Carolina Panthers Special ~ Statistical Analysis of Clausen & Pike

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News: Clausen & Pike 2010-11 - Fantasy Football Draft 2011

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Carolina Panthers Special 2011 - QB

By R.C. Fischer

Can Jimmy Clausen be an Elite NFL QB?...or can Tony Pike?...or Should the Panthers Draft Another QB in 2011?...a debate of Wonderlic philosophy and NFL QBs

How many times can an article have "Wonderlic" in it? You are about to find out...

*An on-going series of putting college QBs in our mathematical analysis. See this link for details on our College QB rating system -- Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

 

This past week, our work on the 2011 College QBs Draft class was debated on the Carolina Panthers fan website -- "Cat Scratch Reader". Looking at all the fan comments sent in, I was struck by the struggle of many Panthers fans on their current QB dilemma. There was/is heavy debate on -- "...is Clausen the future?" or "...is Pike really any good" or "should the Panthers find a QB in the 2011 Draft"?  I thought there would be more folks giving up on both Tony Pike and Jimmy Clausen, especially on Tony Pike. However, I do see there is still some amount of fan support and/or hope shown for one or the other Panthers current QBs. 

QB is virtually everything in the NFL. An elite QB can change the destiny of a franchise for years to come; the lack of an elite QB can doom a franchise into a seemingly never-ending purgatory of perpetual "rebuilding plans" and constant QB debates. The Green Packers fans, don't really care about this year's incoming QB class. Nor do the Atlanta Falcons fans care, nor the San Diego Chargers, etc. In Buffalo, Minnesota, Arizona, and Carolina (to name a few), the possible trade-worthy QBs (Kolb, Flynn, etc) and especially the incoming 2011 College QB class is almost a 24/7 non-stop debate. The value of having "your" QB in place and not having to worry about it is "nirvana".

Since there was such considerable debate on the CSR site about whether or not the Panthers should use the #1 pick on a QB or continue with Clausen and/or Pike; I thought I would add to the debate by expanding our system analysis on the two Panthers QBs. *Thanks to the fans of the "Cat Scratch Reader" and to Rick Bates for featuring and debating on our college QB hypothesis work. Hope you guys enjoy debating this one!

From a pure passing metrics perspective, both Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike have no major red-flags in our system. When we look at their performance against just key games/winning record opponents, both QBs look fine -- all metrics pretty well within tolerance and having the characteristics of other future good NFL QBs. When we send that data through a second test, one that weighs the passing metrics a little differently for the strength of opponent in their key games -- both still come out OK. Clausen fading a little bit on his Passing TD prowess, scoring just outside the range of historically future great QB's did. Tony Pike slides negligibly when his competition increased. At this point of our analysis (just passing performance), both QBs would appear to be future "good" NFL QBs and a little outside our system's scoring baseline for the future elite NFL QBs (Brady, Manning, Rivers etc)...but still good.

The 1st drop for Jimmy Clausen in our system comes with his Wonderlic score, he had a 23. If you passionately think a focus on Wonderlic is crazy and/or you completely dismiss the Wonderlic discussion as something to never be considered, then I probably can't convince you otherwise...but I'll try.

I think the Wonderlic is definitely a major piece of the puzzle when analyzing today's modern QB. More recently the Wonderlic is taken (and reported upon) much more seriously than it was 10-20+ years ago. The reason why I believe in this sudden rise of Wonderlic importance is two-fold:

  1. NFL Offenses, over the past 5-10 years, have changed radically with the advanced "West Coast" passing systems and all it's variations such as "the Spread". This has led to a more rapid fire, quick decision type of NFL passing game. The need for an accurate, quick decision QB is paramount. Especially given the complexities of defenses in that time frame as well. Also, consider the amount of high paid, specialists that coordinate both sides of the ball versus years ago. The game today lends itself to the quick/good decision making QB (thanks in large part to Bill Walsh). Arm strength/"Big Arm" is your "Grandfather's'" way of NFL QB scouting. Bill Walsh, and so many others, have proven time and time again that accuracy and decision making in an advanced passing system is much more valuable than a "Big Arm". The Wonderlic test is just one facet of measuring quick thinking, logic, mental accuracy, and pattern recognition.

  2. The NFL Draft process and NFL Combine have taken on a life of their own. Whereas (and this is just speculation) 10-20+ years ago, if you had stuck a Wonderlic test in front of Dan Marino or Jim Kelly (both very low Wonderlic scorers), these elite college QBs might have laughed it off and not taken it seriously. Why would they care about this silly test? TODAY -- every move that a prospective NFL QB makes is covered and over-analyzed by every media outlet. QB prospects will pay huge sums of money to go to a QB Pre-Draft Prep Boot Camp and/or work one-on-one with a specialist...including practicing, over and over, sample Wonderlic tests. I would bet College QBs from the 1980's and many in the 1990's had never even seen or heard of a Wonderlic test in their life until they went to the NFL Combine. Today's highly rated QB has probably been taking practice Wonderlic tests ad nauseam as part of their final year of preparation for the NFL.

In this day and age, as a prospective NFL QB, if you score "low" on the Wonderlic with all the prep involved -- (I theorize) you really aren't a "fast thinker". That doesn't mean you are "dumb", it just means not a "fast thinker". If you have ever taken a Wonderlic test -- it's not that it is a "hard" test per say. If you had an hour to take the test and had plenty of time to double-check your work -- everyone would score much higher, but the Wonderlic is a timed test and nearly impossible for test-takers to even look at every question, much less get them all correct. There are a lot of shapes, number and word patterns to decipher. In order to quickly find the differences or to notice a pattern, etc -- you have to have a sharp/quick/clear mind to do well. Compound the situation with the pressure of possibly millions of dollars now riding on that score. Again, with the Wonderlic test...no real time to go back and check your answers. A simple mental mistake or "going too fast" hurts you on the Wonderlic test...and mental mistakes and rushing decisions that cause forced errors hurts performance as a QB as well.

We could debate the relevance, the bias, etc of the Wonderlic test itself...and it wouldn't matter. I am a statistician. I am a "pattern-ist". Ultimately, I am a "gambler" at heart. If I find that the results of anything have a 70-80%+ characteristic of predicting a certain future outcome, then I am interested in vetting it out to learn more about it and see how it might correlate.

Our mathematical system of analyzing QBs recognized a pattern in future NFL QB performance with certain levels of Wonderlic scoring. However, it is just a "one-way street" to factor in. A "high/good" Wonderlic score does not mean a whole lot per say, it just avoids a "red-flag" (a red-flag for us, as well as every NFL GM). The higher the Wonderlic score, not really "the better the QB". Yet, a "low" Wonderlic score almost spells certain doom for your NFL QB future. That's not a cute theory right now, it is a statistical fact. Not an absolute 100% fact, but a very highly probable 80-90%+ fact. Let me give a few examples.

Playing in the Super Bowl and Wonderlic Scores....

Most people will not give the stamp of "approval" or assign greatness to a NFL QB unless he has won a Super Bowl. Most of us would admit that it takes an elite QB to win a Super Bowl these days. If for a second you subscribe to the theory that elite QBs win Super Bowls, then as a fan of the Carolina Panthers (or any other team) you better hope you have an elite QB. In our mathematical system, you have a very low probability of being be a future elite QB if you have not hit a 25 or higher on the Wonderlic having taken the test in the past 10 years (maybe longer). A score of 24 or less carries a very (recent decade) historically low chance of becoming a future NFL elite QB. I am not saying NO chance (as nothing much is ever absolute), just a very low chance.

Look at the following sets of information and think in terms of it as a gambler would. If you had to bet on or set an over/under line of results based just on Wonderlic, where would you put your money or set the bar at?

The past decade of Super Bowl matchups and their Wonderlic scores:

  • 2010-11 = Rodgers (35), Roethlisberger (25)

  • 2009-10 = Brees (28), P.Manning (28)

  • 2008-09 = Roethlisberger (25), Warner (?)

  • 2007-08 = E.Manning (39), Brady (33)

  • 2006-07 = P.Manning (28), Grossman (29)

  • 2005-06 = Roethlisberger (25), Hasselbeck (29)

  • 2004-05 = Brady (33), McNabb (14)

  • 2003-04 = Brady (33), Delhomme (?)

  • 2002-03 = Brad Johnson (?), Gannon (27)

  • 2001-02 = Brady (33), Warner (?)

13 QBs have participated in the past 10 Super Bowls, 1 with a Wonderlic score of 24 or lower. Three QBs we don't know the reliable score of.

Of the last 10 winning Super Bowl teams, 9 were QB'd by a player with a Wonderlic score 25+...the other unaccounted for QB from a winning team has an unknown score QB (Brad Johnson, TB). Throw out the unknown Wonderlic scoring QBs and just look at what we simply know, and you could say the following statistically:

  • 100% of the known Super Bowl winning QBs had a Wonderlic score of 25+ in the last decade

  • 90% of all Super Bowl participating (won or lost) QBs had a Wonderlic score of 25+

If I could have bet an over/under on whether the Super Bowl winning (or losing) team would be quarterbacked by a player with a 25 Wonderlic score or higher for the past decade, I would be fairly rich right now. Think about the upcoming 2011-12 NFL favorites (for what we would assume now). I bet I would win the wager of whether a 25+ Wonderlic QB would be on both sides of the Super Bowl matchup again in 2011-12 (hopefully there is a Super Bowl!).

Trent Dilfer (22 Wonderlic score) breaks the trend in 2000, but we would all agree the Ravens team bucked the trend in a lot of ways. Trent Dilfer did win a Super Bowl, but obviously not considered an elite NFL QB. Dilfer and the Ravens that year, were somewhat of a Super Bowl winning aberration. Also, that was outside of the last decade (by 1 year). If you say "no aberration allowed for Dilfer", OK then 9 of the last 10 known Wonderlic QBs that won a Super Bowl were 25+ scorers...a 90% probability. I like 100% better, but I will take 90% as a gambler.

If we go back to the last 15 Super Bowls (and we don't know Kurt Warner or Brad Johnson scores), we know what 13 of the 15 QBs scored on the Wonderlic test. Of those 13 Super Bowl winning teams in the past 15 years we have 11 of 13 (Favre and Dilfer break trend) of the winning team's QB with a 25+ Wonderlic score. An 85% probability of a Super Bowl winning QB having a 25+ Wonderlic score over the past 15 Super Bowls, I still like those odds.

Divisional Winners, Playoff Winners in the last 2 Seasons

Maybe just looking at Super Bowl participants evokes a "well, the elite teams have an elite surrounding cast" response. OK, let's quickly look at the past 2 seasons on "general" NFL success...and QB's with a 25+ Wonderlic.

  • 2010 = 92% of the 13 teams with a winning record in the NFL were led by a QB with a 25+ Wonderlic score QB (Vick exception, Cassel unknown, so 11 of 12 "known" teams hit it)

  • 2010 = 100% of the NFL teams that won at least one playoff game were led by a QB with a 25+ Wonderlic score QB. No QB with a Wonderlic score under 25 won a playoff game.

  • 2009 = 86% of the 15 NFL teams with a winning record were led by a QB with a 25+ Wonderlic score (McNabb, Favre exceptions...Warner unknown), so 12 of 14 teams hit it)

  • 2009 = 83% of NFL teams who won a playoff game were led by a QB with a 25+ Wonderlic score (Favre breaks rule).

  • 2009+2010 = 88% of NFL teams with a winning record in the past 2 seasons had a 25+ Wonderlic QB

  • 2009+2010 = 92% of teams that won at least one playoff game were led by a 25+ Wonderlic QB

QBs drafted in the last decade:

  • 2009+2010 = 96% of the NFL teams have had a winning record in the past 2 seasons were led by a QB with a 25+ Wonderlic score on a test taken in the past 10 years (2010 Vick the only exception)

  • 2009+2010 = 0% of the NFL teams have won at least one playoff game in the past 2 seasons IF they had a QB drafted/took the Wonderlic test in the last 10 years and that QB scored a 24 or less on the test.

All this 80%+, 90%+ trending for QBs with a 25+ Wonderlic score cannot make anyone feel great about Jimmy Clausen (or any QB) with a Wonderlic score of 23. A Wonderlic doubter (has a right to) will say, "but Dan Marino (no Super Bowl wins)...but Brett Favre (did win)...but Donovan McNabb (no Super Bowl wins)". Awesome logic! You stick up for the side of the "coin flip" that hits your way 5-20% of the time, and I will take the 80-95% option...let's bet on that 80/20 or 90/10 coin flip scenario and we'll see who is broke first. Sometimes you will win a flip, but eventually you will be busted...quickly. I'm not saying it can't happen, I am saying it's not statistically likely to happen based on the last decade. Not likely at all.

The only QBs that are bucking the 25+ Wonderlic trend this decade...all took the test 10+ years ago. All the "but what about____!" QBs who scored very low are QBs who have taken the test 15-25+ years ago. The Wonderlic pattern/rule breakers are possibly from the era I referred to earlier, the "who cares" era where no one cared that much about these type of "silly" details. Now we are glued to our TV sets watching QBs throw footballs at giant mechanical, on the move, over-sized archery targets. I can't back up my theory on "the who cares" Wonderlic/Combine QB mentality back 15-25+ years ago, it's just my own theory.

 

The 24 and Under, Wonderlic Club

Perhaps you look at the last 2 lists of team/QB results data above and say, "why a score of 24 and under...and not 26 or 25...or lower to 23 or 22 or 21"?

When we're putting a mathematical system together, it's like running a casino. I'm not expecting, or foolish enough to think, that I will win every time. I just want the odds in my favor. Way in my favor if possible. The more the odds push in my favor, the better the bottom line for me over time. We had to draw a line somewhere, and actually the computer had to design one, and actually real life results drew one. Let's now look at the point in which all the Wonderlic data  turned against future success for a QB in the NFL.

"Why not 25-26?" -- In the grouping of 25-26 Wonderlic scoring are 13 QBs of the overall group we have rated. It includes Roethlisberger (25), Chad Pennington (25), Carson Palmer  (26), Jay Cutler (26), Kyle Orton (26). There are plenty of recent QB flops in this range along with the recent elite and near elites. Looking at the group, it would be silly to say 25 or 26 is a hard "breaking point" of where QB success tails off. Looking at a Wonderlic score of 24 or less, and now the statistical tide turns...

The 24 and under QB list (of the ones we have put through our test):

  • 24 Wonderlic = JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, Kevin O'Connell, Brody Croyle, Colt Brennan, John Skelton

  • 23 Wonderlic = Jimmy Clausen, Jason Campbell, Graham Harrell

  • 22 Wonderlic = Tim Couch, Tim Tebow, Chad Henne, Jevan Snead, Erik Ainge

  • 21 Wonderlic = none

  • 20 = Michael Vick

  • 19 or lower = Vince Young, Donovan McNabb, John David Booty, David Greene, Troy Smith, David Garrard, Derek Anderson, Tavaris Jackson

*These are only from a sample of QBs we have put through our analysis (about 70 in total so far). Not all data is available on all QBs, especially the farther we go back in history (pre-2000). I have tried to look at the most relevant so far, and we are adding more of them as we can.

If you look at the 24 and under Wonderlic list, you have to say that the data is breaking in another direction with a score of 24 (and lower). Does just one point really make a difference? It seems to make a huge difference between a score 24 versus a score of 25 on a Wonderlic. Jason Campbell is your prized NFL pupil of the 24 and under club in the past 6 years. Best 24 or lower Wonderlic score NFL QB taking the test in the past 3 years is Chad Henne. I guess to sum it up, "guilt by association" with Wonderlic scoring under 24.

Michael Vick is (maybe) the role model of the entire group 24 and under, going back 10 years. If Michael Vick is your role model for QB success, then good luck and hope you are OK with waiting 9-10 years for one good passing season to arrive...also I hope your low scoring Wonderlic QB is the most freakish runner to ever play the position. Michael Vick 2001-2009, was mostly (or has been) a bust as an NFL passer. He has had some nice highlight reel runs though, if you're into that type of stuff over actual team wins and sustainability. How many playoffs games did he win this year, this year being his best year?

Jimmy Clausen at a 23 Wonderlic has the historical odds stacked against him. Yes, I know Dan Marino (0 Super Bowls won) had a 15 Wonderlic score...for the 100 millionth time I know it. I once hit a half-court shot in a basketball game in school, but the coach didn't encourage me to keep taking half-court shots all game after that. Coach wanted me to take high probability shots under normal circumstances. Clausen's 23 on the Wonderlic puts him in the "half-court shot" category. As an NFL GM, or in my other favorite hobby -- analyzing the stock market...I don't want to chase "half-court shots". I especially don't want to pay a lot for it if I am going to take one. To me, a second round pick on Clausen was a bad play of the poker hand given all the historical data.

*Tony Pike has no reliable Wonderlic score on record, so we have it in as a neutral/OK score (25). If Pike is really 24 or lower, he would be right above Clausen in our overall ratings...which would place both of them in the mediocre at best group, with "bust" tendencies.

One last small red-flag on Clausen

Clausen is also slightly dinged in our system with having small hand measurement. Hand measurements are controversial and unknown on many QB the further you go back in time. Again, it is not an absolute -- but small handed (9.0' or lower) QBs have not been as successful historically speaking. Tony Pike has a larger than average hand measurement. Big hands don't equal success, but small ones can be trouble. I know you can find a QB who bucks the trend, I know -- but there are many, many more QB failures or just mediocre for every 1 exception.  Again, do you want to take the 20% odds, I'll take the 80%. The hand-size thing is just a slight system ding because of the probabilities/history of the past.

As well, standing just under 6'3 is not a great attribute either. Clausen is 6'2.6" and Tony Pike is a more "model" QB at 6'5.8". Below 6'2 is the real data cutoff line (Drew Brees a major exception to the rule) where the trend swings hard against future QB success (which makes Greg McElroy at 6'1.8" a potential problem). All things being equal, you would rather have a 6'5 QB with large hands to the hold/protect the ball, than a 6'2 and half QB with "tiny" hands. Not an absolute, but a definite trend in your favor with a bigger QB -- all else being equal.

The NFL QB Jimmy Clausen most compares to statistically coming out in the 2010 draft...

Let me get "pro-Clausen" fans excited for a minute, then pull the football out a la Lucy/Charlie Brown....

When I take the QBs we have in our system and start filtering them down to likely matches with Jimmy Clausen, as I go through all the various Passing Performance Metrics (there are 10+ categories with various weights) -- still left standing among 8 potential matches are names like Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer, along with a collection of mediocre/low/no performers. As I mentioned earlier, our Passing Metrics show pretty well for Clausen and Pike. Then, I filter to the QBs who are closer to Clausen's physical size and the list drops to 3 other likely matches (noted below). The closest matches are a cluster of good Completion Percentage QBs with very high ratings (almost off the charts) for Pass Attempts per INT, who are under 6'3.

Sadly, (here comes Lucy pulling the football away...) for Clausen fans the most likely match is John David Booty. Similar smaller size for both, "safe" passers with their accuracy...and just to pile on -- both under 24 on the Wonderlic. Graham Harrell scored under 24 as well.

  • "Adj" means just key games/better competition -- weighted for strength of opponent (proprietary calculations)

  • "per 35 att" numbers are the key games, weighted for strength of opponent and then translated into an average as if every QB had an equal 35 Pass Attempts per game all the time, and thus what would each QB produce if they had 35 passes per game based on the key games their final college season.

QB Yr College H W adj Comp Pct Adj Yds per Comp adj Pass per TD adj Pass Per INT   Yds per game 35 Att TDs per game 35 Att INTs per game 35 Att
Clausen, Jimmy 2009 Notre Dame 74.6 222 63.5% 11.0 19.7 126.3   244.7 1.8 0.3
Harrell, Graham 2008 Texas Tech 73.1 223 64.5% 12.5 15.9 83.4   282.4 2.2 0.4
Booty, John David 2007 USC 74.4 218 62.5% 10.8 14.1 101.7   236.6 2.5 0.3
Beck, John 2006 BYU 74.1 215 63.8% 12.9 16.1 72.6   287.3 2.2 0.5

Jimmy Clausen Overall Score = 0.492  *see historical rating chart on link to original study =  QB = College QB Vers 1.0_2-17-2011.htm

 

The NFL QB Tony Pike most compares to statistically...

Tony Pike, like Clausen, has had decent/good Passing Metrics in our system. No red-flag numbers, but gets close to trouble on a couple. When filtering Pike for a match in our system, there are a lot of similarities with the Clausen matches until we hit the physical size "switch" in the computer and then it swings for Pike toward Carson Palmer and David Carr.

David Carr is the more likely performance metrics and physical match coming out of college in our system. Both had under 60% Completion Percentage metrics against tougher opponents and weighted in our system. Both also played in a weaker non-power conference (vs. Palmer in the Pac-10, not that the Pac-10 was great then, but athletically better than the other two we would subjectively judge it). The coin flip on which way it would fully judge a match for me on Pike in our system is the Wonderlic (sick of that word yet?). Palmer scored a "safe" 26. Future NFL bust David Carr scored a magical bust-level of 24. Again, we don't have a reliable score on Tony Pike -- so we have a safe 25 Wonderlic score rated in there, but that's a huge assumption....an organizational game-changing assumption.

QB Yr College H W adj Comp Pct Adj Yds per Comp adj Pass per TD adj Pass Per INT   Yds per game 35 Att TDs per game 35 Att INTs per game 35 Att
Pike, Tony 2009 Cincinnati 77.8 223 58.9% 10.6 14.4 41.0   218.0 2.4 0.9
Palmer, Carson 2002 USC 77.0 232 60.3% 12.6 18.5 58.0   265.2 1.9 0.6
Carr, David 2001 Fresno State 75.3 223 57.9% 12.2 17.3 99.1   246.9 2.0 0.4

Tony Pike Overall Score = 0.879 with a 25 Wonderlic (possible good/great pattern)

Tony Pike Overall Score = 0.731 with a 23 Wonderlic (possible mediocre, bust potential pattern)

If you believed our system 100% and/or if I was a betting man, if faced with this data and the choice of Jimmy Clausen or Tony Pike, knowing I had a key missing piece of data on Pike -- I would never select Jimmy Clausen in the first 4-5 Rounds of the Draft (and probably never would select him at all), just because there are a few key data points/trends for Clausen to have buck the historical odds on to become successful. Can Clausen break through and really make it in the NFL?...sure, anything is possible. It's just the statistical odds, historically, are so against it happening...or happening for more than a flash.

However, with Pike you do have the unknown due to the Wonderlic. Pike doesn't have the verified "Scarlet W" like Clausen does, so we are left to debate -- is Pike closer to Carson Palmer or David Carr? As rare as good/great QBs come along, if I saw one with a lot of the good/great statistical tendencies and a pure guess at the Wonderlic -- and I could get that QB with a 6th Round Pick would I grab a Tony Pike and take a cheaper look at which QB he really projects to be. A gamble absolutely worth a 6th Round pick.

If Pike really is a 25+ Wonderlic QB, the data points toward a possible star in the Panthers midst. If I were the Panthers GM today -- would I take Ricky Stanzi in the 2nd or 3rd Round while I watched Pike develop (or not)? Yes I would. Nothing wrong with an organization having too many good QBs if it all works out that way. The more important issue is to just get 1 great QB (unless you have the 2000 Baltimore Ravens Defense). It may take 2-3 worthy QBs on the roster to find just one. Some organizations haven't had an elite QB for a decade or more, so why not take more chances at it as long as they are not all expensive/salary cap-sucking QBs? Tony Pike is not certain to be great (but he is "cheap"). Ricky Stanzi seems more likely that he could be a potential star...definitely worth a 2nd-3rd Round pick to find out  (if you were to trust our system wholeheartedly!). *See the original Stanzi research report here -- NFL Draft Picks 2011 - Ricky Stanzi the Best QB in the 2011 NFL Draft? - Fantasy Football 2011

Now if Andrew Luck (highest scoring QB we have scored all-time in our system based on his 2010) was available....sorry to open that wound.

 

Fantasy Football Writer R C FischerBy R.C. Fischer
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