 games...based on a 35 Pass Attempt game, Newton would have averaged 338.7 yards a game at that pace

When his running game was (somewhat) cutoff, Newton showed he was beyond one-dimensional against the better competition in the SEC and on the biggest stages -- the SEC Championship and National Championship.

Consistency in Passing totals

Newton played in 14 games in 2010. Some of the passing highlights from those 14 games:

• 11 of those 14 games he had over 60%+ competition percentage in each game

• 11 of 14 games with 2+ Passing TDs

• 2 INTs in a game just 1 time all season

 

Advanced per Pass Attempt and per Pass Completion Metrics (in key games/tougher competition)

Newton ranks as one of the Top-5 best in our Yards per completion metric (key games/competition looked at only). The current Top-5 we have after studying 60+ QBs for Yards per Completion:

1. 17.8 avg yards per every completion = Ryan Leaf, Washington State

2. 15.6 = Michael Vick, Va Tech

3. 14.9 = Ryan Mallett, Arkansas

4. 14.7 = Cam Newton, Auburn

5. 14.7 = Drew Olson, UCLA

The thing about the other 4 QBs above, they had great ability to get the ball downfield...but then fell apart (statistically) in having a very low completion percentage and/or high INTs per Pass Attempt. Newton was different then the other 4, he had no problems in either of those accuracy metrics -- Newton maintained 60%+ Completion percentage with a very low amount of INTs per Pass Attempt.

Not only did Newton show he could get the ball downfield, he also had a proficient ability to throw TD passes (as well as run for them too). Our current Top-5 best college QBs in TD passes per Pass Attempt (in key game/vs. tougher opponents):

1. 10.8 Pass Attempts per Passing TD = Sam Bradford, Oklahoma

2. 10.9 = Jason White, Oklahoma

3. 11.0 = Drew Olson, UCLA

4. 11.2 = Cam Newton, Auburn

5. 11.3 = Alex Smith, Utah

White and Olson had nice numbers above, but both collapsed in accuracy and interception metrics. Newton, Bradford, and Smith excelled in accuracy as well as TD proficiency.

Newton has some great passing metrics, but there is a side of the metrics that calls Newton's high "per" numbers into question.

Low Passing Attempts per game, due to running mentality/ability

It's true that Newton has some great passing metrics in our system and maintains his accuracy with it. One issue with that is an incredibly low amount of pass attempts per game last season. The problem with a low pass attempt average is that low average trend replicates some other great college QBs that have already (or look like they might) bust in the NFL.

My theory is that the Tim Tebow's, Vince Young's and Cam Newton's are so proficient running the ball, that teams gear up to shut that run down so much that is allows the QB to face very loose coverage in the passing game...thus inflating their passing numbers/ability. Loose coverage they won't see in the NFL (only Michael Vick has made that run fear affect to push the passing game work in the NFL, somewhat). When I look at Vince Young's senior season, his passing stats in key games/stronger opponents were actually great and very similar to or better than Newton's. Just on pass attempts per game (in key games/stronger opponents), look at the comps of other "mobile" college QBs:

• 20.2 Pass Attempts per game (in key games) = Cam Newton, Auburn

• 23.0 = Tim Tebow, Florida

• 24.8 = Terrell Pryor, Ohio State

• 26.6 = Vince Young, Texas

• 28.4 = Jake Locker, Washington

• 30.0 = Alex Smith, Utah (26.4 per in all games)

The future NFL elite passers threw it quite a bit more in their key college final season games...

• 44.4 Pass Attempts per game (in key games) = Peyton Manning, Tennessee

• 43.8 = Drew Brees, Purdue

• 39.7 = Sam Bradford, Oklahoma

• 37.3 = Philip Rivers, NC State

• 36.3 = Ben Roethlisberger, Miami, Ohio

• 34.3 = Tom Brady, Michigan

• 29.8 = Aaron Rodgers, Cal

It's not that high pass attempts equals success, if so Graham Harrell or David Klinger would be the best QBs ever. It's just that "mobile" QB's seem to throw less (makes sense, they run a lot more), but that focus on their running ability may open college defenses up so much that it allows these "mobile" QBs to inflate their passing stats on a per pass basis. Rarely, very rarely...almost never has the highly mobile QB ever become an elite NFL passing QB. Cam Newton may be the next "mobile" QB to fall into that trap.

 

The QB Cam Newton most compares to statistically...

Where all the great passing metrics push Newton higher up the list for us statistically, the Newton fall back down began when we started looking at the correlation between the reliance on the run and the extraordinarily low amount of pass attempts per game. When we started filtering the individual passing metrics and current physical measurements/metrics of Cam Newton to see what similar QBs popped up -- there it was...Vince Young and Alex Smith. Very mobile QB's, who have (so far) virtually busted in the NFL. My inclination all along was a Vince Young vibe with Newton, and the statistical correlation is there.

Pro-Cam Newton folks are quick to defend Newton by defensively saying "'he's not like Vince Young"...one of the problems is his final season college passing numbers are just like Vince Young's.

What anti-Vince Young (which I am one) folks forget is, Young had incredible passing metrics in his senior season. A 65.2% overall completion percentage, for us a 69.0% completion percentage in key games and then a 67.7% for us in completion percentage when key games are weighted for the strength of opponent. All better than Cam Newton's across the board.  I don't know or care about throwing "release points" and great "over-hand throwing motions" people rave about with Newton, etc. Vince Young looks odd throwing the ball and was as good/better than Newton in passing metrics in college. What we see with our eyes can be very deceiving -- it is all about the output. Like those who rejected Philip Rivers because "he throws funny". Who cares about looks, what were the results?

If you made it as far as big time NCAA football and you have 60%+ Completion Percentages in a power conference, with many more TDs to INTs thrown, let's assume you can throw a ball well enough for the NFL. Tavaris Jackson has a missile for an arm is maybe the worst pre-draft "well thought of" QB I have ever seen. The whole "Cam Newton has better release and over-hand throwing motion than Vince Young", give me a break. I'm sure Newton looks better throwing than Philip Rivers too, but I have a funny feeling Rivers will have a much better NFL career.

The comparisons are right with Vince Young (and somewhat to Alex Smith), like it or not....

• "Adj" means just key games/better competition -- weighted for strength of opponent

• "per 35 att" numbers are the key games, weighted for strength of opponent and then translated into an average as if every QB had an equal 35 Pass Attempts per game all the time, and thus what would each QB produce if they had 35 passes per game based on the key games their final college season.

QB	Yr	College	H	W	adj Comp Pct	Adj Yds per Comp	adj Pass per TD	adj Pass Per INT		Yds per game 35 Att	TDs per game 35 Att	INTs per game 35 Att
Newton, Cam	2010	Auburn	77.5	248	63.7%	14.1	11.6	49.2		313.6	3.0	0.7
Young, Vince	2005	Texas	77.0	233	67.7%	13.1	15.5	38.1		310.6	2.3	0.9
Smith, Alex	2004	Utah	76.0	217	66.9%	13.1	11.5	81.4		307.1	3.0	0.4
Tebow, Tim	2009	Florida	74.8	236	66.9%	12.9	20.1	40.5		301.2	1.7	0.9

 

Cam Newton Overall Score = 0.889 (see historical rating chart via link below)

Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

Currently Newton is above our "magic" 0.850 score, projecting to a good/great NFL QB potentially. Again, that is with a average Wonderlic score plugged in. If Newton produces a bad Wonderlic score, it will throw him down to just another exciting college QB -- like it did to Vince Young in our system and (to a lesser degree) Tim Tebow. An above average score is going to keep Newton with the high quality group.

Newton has been a lightning rod of debate on whether he can even be an NFL QB, and for many now the debate is whether he is the best QB in the 2011 NFL Draft class or not. I'm more anti-Newton at this point waiting on that Wonderlic score and final physical measurements. There are just too many similarities to Vince Young's numbers, size, running mentality, etc for me to bite on this...especially as a Top-5 pick and spending millions guaranteed. Especially when much cheaper, potential later round options like Andy Dalton, Pat Devlin and our current #1 rated QB Ricky Stanzi. I respect Newton, but I am highly suspect...waiting for that Wonderlic score.

 

 

 

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