*"Big WR" = 6'2 or taller at any weight, or 6'0 and taller + 205 pounds and greater (my definition, details will be revealed through the article)

The single biggest debate of the 2011 NFL Draft has been -- whether to take Julio Jones or A.J. Green as the #1 WR overall, and whether they are both worthy of a Top-15 overall draft selection. If you are of that same opinion, you may enjoy our recent work (link below) on the absolute near statistical insanity of taking a WR with a Top-15 overall draft pick. The short version of the research is...Top-15 drafted WRs over the last decade have only been elite in the NFL 16% of the time. 84% of the time a Top-15 selected WR did not turn out to be an elite NFL WR, in fact not only not elite...but almost unrecognizable looking back at history (one exception on the "non-elite" list is Braylon Edwards who is somewhere between "OK" and flashes of great...career-wise). The success rate of both of the Top-2 selected WRs (regardless of where they were picked) in the NFL Draft (in the last decade) going on to be good/great in the NFL -- is 0.0%...not a good omen for at least one of Jones or Green          *See the full WR Draft pick argument/research here = NFL Draft 2011 - Why are you so sure Julio Jones and A.J. Green are NFL "Locks"? A Look at the Comedy that is WR Draft Picks in the NFL - Fantasy Football 2011

Despite the major statistical trend against it, there actually have been elite WRs found at the top of the NFL Draft in the past decade. The 3 times this decade an elite WR was found with a Top-15 pick -- Larry Fitzgerald (#3 overall), Andre Johnson (#3 overall) and Calvin Johnson (#1 overall). All of the other recent elite big-time WRs, and even very good WRs, are found after overall pick #15...actually they are normally found after the first 3 WRs are taken in the NFL Draft, no matter how high or low those 3 WRs are selected in the draft (again, see research on this above).

"Smart" teams (NE, PITT, IND, etc) love to let desperate teams with (perpetual) high draft picks waste huge sums of payroll and waste a roster spot on overpriced, mostly useless/bust WRs. All the while the "smart" teams pick up the true best WRs of the NFL Draft at much lower prices. Even the few times the "blind squirrel found the nut" (Fitzgerald, Calvin and Andre Johnson), it hasn't amounted to much -- their teams still continue to post sub-.500 records most every season.

The few highly selected WRs that truly panned out to be elite recently, have had little impact in turning their franchise -- so there is an argument, for example, in NOT paying Larry Fitzgerald a fortune to be your franchise player. I love Fitzgerald, but statistically speaking or business-wise -- having all your money tied up in a star WR doesn't seem to be panning out too well in terms of sustainable wins and Super Bowl wins (or runs at it). Compare that to what a Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, etc can do for your franchise. Frontline QBs have a pretty instant, sustainable, and franchise turning impact -- to me, that is the more smarter spend of $10-15M+ a year. Give me Darrelle Revis, Nnamdi Asomugha, Julius Peppers, D'Brickashaw Ferguson for that kind of money, you have Calvin and Andre Johnson with your dollars.

Actually, don't take my word for it...take Bill Belichick's.

We would all agree the New England Patriots have been the smartest personnel team in the NFL over the last decade (they are not my favorite team, but you absolutely have to respect the work they have done). What have the Patriots done at WR within their business model? Yes, they got Randy Moss -- but "on the cheap" with a 4th Round Draft pick trade with Oakland (how many Super Bowls has Moss won, how many did he take Oakland and Minnesota to?). The Pats dumped Moss this past year...and were you part of the "that's the stupidest thing I've ever seen" crowd when he was traded/given away? Post Randy Moss trade in 2010, Tom Brady then goes on to have an incredible MVP season with passing targets of -- 2 rookie TEs, an undrafted slot WR and several other spare part WRs picked up along the way...cheap WRs.

"Smart" NFL teams, and the amount of Top-15 picks used on a WR since 2003 (random order):

• 0 = New England (#36 overall in 2006 is their highest, Chad Jackson)
• 0 = Indianapolis (#32 overall in 2007 is their highest, Anthony Gonzalez)
• 0 = Pittsburgh (#25 overall in 2006 is their highest, Santonio Holmes)
• 0 = NY Giants (#29 overall in 2009 is their highest, Hakeem Nicks)
• 0 = Green Bay (#36 overall in 2008 is their highest, Jordy Nelson)
• 0 = San Diego (#30 overall in 2007 is their highest, Craig Davis)
• 0 = NY Jets (#108 overall in 2004 is their highest, Jerricho Cotchery)
• 0 = New Orleans (#27 overall in 2007 is their highest, Robert Meachem)
• 0 = Baltimore (#22 overall in 2007 is their highest, Mark Clayton)
• 0 = Philadelphia (#19 overall in 2007 is their highest, Jeremy Maclin)

How does it work out when you reach and overpay for flashy WRs with Top-15 draft picks? How did Matt Millen do with Charles Rogers (#2 overall 2003), Roy Williams (#7 overall 2004), Mike Williams (#10 overall 2005)? Even when the Lions landed Calvin Johnson (#1 overall) in 2007, not soon after that the Lions went on to an 0-16 season. I'm not an NFL organizational expert, but looking at where all these Top-15 WRs went to and the how their team was effected -- I think I would have learned after the first 2-3 times that I "burnt my hand on the stove". I pick on Detroit, but you could have Oakland or any number of teams that have crapped out on high draft pick WRs recently...most all the "usual suspect" teams have high draft picks again this year...and 2 of them will (again) likely make the mistake of drafting Julio Jones or A.J. Green too high.

Teams that have taken a WR with a Top-15 pick since 2003:

• Buffalo
• Cleveland
• Detroit (4 times)
• Houston
• Jacksonville
• Miami
• Minnesota
• Oakland
• San Francisco
• Tampa Bay

For the list above, the amount of Super Bowls appeared in since the selection of that Top-15 WR is ONE (Arizona 2009 with Larry Fitzgerald). Another thing these 10 teams above have in common...none of them had a winning record last season (Jacksonville was the best at 8-8).

You may have the thought process on WRs that perhaps, "the QB makes more difference on the WR". Which may be true (I tend to lean that way), and it is another reason not to waste a high draft pick on a WR. "Smart" NFL teams get their QB situation locked down first, never/rarely pick in the first 10 picks again (if they do, they don't waste the pick on a WR) and yet the "smart" teams still find excellent receivers in the 2nd-7th Rounds and even to add injury to insult; they get them as undrafted free agents as well. The "Final-4" teams from the NFL this year -- no Top-15 WR draft pick WRs on the roster THAT THEY SELECTED. The Jets did get Braylon Edwards (a Cleveland Browns #3 overall in 2005) in a fairly cheap trade.

WRs are incredibly overrated and overvalued in the NFL Draft. Some teams are very aware of this, and apparently some aren't...as it is about to happen again in 2011 with at least 2 of this year's eligible WRs. Again, that's not to say Green or Jones won't be good, the question is -- should you use a high draft pick on them?

I have always been intrigued about why the WR position is such a disaster in the NFL Draft for certain multi-million/billion dollar corporations/teams. We all seem to give NFL teams a pass, assuming "they must know more than I do, and they have all that money for scouting". If we've learned anything from the last 2 years in our nation's economic woes -- businesses can be big and fail, and even multi-million/billion dollar NFL teams can operate poorly as well.

Since I cannot trust the order that NFL WRs are taken to be my guide on which WRs are actually going to be good, I set out to develop my own system. For me to excel in higher stakes Fantasy Football competition (which parallels to what NFL teams are generally looking for too), I wanted to be aware of the "hidden" best WRs -- I wanted to be like the "smart" NFL teams...I want to be one step ahead of the others.

Trying to find the "next great NFL WR"...or finding a really good one...or at least avoiding a "bust"

A couple years ago I worked on a mathematical formula for the NFL "skill" positions -- inspired by the work of Bill James in mathematical analysis of baseball players ("Sabermetrics") and the baseball scouting and draft theory of Billy Beane and the Oakland A's, captured incredibly in the book "Moneyball". Honestly, I did it to improve my Fantasy Football winning percentages. I shared the output with people who seemed to like it and it grew into sharing it on a website with others I thought might find it interesting and beneficial. At worst it is an interesting (to poke holes at) page-filler, at best (and I have found this) it is 70%+ successful in ruling in or weeding out future NFL skill position performance in the NFL. It's not infallible, nothing is. I just play it like a poker player -- I want the odds in my favor.

I started the WR statistical theory similarly to the recently released QB mathematical formula that we opened up to our readers. Actually, the WR formula was the forerunner of RB and TE work...and then finally finding a combination of data we like that worked with QBs. I am not going to give the entire detail/exact formula out -- as I have said before, that would be dumb of me to "give away". I will show the output with some details, and we will see going forward if I'm to be believed or mocked.

The key points to the theory:

• FINAL SEASON PERFORMANCE METRICS -- for WRs we look at their entire body/full season of work in their final season, but then also separate a different analysis of the individual WRs performance by looking at only key games/tougher opponent matchups. How did their performance stack up against tougher competition? We also look at WR performance in context of their team's passing game performance. What's a better receiving performance in a game, 2 TDs or 1 TD in that game? If the 2 TD game for the WR happened against a FCS/D-II team in which the QB threw for 6 TDs overall, is that a better performance than the QB throwing 1 TD all game against (example) Alabama -- and the WR we are researching was the recipient of that 1 TD pass? Which performance is more impressive? That is an extreme example, but just trying to show that we are not looking at pure stat accumulation, which often leads many down a bad path of judging WRs. Our numbers look to equalize performance based on pass attempts of the offense, etc -- so we avoid making a Michael Crabtree like mistake (which we successfully avoided/screamed from the rooftops). See 2010 research -- WR Hakeem Nicks  and Michael Crabtree - Fantasy Football 2010 Picks and Projections

 

• PHYSICAL MEASUREABLES -- A WR can be a good/gritty college performer, but if that same WR is too slow, and/or not agile enough, and/or has small hands, etc as it translates to the NFL level...then that WR is going to have a near impossible time making a dent in the pros. Not because I think so, I know so based on the performance history of recent WRs with the same attributes. I don't judge anything by "my eyes", it is all measurements taken from the NFL Combine and Pro-Days, which I know there can be flaws in that data -- but, it's all we have to measure by and it seems to actually be playing out in a predictable pattern historically...so I do trust it, realizing it could let me down on small occasion...nothing is infallible. *Sometimes a few of the physical data points do not reliably exist, especially the further you go back in time, we just assume neutral (not good or bad) on the missing info

 

• THE ELITE WRs -- Our marker for the study is the current "elite" WRs, as well as current "good" WRs in the NFL. I attempted to find performance and physical characteristics for "elite-ness" with a control group that most would agree upon -- Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin etc. The "good" (maybe could become great) WRs examples are a Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall, Miles Austin, etc. We attempted to find out what the currently successful good/great NFL WRs have in common their last season of college and NFL Combine type measureables vs. WRs who "busted" in the NFL -- especially the high pick busts (Reggie Williams, Chad Jackson, Devin Thomas, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Roy Williams, etc)

I take all this data and assign values to it depending upon how hot the data trend is on it. I take all the data measurements together and try to set them up as like a school grade (of sorts). The very successful/potentially elite projecting WRs will score 0.800 and greater. The 1.000+ scorers in our system are a very high probable for elite status.

What I can't quantify:

• CHARACTER -- there is just no way to assign a value to it. Especially as most "troublesome" WRs, seem to wind up putting up numbers. Me personally, I would take the system score and then interview the player to see if that's who I wanted in my organization, which Billy Beane/"Moneyball" does...but I don't have the ability to interview all the players I want to (and I don't want to take 2nd hand subjective information). So our score is just based on performance/measureables/things we can quantify.

 

• INJURY -- this is a potential downfall of our system for evaluating certain/specific players. Best example is Missouri's Danario Alexander (now St. Louis Rams WR). A great prospect in our system, battling knee injuries and had surgery from his Senior season end to the NFL Draft...the injury and off-season surgery caused him to fall from sure fire top WR pick to ultimately undrafted. Alexander's performance and measureables are exciting in our system, but we cannot quantify injury especially post-season -- again, you would have to do your injury homework on the player as well, we just look at what we can measure.

 

• HEART -- I threw this in there because on our QB mathematical research reports we released; I get a lot of emails such as, "well, ______ has a ton of heart"...I'm not sure how anyone has measured that. I cannot (nor can you) measure "heart". If so, Rudy Ruettiger (from the movie "Rudy"...) would be our #1 rated WR/DE of all time.

 

One last thing before we show our current historical WR database/basis of research -- We are looking at "Big WRs" on this particular study ("smalls" will be later).

I call them "Big WR" as opposed to a "Small WR"...the small being a WR that fits a more prototypical "slot" type WR, or "possession" WR. It is not fair to try to judge Wes Welker to Randy Moss, it doesn't make any sense. My ruler on what I call a "Big WR" (6'0+ and 205 pounds or more, or 6'2+ at any weight level) may be debatable; but it's my ruler...

With all that being said here is the output of our rating system with the WRs we have analyzed so far...

RESULTS OF OUR REGRESSION ANALYSIS SYSTEM FOR COLLEGE WRs

LEGEND FOR RATINGS:

• SPEED = a combination of various speed measurements, measured against our database on similar WRs
• AGILITY = a combination of various agility test measurements, measured against our database on similar WRs
• HANDS = a combination of performance metrics and physical metrics to grade "hands" or ability to catch the ball translated ahead to the NFL. A unique/private metric of ours.
• TD = a combination of performance metrics and physical metrics to grade "TD catching prowess", a kinda "red zone factor" translating ahead to the NFL. A unique/private metric of ours.

*school grade system, A+ being the best in class historically all the way to F- as historically the worst combination of metrics -- all based on what WRs with those measurements did (or didn't do) in the NFL.

**WRs with scores over 0.800 should be on the radar screen for very good/possible elite; and +1.000 ratings we would pay very close attention to as a possible future elite NFL WR

***The "skill" ratings (Hands, Speed, Agility) are a few category grades we are showing, there are many more metrics and measurements considered, but we thought we'd report out on these 4 just as an FYI on the some key items the system evaluated.

****You will see most of the WRs in our database that we researched are from the last 7-8 years of Drafts, as we travel further back in time that data we need becomes harder and harder to find. We try to include WRs we have fairly reliable data on; and are adding more as time goes on.

Rating	Last	First	Yr	College	H	H	W	Hands	Speed	Agility	TD
1.659	Jackson	Vincent	2005	N. Colorado	6	4.8	241	A	B	A-	A+
1.592	Edwards	Braylon	2005	Michigan	6	3.0	210	A	B	A-	A+
1.500	Johnson	Calvin	2007	Georgia Tech	6	5.0	239	A+	A	INC	A+
1.483	Nicks	Hakeem	2009	UNC	6	0.6	212	A+	B	B-	A+
1.403	Moss	Randy	1997	Marshall	6	4.0	205	A+	A	INC	A+
1.333	Fitzgerald	Larry	2004	Pittsburgh	6	3.1	221	A	B-	INC	A+
1.216	Austin	Miles	2006	Monmouth	6	2.1	215	B+	B-	C+	A+
1.142	White	Roddy	2005	UAB	6	1.3	207	A	B	B-	A
1.104	Alexander	Danario	2010	Missouri	6	5.0	215	A+	D+	INC	A+
1.005	Walker	Javon	2002	Florida State	6	3.0	210	B-	A	B+	C+
0.972	Bryant	Dez	2010	Oklahoma	6	2.0	225	A+	B-	C-	A+
0.971	Johnson	Andre	2002	Miami, Fla	6	2.0	220	B	B+	B+	C+
0.954	Dickerson	Dorin	2010	Pittsburgh	6	1.8	226	C+	A-	B-	A-
0.902	Meachem	Robert	2007	Tennessee	6	2.0	214	B	A-	B-	A
0.863	Robiskie	Brian	2009	Ohio State	6	2.7	209	B-	B-	A	A-
0.860	Sims-Walker	Mike	2007	C. Florida	6	1.8	209	A	A	B-	B-
0.857	Bowe	Dwayne	2007	LSU	6	2.2	221	B+	C	A-	B+
0.813	Rogers	Charles	2003	Michigan State	6	2.3	202	B	B+	INC	A
0.801	Colston	Marques	2006	Hofstra	6	4.6	224	C+	C	B-	B-

 

Rating	Last	First	Yr	College	H	H	W	Hands	Speed	Agility	TD
0.791	Avant	Jason	2006	Michigan	6	0.5	212	B+	C	B-	C+
0.787	Jackson	Chad	2006	Florida	6	0.8	213	B-	A	A+	C
0.786	Williams	Roy	2004	Texas	6	2.5	212	A	B	A-	B+
0.781	Simpson	Jerome	2008	Costal Carolina	6	2.0	199	B+	B+	D	A+
0.773	Marshall	Brandon	2006	C. Florida	6	4.5	229	B-	C-	B-	B+
0.771	Robinson	Laurent	2007	Illinois State	6	2.0	199	B+	A+	B	B+
0.759	Thomas	Demaryius	2010	Georgia Tech	6	3.3	224	A	C	C	A-
0.741	Jones	James	2006	San Jose State	6	0.8	207	A-	C	C	B
0.720	Williamson	Troy	2005	South Carolina	6	2.0	203	C+	A	C+	B
0.716	Britt	Kenny	2009	Rutgers	6	2.7	218	B-	C+	C	B-
0.674	Baskett	Hank	2006	New Mexico	6	3.0	224	B-	C+	B	C+
0.651	Massaquoi	Mohamed	2009	Georgia	6	1.5	210	B+	D	INC	C
0.649	Hardy	James	2008	Indiana	6	5.0	220	B	B	B	C+
0.642	Monk	Marcus	2008	Arkansas	6	4.0	222	B+	C	C	B+
0.633	Nelson	Jordy	2008	Kansas St	6	2.6	217	A+	B-	C+	B+
0.628	Naanee	Legedu	2007	Boise St	6	2.1	225	D	A-	A	C
0.616	Barden	Ramses	2009	Cal Poly	6	6.0	229	A+	C-	D+	B+
0.602	Schilens	Chaz	2008	San Diego State	6	4.0	225	C-	A-	B	C+
0.600	Williams	Mike	2010	Syracuse	6	1.5	221	B	C	B	B+
0.590	Heyward-Bey	Darrius	2009	Maryland	6	1.5	210	D	A+	B+	C
0.589	Davis	Craig	2007	LSU	6	1.4	207	C	B+	INC	D-
0.586	Orton	Greg	2009	Purdue	6	2.5	207	C-	D+	B	D+
0.583	Crabtree	Michael	2009	Texas Tech	6	1.3	215	B-	D	INC	C+
0.576	Jenkins	Michael	2004	Ohio State	6	5.0	217	B-	D+	C	B-
0.558	Morgan	Josh	2008	Virginia Tech	6	0.3	219	C+	B-	C-	C+
0.545	Benn	Arrellious	2010	Illinois	6	1.0	219	C	C+	C	F
0.538	Cotchery	Jerricho	2004	NC State	6	1.0	212	C-	C	A+	C
0.537	Williams	Stephen	2010	Toledo	6	4.5	210	C	B	A-	C-
0.534	Decker	Eric	2010	Minnesota	6	3.1	217	B-	C	B-	B-
0.525	Jarrett	Dewayne	2007	USC	6	3.0	215	C	C+	D+	B-
0.495	Easley	Marcus	2010	Connecticut	6	2.8	210	D-	A+	C+	C+
0.491	White	Blair	2010	Michigan State	6	2.3	209	C	B-	A+	C+
0.471	Cooper	Riley	2010	Florida	6	3.4	222	C	C	INC	C
0.440	Foster	Brooks	2009	UNC	6	0.4	211	C	B	INC	F-
0.437	Arrington	Adrian	2008	Michigan	6	2.9	203	B-	C	INC	C+
0.429	Kent	Jordan	2007	Oregon	6	4.1	217	C	C	INC	C+
0.429	Clayton	Michael	2004	LSU	6	3.0	209	B	D-	A+	C+
0.429	Williams	Mike	2005	USC	6	4.6	229	B	C	B-	B
0.418	LaFell	Brandon	2010	LSU	6	2.5	211	C-	D	B	C-
0.411	Turner	Patrick	2009	USC	6	5.1	223	D+	C	B	D-
0.399	Edison	Dominique	2009	SF Austin	6	2.1	204	F	B	C	C+
0.398	Stovall	Maurice	2006	Notre Dame	6	4.8	217	C	C	B+	C
0.390	Rice	Sidney	2007	South Carolina	6	3.5	200	B-	B-	C	B+
0.389	Gibson	Brandon	2009	Washington St	6	0.3	206	C	C	C+	C
0.316	Gettis	David	2010	Rice	6	3.0	217	C-	C+	B-	C-
0.312	Iglesias	Juaquin	2009	Oklahoma	6	0.8	210	C	C	D	D
0.310	Franklin	Will	2008	Missouri	6	1.0	214	D-	A+	INC	D
0.290	Mitchell	Marko	2009	Nevada	6	3.5	218	B+	B+	C	B+
0.248	Boldin	Anquan	2003	Florida State	6	1.0	216	B	D-	D-	B
0.223	Orr	Jonathan	2006	Wisconsin	6	2.0	198	C	B-	C-	B-
0.201	Aromashodu	Devin	2006	Auburn	6	2.5	201	F	B+	C+	F+
0.182	Thomas	Devin	2008	Michigan State	6	1.8	216	B	A-	C-	D+
0.158	Meier	Kerry	2010	Kansas	6	2.0	220	B	D+	B-	C+
0.127	Kelly	Aaron	2010	Clemson	6	4.4	204	C	B	D	C-
0.099	Means	Andrew	2009	Indiana	6	0.5	214	C-	B-	B+	F
0.085	Purify	Maurice	2008	Nebraska	6	3.0	224	D	C+	B	D
0.077	Johnson	Taurus	2009	S. Florida	6	0.4	206	D-	B	D-	C+
0.051	Johnson	Steven	2008	Kentucky	6	2.0	210	C	C	C	D-
0.030	Kelly	Malcolm	2009	Oklahoma	6	4.0	224	D+	D-	C	D-
-0.010	Henry	Marcus	2008	Kansas	6	3.6	207	F	C	C	C-
-0.050	Murphy	Louis	2009	Florida	6	2.3	203	D-	B	B-	D
-0.090	Briscoe	Dezmon	2010	Kansas	6	2.0	207	C	D	D-	B-
-0.144	Williams	Jaison	2009	Oregon	6	4.1	237	D-	D	F	D
-0.216	Ajirotutu	Seyi	2010	Fresno St	6	4.0	204	C	C+	D	C-
-0.232	Sweed	Limas	2008	Texas	6	3.8	215	F	B-	C	F
-0.239	Doucet	Early	2008	LSU	6	0.0	209	D	C	F	F+
-0.361	Mix	Anthony	2006	Auburn	6	4.0	235	D-	C	D-	F

 

We are not saying that Vincent Jackson is going to be the best WR that ever lived, but we are saying that everyone up in that high scoring tier (1.000+) has much in common with future NFL elite WRs of the modern day. We are really trying to find WRs that are scoring over 0.800 to take a deeper look at what NFL team/QB they wind up with, as WRs that may have much better than average output in the NFL. What we really want is to look at 0.950+ WRs, looking for that possible "next great" NFL WR. Of equal interest, we want the system to tell us about highly thought of (in the media/conventional wisdom) college WRs that are going to be a high probability bust in the NFL. Again, I am looking at it from a Fantasy Football/stat productivity level...but it also works hand-in-hand with their NFL franchise value.

19 WRs scored at the higher 0.800+ level, and you might take umbrage with 2 or 3 of them -- even if you cross off as many as 4 of them as "dead money"....that is an 75%+ "project-ability" success. I will expand on some of these WRs in more detail below, but I would argue that if we take out the WRs that we don't fully know about yet (Robiskie, Dickerson, etc) and also the WRs who showed real star talent, but got injured and/or other trouble (Edwards, Rogers) -- it leaves one very likely non-elite/failure WRs that can probably be judged in Robert Meachem...who is good (in my estimation), but not at an elite level.

Of the 60+ other WRs that scored below 0.800, taking away the too-soon-to-tells, there area few low rated system WRs that raise an eye-brow like Anquan Boldin, Mike Sims-Walker, Sidney Rice, Jerricho Cotchery, Mike Williams/TB maybe even a Stevie Johnson -- but I would not label any of them as elite or future elite. Anquan Boldin we could hotly debate on that, but if we miss out on him and go 49 for 50 on making non-elite WR judgment calls...and 45+ of 50 of them going on to be mediocre or busts WRs, I feel good about those predictive ratios.  

 

The 2 very questionable WRs that have achieved a 0.800+ rating level

The huge miss among that list our #19, Charles Rogers. Keep in mind that Charles Rogers started his first 5 games as a rookie in 2003 and then broke his collarbone, then broke it again in the first game of 2004. Substance abuse issues, etc then ensued...again; I can't quantify character or injury. Pre-2003 season injury, Rogers was on a pace for a 70 catch, 800 yards, and 10 TD rookie season. We really are not sure what would have happened if healthy, but ultimately he has to be classified as a "bust" (or unlucky), but there was some evidence that he could play/excel in the NFL.

Braylon Edwards is our #2 overall, and most would classify him as a bust...and I probably would too. However, before any of us rule him a complete bust. Edwards has shown some extended flashes of good; and flashes of brilliance. His 2007 season with 16 TDs and 1,289 yards working with Derek Anderson was amazing. Edwards has at least proven at certain points he was capable of being an NFL elite WR. Again, I cannot quantify character or whatever else ails someone off the field.

 

The 2 unusual WRs that have achieved 0.950+ rating level

14 WRs are above 0.950+, the ones that may seem odd are Danario Alexander and Dorin Dickerson. We mentioned Alexander earlier, minus injury issues he could be a superstar. Haven't heard of him? Did you know he had a pretty good 2010 NFL season, despite being undrafted, playing only 6 games...and getting injured (again)?

2010 Rookie WRs, games with 70+ yards in the 2010 season:

1. 5 = Mike Williams, TB
2. 3 = Danario Alexander, STL
3. 3 = Dez Bryant, DAL
4. 3 = Jordan Shipley, CINN
5. 2 = Jacoby Ford, OAK

2010 Rookie WRs, PERCENTAGE of games played with 70+ yards in the 2010 season:

1. 50% = Danario Alexander, STL
2. 31% = Mike Williams, TB
3. 25% = Dez Bryant, DAL
4. 20% = Jordan Shipley, CINN
5. 20% = Jacoby Ford, OAK

2010 Rookie WRs, 6+ catches in a game in the 2010 season:

1. 3 = Dez Bryant, DAL
2. 2 = Mike Williams, TB
3. 2 = Brandon LaFell, CAR
4. 1 = Danario Alexander, STL
5. 1 = 4 other rookies

Dorin Dickerson is going to be a quite a test for our system, most fans aren't aware that Dorin Dickerson is an actual NFL player. He is the 7th Round pick of the Houston Texans in the 2010 NFL Draft. He was a special teamer and developmental player for Houston. Why "developmental"?...in college Dickerson played FB, TE and lastly a WR...the WR position is still a little raw to Dickerson. Dickerson is a physical monster, with pretty good receiving metrics in college given his different roles. Dickerson is a major superstar watch for us -- if healthy and no other issues.

 

Notable WRs who we would have missed/passed on based on our system ratings:

The WR algorithm was not excited about Mike Williams (TB) as a top level WR. He had a very good rookie season in 2010, but I am still a huge skeptic as I watched a lot of tape of him this past season...as I was calling "bust" all the while he kept scoring TDs. I think problems are looming, and I will write about that upcoming...but for now Williams looks like a potential system miss. I still do not think Mike Williams will be an elite NFL WR, "good" at best.

Anquan Boldin scored horrible in our system. He is a debatable elite NFL WR for his career, but definitely was very, very good at minimum. Check the numbers, his "image" as an elite WR may be much better than his actual career numbers; again not taking anything away from a very good career.

Sidney Rice scored weak as well. Rice had a great 2009, not so great 2010 (but was injured). One good season does not an elite make. Rice has been in the NFL for 4 seasons and has given us 3/4ths of one good season. I need to see a lot more before I would entertain Rice as anywhere near elite.

 

The 2011 NFL Draft WRs ratings and research reports

We will be publishing individual WR research reports, similar to our QB reports, over the next couple weeks. Get ready for a few major analysis that break from conventional wisdom.

 

 

 

Select a position from the tabs below to see stats and scouting information for that respective position.

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