*"Small WR" = under 6'2 and under 204 pounds, or
under 6'0 tall no matter what, our "Big WRs"
= 6'0+ and 205+ pounds,
or 6'2+ no matter what weight
*See the full WR Draft pick
argument/research here =
NFL Draft 2011 - Why are you so sure Julio Jones
and A.J. Green are NFL "Locks"? A Look at the
Comedy that is WR Draft Picks in the NFL -
Fantasy Football 2011 ...
...
As well as our Part I companion work rating the
"Big WRs"
NFL Draft 2011 - In Search of the Next Great NFL
WR -- a Mathematical Analysis of College WRs -
Fantasy Football 2011 ...
... and Part II on the
"Small WRs"
NFL Draft 2011 - In Search of the Next Great NFL
WR -- a Mathematical Analysis of College WRs,
Part II - Fantasy Football 2011
As I looked at the 2011 college WR prospect
lists back in January, I had heard of, and/or
seen play, every WR listed among the early
top-5...except for one of them -- Torrey
Smith WR Maryland. Immediately, I wanted to
run Smith's numbers in our system and do the
research to see what kind of prospect he rated
out to be in our mathematical system. What
occurred during the research was something we
had not really run into before.
Our outlook on Torrey Smith all hinged
on "one pound" -- not the British currency kind,
but the on-the-scale kind. I am going to explain
this one pound in detail in a moment, and you
can make your own opinion...because it speaks to
a greater point, as well as this particular one
pound wildly changing our mathematical
scouting/projections.
To analyze college WRs, we separate them into
2 "classes" = big and small. Small is a bit
demeaning, but it's an easy one-word way to make
the point (see greater detail on big/small logic
on the story links above). The quick explanation
is, not all WRs are the same; they perform
different "jobs" in the NFL. What Randy Moss
is asked to do in the NFL versus what Wes
Welker is asked to do -- is completely
different (this is putting it simplistically).
Neither Welker, nor Moss could do what the other
does...if asked to -- both might be NFL busts if
switched in their "roles" (think about that for
a moment, I had to...on thinking about the
problem with Moss as an over the middle
possession WR). Depending upon the physical
attributes, WRs will have different utilization
and job performance in the NFL; yet typically
all we receive from the media is one giant list
of WR prospects rated from 1 to infinity. To us,
these WRs are not doing the same future
work...so why would you rank them on the same
list; or evaluate them as the same?
We ultimately separated WR by "type" as logic
seemed to dictate it as well as the regression
analysis/data trending "told us" we needed to
separate these WRs into different "classes".
Our scouting/mathematical analysis is first and
foremost for Fantasy Football, trying to
determine players to invest heavy in, or stay
far away from...and everything in-between. On
many levels, the analysis works for projecting
their usefulness to an NFL team as well.
How we mathematically judge/project WRs
within our system is different whether they are
considered "big" or "small"...as the typical
profiles of future NFL elite WRs that were "big"
and "small" were also different in many ways,
and thus our formulas/metrics are different as
we judge each type. For us, a "small WR" is
under 6'0" tall or is 6'0"-6'2", but weighs less
than 205 pounds (and WR over 6'2 is "big" no
matter what weight class). Some may beg to
differ, which is cool...but we had to "split
the hair" somewhere, and based on our data
this was a logical way to do it. With Torrey
Smith, we actually got down to a hair to
split.
Torrey Smith is a great example of an
unusual conundrum rating a WR for us, with our
system trying to "guess" how a WR will be used
in the future in the NFL. As we went to separate
Smith into his "class" for our analysis, we saw
that he weighed 204 pounds. In our system, a WR
that is between 6'0"-6'2" and is also under 205
pounds = "small WR" (Smith is 6'0.8" tall). Had
he been 1 pound heavier on weigh-in day, he
would have qualified as a "big WR" in our
system. The one pound makes a gigantic
difference for projecting Torrey Smith.
When projecting Torrey Smith as a "big WR" in
our system, he has a few red-flags when looking
at the "big WR" data historically; and he rates
out as a future mediocre/good NFL "big WR" --
with a very low probability of becoming an NFL
elite, with a many red-flags for a bust.
However, as a "small WR"...Smith is one of the
highest rated WRs we have in the past 5 years.
The best way to put it simply -- Torrey
Smith, if thought of as a team's "big WR",
would likely be mediocre-to-bust in the NFL.
Smith cannot compare to a (example) Hakeem
Nicks...who is also under 6'2 (so Nicks is a
smaller, "big WR"), but Nicks is physically much
bigger and has more dominant physical metrics
translating better for a "big WR". Comparing
Torrey Smith to Nicks, or bigger "big WRs"
like Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson
etc...Smith would be lost amongst this "big WR"
list.
When you compare Torrey Smith as a
"small WR", a WR that is more over-the-middle,
short game, using speed to occasionally go deep,
may return some kicks/punts etc -- Smith is by
far the best "small WR" in the 2011 class...and
one of the best "small WR" we have rated in the
past 5+ years. Torrey Smith can be
(potentially) a Greg Jennings or
Jeremy Maclin...both Jennings and Maclin you
would not mistake for (or draft ahead of)
Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson,
etc. If an NFL teams needs a "small WR" role
filled, Smith is a potential "home run". If the
take him and force him into a "big WR" role, our
mathematical analysis thinks he is to struggle
or be under-utilized.
Many of you know, I think early 1st Round
draft pick WR's are huge mistake (from a
business perspective and output perspective). An
even worse business decision is taking a "small
WR" early...or anywhere in the 1st Round. Elite
"Big WRs" are much harder to come by. Whereas
good/great "small WRs" are typically readily
available every year, and sometimes even
fleet-of-foot college QBs can be plucked late in
the draft and turned into capable/good "small
WRs" (i.e. Julian Edelman most
recently). It is a supply/demand
thing...there is typically plenty of supply so
the price/value of a "small WR" isn't great,
especially given how often these "investments"
get injured (long or short term injuries) and
thus become low-return business assets. The
style of work a "small WR" does, the smaller
physical frames they have, and the hits they
tend to take...it's a bad mistake to reach high
in the draft for a "small WR", especially when
(like the Colts or Patriots seem to be well
aware of) these "small WRs" seem to be plenty
available later in the drafts (or available
cheaply as free-agents).
What the Patriots did with Deion Branch
over the past few years is a perfect microcosm
of the whole "small WR" value issue:
- The Patriots drafted Branch in the late
2nd Round in 2002, and he performed well
- Branch wanted a ton of money after 2005,
so the Patriots dumped him to the Seahawks
for a future 1st Round draft pick (and
everyone was up in arms about stupid and
callous this was...it wasn't, it was
brilliant...to me)
- The Seahawks paid Branch a ton of money,
and he never played full season for them due
to injuries...and then not performing that
great when he was playing (definitely played
not well enough to justify the money he was
paid, an overall bad investment by Seattle)
- The Patriots grabbed him back from
Seattle last year for a 4th Round draft
pick, and he had a career high season for
TDs
The Patriots have had Branch for his best
performances, within his lowest payroll cost --
which is brilliant. The Patriots know a "small
WR" is not that big of a commodity, and is
easily replaceable. One WR the Pats brought in
the following year after Branch was shipped
out...Wes Welker. The Patriots understand
supply/demand and business/market economics; the
Seahawks not so much...
Torrey Smith may break the rule of not
drafting a "small WR" early in 2011. Not just
because he grades out so high, but because on a
supply/demand equation (in our statistical
opinion) -- this 2011 "small WR" class is weak,
and it follows an incredibly weak 2010 class. As
an NFL GM, if I wanted a "big WR"...I have
A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Leonard
Hankerson, Jonathan Baldwin, or a Greg
Little as WR's I would have an interest in
(and all at various prices, many of them
cheaper/mid-draft picks). As an NFL GM, if I was
looking for a "small WR", it's Smith and one
other (that I will name later this week) WR to
consider as a potential future "elite". This
would be a year where a team may need to
overspend a bit, if they desire a frontline
"small WR" .
What makes Torrey Smith
so highly rated in our system?
Torrey Smith is in a rarified air among
"small WRs" in our mathematical analysis. When
running his data through the system, his
positive "green-flags" (as opposed to
"red-flags") are on a level with following names
(and we have 8 WRs at our highest levels for
Green-Flag counts) -- Pierre Garcon, Mike
Wallace, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin,
Steve Smith (USC), Arman Shields
(injured before career started) and our mystery
2011 "small WR" to be named later. Barring
injury, Torrey Smith is a near perfect
"small WR" prospect -- physically great, and
with the on-field performance/metrics in our
system to back it up.
Smith is in the top-3 in many key physical
attributes among the 2011 "small WRs" we are
concentrating on, and above average in all of
them. A look at some of his top-3 measureables:
- #1 in the 10-yard dash, #2 in the
20-yard dash, #4 in the 40-yard dash
- #1 Vertical leap recorded (a very high
historical level no matter what position
compared to)
- #2 in Bench Press
- #2 Strongest/sturdiest "small WR" in a
unique physical metric we developed
Smith is also the #2 on-field performer in
our raw performance metrics, 2nd to Walsh
College's Joseph Morgan (there's in a name to
look up, spoiler alert -- not elite rated in our
system). When we factor in strength of
opponent, Smith is the #1 on-field performer
among all "small WRs" in our system, and no WR
is really close. Smith "on paper" is almost the
perfect WR prospect.
The NFL WR that is the
best match of Torrey Smith in our system:
Looking at similar sized "small WRs" with top
notch physical and performance metrics in our
system, it really comes down to Greg Jennings
and Jeremy Maclin. Looking closer,
Smith is really the best of both worlds here --
Maclin was very high on physical metric grades
and Jennings very high on-field performance
metrics...Smith is like Maclin physically, with
the high on-field performance (in our system) of
Jennings.
Torrey Smith has smaller than average
hands, which is his only real metrics
"issue"...but hand-size hasn't been a big
"translation-to-the-NFL" factor for these
college "smaller WRs". Small hand-size is more
an issue for the bigger WRs translating ahead.
LEGEND FOR RATINGS:
- SPEED = a combination of speed
measurements from the NFL Combine/Pro-Days,
measured against our database on similar
WRs
- AGILITY = a combination of
agility test measurements from the NFL
Combine/Pro-Days, measured against our database on similar WRs
- HANDS = a combination of
performance metrics and physical metrics to
grade "hands" or ability to catch the ball
translated ahead to the NFL. A
unique/private metric of ours.
- INJURY = an injury risk rating
based on a unique/private metric of ours, as
injury seems to be an issue with this group
*school grade system, A+ being the best in
class historically all the way to F- as
historically the worst combination of metrics --
all based on what WRs with those measurements
did (or didn't do) in the NFL.
|
LAST |
FIRST |
Draft Year |
COLLEGE |
H |
H |
W |
40-y |
Hands |
Speed |
Agility |
INJ |
|
Smith |
Torrey |
2011 |
Maryland |
6 |
0.9 |
204 |
4.41 |
A- |
B |
B+ |
Low |
|
Maclin |
Jeremy |
2009 |
Missouri |
6 |
0.1 |
198 |
4.45 |
B |
B- |
A |
Low |
|
Jennings |
Greg |
2006 |
W. Michigan |
5 |
11.0 |
197 |
4.42 |
A+ |
B- |
B+ |
Low |
Torrey Smith Overall
System Score = 1.160
* See this story for background on our system
scoring methodology for "small WRs" --
NFL Draft 2011 - In Search of the Next Great NFL
WR -- a Mathematical Analysis of College WRs,
Part II - Fantasy Football 2011
Torrey Smith rated as a
"big WR"
We did run Smith as a "big WR", and he did
rate above A.J. Green...but so did 7
other "big WRs" in our system. Smith analyzed as
a "big WR" rated at 0.741 in our system, which
is outside of our potential future elite level
(again see links above for historical scoring)
and "good/mediocre" NFL performance projection
at best. Smith is a very good WR, but just not a
prototypical "big WR"; and our system sees some
bust potential for him if he is used that way.
Smith was the #8 "big WR" in our system for
2011, and as mentioned prior -- the #1 "small
WR" in our system.
2011 NFL DRAFT Outlook
for Torrey Smith
Torrey Smith is a top-5 WR on most
media draft boards, which is fair. Where I think
the huge media mistake is -- is in rating other
"small WR's" Randall Cobb or Titus
Young ahead of him. Given the smaller pool
of great "small WR" prospects in 2011, I
couldn't argue too much with Torrey Smith
as the #1 WR overall in 2011...I just wouldn't
100% endorse it (if I were an NFL team/GM) given
how readily available "small WRs" are in general
via draft or free agency.
Torrey Smith will not last past the
2nd Round of the 2011 NFL Draft, and I think he
has a chance at the late 1st Round. Typically,
"smarter" teams draft late in each round...and
they are usually not ones to waste high picks on
"small WRs". However, Smith's talent and
projections could allow him to force his way
into the late 1st Round. Jeremy Maclin
was a mid-1st Round selection to a "smart" team
in 2009.
Pure speculation on where Smith will land in
the Draft, my guess would be as high as #26 to
Baltimore, maybe #33 to New England or #45 to
San Francisco.
The only thing I can see slowing down Smith
becoming a very good/great NFL WR (besides
injury) is if a team drafts him, and tries to
make him something he is not -- he is not a
prototypical overpowering "big WR" that will
take on the opposing #1 DB and will be a primary
"red-zone" target. I think that would a huge
mistake and misuse of what Smith can bring to
the table.
If you favorite NFL team lands Torrey Smith,
and you already have the "big WR" role
filled...you should get really excited.
Torrey Smith on the Houston Texans, Arizona
Cardinals, Detroit Lions, or San Diego Chargers
(as some examples) would likely have huge
instant impact in 2011 (assuming we are playing
this year).
We will project Torrey Smith's 2011
Fantasy Football production in our 2011 "Big
Board" Draft Guide. The NFL season schedules are out
and the NFL Draft is almost upon us, so
the computers are geared up to start running
analysis on projecting players and situations
for 2011 -- our
2011 Fantasy
Football Draft Guide on sale this summer
(even if you don't play Fantasy Football you
might really enjoy this work) with
400+ players evaluated statistically for the
upcoming season!
Our Fantasy
Football Draft Guide is EVER-EVOLVING
!!!! Not like a stale magazine with outdated
data by the time it arrives on newsstands, and
is obsolete when the next big injury or
personnel move is made -- we update our player
projections and commentary as often as daily
(sometimes multiple times daily if news warrants
it)...we work just like your own personal "war
room" right up to Draft Day (see home page for
clips of some of last years work) and you can
access the e-Guide "at will" with your initial
purchase.
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