*An on-going series of putting college QBs in our mathematical analysis. We don’t have all the needed data until the 2011 NFL Combine results, but we can assume some of it and we have all the game performance/statistics.

See this link for details on the College QB rating system --  Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

Taylor Potts may look like a "sleeper" QB pick on the surface. He is a prototypical QB size at 6'4, 220 pounds. Throwing for 35 TDs and 3,726 yards in his senior season. The problem with Potts, like many "head fake" QBs is NOT that he plays in a high pass attempt/spread offense. The problem is quite simple, when you look deeper at the numbers...

Texas Tech played 13 games this season, many of them against .500 (give or take) level competition. Potts had 4 "real" tests this season against more major competition -- teams with much better 2010 records and/or teams loaded with more future NFL caliber talent and higher paid coaching staffs -- Texas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Missouri. Outside of those 4 major teams, in the 9 other games, Potts was amazing with 30 TDs and 6 INTs. However, when you look at Potts performance versus the 4 major tests he had, you see a much different QB. Potts statistical snapshot against Texas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Missouri:

• 5 Passing TD and 4 INTs
• 1.25 Passing TDs per game
• 177 yards passing per game (keep in mind, this is a high pass attempt offense)
• highest passing game -- 226 yards against Oklahoma State, on 43 Passing Attempts
• over 70% Completion Percentage against the weaker teams, but 60.6% in these 4 big tests

Other High Pass Attempt QBs

Graham Harrell by comparison, in his 5 "major" test games in his final season at Texas Tech, had 17 Passing TDs and 3 INTs. Harrell was a much better passing QB (statistically) in our system than Potts. Harrell has caught on around the fringe of the NFL so far, and it is too soon to tell if Harrell will ever get a chance to start. The problem with Harrell as a translation to the NFL was not so much his passing metrics, but his 6'1 size.

Colt Brennan, the high flying/record-setting Hawaii QB, had 3 "major" tests in his final season -- throwing for 7 TDs and 6 INTs. In a 4th "tougher" game (they didn't have a great schedule) against (5-7) San Jose State, Brennan had 4 TDs and 4 INTs. When the competition was more worthy, Brennan was a turnover machine.

It is what you start to see in Blaine Gabbert, another QB from a high-flying, spread offense with great stats (and the "look"). The problem is, Gabbert really wasn't an elite college QB against his tougher competition. Obviously, he was a fine college QB overall, but we are evaluating his translation to the NFL, millions of dollars to be spent, and an NFL franchise's next 3-5 years tied up in his hands.

In Gabbert's 4 toughest tests (according to me), against San Diego State (9 wins), Miami, Ohio (10 wins), Oklahoma (12 wins), and Nebraska (10 wins), he had the following stats:

• 4 TDs and 4 INTs, the ratio is bad and then just 4 TDs in 4 games throwing almost 40 times a game is a major, major red-flag that I cannot believe everyone is not in a full panic over...but good luck Arizona Cardinals (where I think Gabbert will go as of today). The "drafters" of Matt Leinart, and signers of Derek Anderson; and actually willing to play Max Hall....are now about to "land" Gabbert.

If you point toward 9-win Texas A&M as a Gabbert tough test, I would then also add the Bowl game against 8-win Iowa. Gabbert had 3 TDs and 1 INT vs. Texas A&M, but 1 TD and 2 INTs against Iowa (in 57 Pass Attempts...1 TD in 57 attempts!!). Add up my 4 major tests, and these 2 additional tough tests and you get:

• 8 TDs and 7 INTs in 6 games, 1.5 TD passes per game with over 40 pass attempts per game.
• *Just for grins I went back to look at Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Sam Bradford's "toughest" tests -- 23 games and ZERO games with 1 or less TDs per game, all 2+ in every individual test. Gabbert had 1 or less passing TDs in 6 of his 7 toughest test/games.

OK, off Gabbert and back to Potts....

 

NFL QB that Taylor Potts most compares to statistically in our system...

Looking at QBs in our system that match Potts, the key indicators were QBs who had very low yards per completion against tougher competition -- the ultimate check-down QBs, playing it safe...but accomplishing little. The 2 QBs that had the best match were Mike Kafka and Dan LeFevour, both of whom haven't really had their shot in the NFL. The NFL QB who has the historically best match to Potts is Tim Couch.

• "Adj" means just key games/better competition -- weighted for strength of opponent (our own proprietary work, weighted for strength of opponent)

• "per 35 att" numbers are the key games, weighted for strength of opponent and then translated into an average as if every QB had an equal 35 Pass Attempts per game all the time, and thus what would each QB produce (in college) if they had 35 passes per game based on the key games their final college season. In an attempt to somewhat equalize the college performance and show you what our systems sees.

QB	Yr	College	H	W	adj Comp Pct	Adj Yds per Comp	adj Pass per TD	adj Pass Per INT	x	Yds per game 35 Att	TDs per game 35 Att	INTs per game 35 Att
Potts, Taylor	2010	Texas Tech	76.0	220	62.9%	9.1	23.7	40.3		199.3	1.5	0.9
LeFevour, Dan	2009	Central Mich	75.3	230	66.2%	9.1	26.3	49.9		211.7	1.3	0.7
Kafka, Mike	2009	Northwestern	75.1	225	63.4%	9.0	27.3	35.5		200.0	1.3	1.0

 

Taylor Potts Overall Score = 0.548  *See original work and scoring tables from the following link -- Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

 

2011 NFL DRAFT PROJECTION:

Taylor Potts will probably be drafted due to his good NFL size, but likely it will not be until a 6th-7th Round at the best. Potentially an undrafted Free Agent, and not a QB I would get excited about as a "sleeper" if my favorite team picked him up.

 

 

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