*An on-going series of putting college QBs in our mathematical analysis. We don’t have all the needed data until the 2011 NFL Combine results, but we can assume some of it and we have all the game performance/statistics.

See this link for details on the College QB rating system --  Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

Andy Dalton is a "sleeper" among a few people that I consider "wise" on the NFL Draft process. This made me very intrigued to do the analysis on Dalton to see how he popped up on our mathematical formula. The numbers are coming up that Dalton is a potentially very good NFL QB, with some signs of a chance to be an elite NFL QB.

One mild negative on Dalton is that he stands exactly 6'2 according to reports at the Senior Bowl and the NFL Combine. A height of 6'3+ has a better statistical track record, but 6'2 and above is a statistically OK (not great) cut for the future NFL QB's (Aaron Rodgers is 6'2 as well) and this is not a total red-flag...but it's close. Below 6'2 and the numbers really turn against a college QB's future success in the NFL (6'0 Drew Brees being the major exception to the rule).

The 3 best (by performance) QB's at the Pro-level, that are under 6'3 and have been drafted in the past 5 years (according to me):

1. Mark Sanchez, NY Jets

2. Matt Stafford, Detroit

3. Chad Henne, Miami

After those 3 QBs, there are 19 other QBs we have analyzed (and we tried to analyze relevant QB's/higher picked QB's first, 70+ researched so far) that were under 6'3 -- and that list is mostly a collection of complete washouts or non-performers. It also includes, "too soon to tell" Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy...both of whom our mathematical formula projects will "bust" with strong probability, definitely not future elite NFL QBs. Under 6'3 is not a "death-sentence", there are just stronger odds against becoming a future NFL elite based on the recent history/trending.

My biggest negative on Dalton could be that the WAC/Mountain West QBs historically have been the thorn in my side on this mathematical formula for rating College QBs for NFL potential. Alex Smith (Utah) was truly amazing in his final season (statistically) and John Beck (BYU) was pretty good as well. They both rated well in our projections system, but both have looked terrible (to me) in the NFL. Certainly, neither Smith nor Beck have excited anyone in the NFL with their NFL career performances so far. Along comes another Mountain West QB draft prospect Andy Dalton, who is also projecting with very similar/nice numbers as well. Perhaps playing in the WAC/Mtn West is worthy of a special red-flag deduction/ratings penalty in our system.

With or without a red-flag for conference played in, Dalton's passing metrics are much more impressive than current hot 2011 QB prospect Blaine Gabbert. Dalton has won more games than Gabbert, Dalton has been more accurate overall than Gabbert, and he has a much higher/elite level Pass Attempts per TD metric over Gabbert in our rating system (looking at either just their key games or all games).

Dalton has thrown for 50 TDs over the past 2 seasons as a starter and Gabbert has thrown 40. You might comment, "that's not much of a difference!" Consider that Gabbert comes from a shotgun/spread, heavy throw system (920 Pass Attempts last 2 seasons) and Dalton from a little more balanced system (639 Pass Attempts in the past 2 seasons). Look at overall (all games) Pass Attempts per TD in their last 2 seasons and you will see that just looking at raw totals between the two are misleading:

• 12.8 Pass Att per Pass TD = Dalton (2009 + 2010)

• 23.0 = Gabbert (2009 + 2010)

• 18.5 = Dalton (2008 + 2009 -- matching him up with Gabbert as a Sophomore and Junior year comparison)

One might think that is not a lot, but in our historical look at that -- Gabbert's 23.0 Pass Attempts per TD is way off where the future elites are. Looking at their last 2 seasons of Pass Attempts per Passing TD metric results (above) -- and expanding it to a hypothetical 12 game season with exactly 35 Pass Attempts each game, the difference would be 33 Passing TDs for Dalton and just 18 for Gabbert (in the hypothetical season).

In Dalton's 3 "toughest" games in 2010 -- at Utah, vs. SD State, and a Bowl game matchup with then #3-4 rated Wisconsin. In those 3 games alone, Dalton had:

• 8 TDs to 1 INT (Gabbert 3 TDs and 3 INTs in his 3 toughest 2010 games)

• A TD pass for every 9.4 passes thrown, which is way above elite level (Gabbert a TD pass for every 47 passes in his 3 toughest matchups, which is awful beyond words looking at the history of this metric in our system)

• 14.3 passing yards per completion, another elite number (Gabbert just 10.6 per in his 3 toughest)

• An amazing 76.0% completion percentage (Gabbert 63.1% in his 3 toughest)

Looking at all of our historical data on college QBs so far with their stats weighted for strength of schedule, Dalton is above average rated among all QBs we have looked at so far in completion percentage, yards per completion, and Pass Attempts per TD ratio. Dalton has no red-flags in our system with Passing metrics. Dalton's numbers are sitting right there with the future elite QB's that we have studied; based on his metrics as a passer. However, the physical "measureables" hurt Dalton at 6'2 height and 31.5 inch arm length -- he's right on the physical cusp of where QBs statistically/historically struggle translating to the NFL.

Dalton's Passing Metric rankings (among 13 of the notable 2011 QBs we have looked at):

• 2nd Best = Pass Attempts per TD pass, in key/tougher opponent games (Newton #1)

• 4th Best = Completion Percentage, in key/tougher opponent games

• 4th Best = Passing yards per completion

• 5th Best = TD/INT ratio in key/tougher opponent games

 

Andy Dalton Overall Score = 0.889 
*See original work and scoring tables from the following link -- Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

*This is assuming that Dalton scores well on the Wonderlic, he could tumble to a more mediocre rating if not.

I filtered the list of QBs that we have put through this mathematical system so far to try to match up Andy Dalton to current NFL QB's with similar college stats in key games. I looked at a similar level of Completion Percentage, Yards per Completion, Pass Attempts per TD and per INT...plus only looked at 6'3 and shorter QBs. By doing this my original list was filtered down to one "good QB" comparison -- Mark Sanchez; and one that may not be so good -- John Beck.

A clip/glimpse at just a few of our system's comparison data on these 3 QBs:

• "Adj" means just key games/better competition -- weighted for strength of opponent (our own proprietary work, weighted for strength of opponent)

• "per 35 att" numbers are the key games, weighted for strength of opponent and then translated into an average as if every QB had an equal 35 Pass Attempts per game all the time, and thus what would each QB produce (in college) if they had 35 passes per game based on the key games their final college season. In an attempt to somewhat equalize the college performance and show you what our systems sees.

QB	Yr	College	H	W	adj Comp Pct	Adj Yds per Comp	adj Pass per TD	adj Pass Per INT		Yds per game 35 Att	TDs per game 35 Att	INTs per game 35 Att
Dalton, Andy	2010	TCU	74.0	215	65.3%	13.6	13.4	42.9		311.1	2.6	0.8
Beck, John	2006	BYU	74.1	215	63.8%	12.9	16.1	72.6		287.3	2.2	0.5
Sanchez, Mark	2008	USC	74.3	227	64.7%	11.3	11.4	38.3		256.7	3.1	0.9

 

*The Wonderlic score is assumed "good" at this point, but a bad Wonderlic score and Dalton will drop out of our potentially good/great ratings and move toward mediocre/good ratings with possible "bust" potential.

Dalton is going to be one to keep an eye on for moving up the NFL Draft boards. I would not be shocked to see Dalton slide into the early 2nd round of the NFL Draft. Dalton is intriguing, as he may be one of the most efficient passers of all the 2011 QBs. I would be more excited on Dalton if he was an inch or two taller. Again, not saying he is doomed at 6'2, but it is not historically a great place to be for an NFL QB. The "size thing" will likely hold him out of becoming a potential 1st Round pick. That's where I think a Ricky Stanzi has the "sleeper QB" edge on Dalton -- both long time starters, very good numbers, lots of wins, character seems to be fine...but Stanzi is 2.1 inches taller at 6'4+. All other things being equal, if an NFL GM is faced with the choice of Stanzi or Dalton only, I think you would have to lean toward choosing Stanzi due to the physical consideration. An NFL team landing Dalton in the 2nd or 3rd Round may have an absolute steal on their hands.

 

 

Select a position from the tabs below to see stats and scouting information for that respective position.

• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
•