*An on-going series of
putting college QBs in our mathematical
analysis. We don’t have all the needed data
until the 2011 NFL Combine results are
completely in (including most Wonderlic scores
leaked), but we can assume (neutral) some of it
and we have all the game performance/statistics.
See this link for details
on the College QB rating system --
Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a
College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical
Formula
If you've followed our on-going series on the
statistical analysis of the 2011 NFL Draft QB
prospects, you would find that our analysis does
not favor the "running QB".
When I was younger, I kinda preferred the
attractiveness and allure of the highly mobile
QB. "He can throw the ball, and he can run
when needed, a dual-threat", was my
"fan" thought process. Maybe it was more my
Madden video game thought process from my
youth (or more like "Tecmo Bowl", to show my
age), 3rd Down and 9 -- no problema!...all I
needed to do on my video game was roll out and
scamper for 15 yards with Randall Cunningham
or whomever. The problem with that strategy is
that NFL QBs do not drop back 15 yards to buy
time for receivers to get open, like in the
video games. NFL teams don't rely upon the QBs
running ability to bail them out of 3rd & long,
time and time again.
In the NFL, mobile QBs have great highlights,
so they seem attractive...and all the excitement
makes them become highly-overvalued to most fans
and some NFL teams, like a hyped up "hot
internet stock". The logic seems smart -- "a
QB who can pass and run, is better than a QB who
can just pass". The problem is; it doesn't
translate. I loved the concept of the dual
threat QB, until I studied it, looked at the
numbers and realized -- it doesn't really lead
to a successful business model/elite NFL team
success.
A highly mobile QB has only truly excelled
once in the more modern NFL -- and that was
Steve Young. The problem with comparing
every fast 40-yard dash QB prospect to Steve
Young is -- that Young was also a brilliant
passer as well as a great runner. 71.3%
Completion Percentage in 1983 for BYU, when 70%+
Completion Percentage was unheard of. Young also
had 33 passing TDs in 11 games his final year at
BYU. Steve Young is a once-in-a-lifetime
commodity that has caused a bunch of NFL GMs and
Head Coaches to be fired, as they all search (in
vain) for the "next Steve Young", or they
are sucked in by the allure of the
"dual-threat". It is just unreasonable (and has
never worked) to try to manufacture Steve Young
2.0 out of a Vince Young, Pat White,
Seneca Wallace, or even Michael or
Marcus Vick (just to name a few).
Ahh, Michael Vick. I wish more people
would compare Jake Locker, Colin
Kaepernick, and Tyrod Taylor to Steve
Young. At least Steve Young was an elite passing
QB, as well a mobile one. A few have brushed off
my assertions about the NFL failure with the
"mobile" QB with the, "Yeah, but what about
Michael Vick? What if (fill in the
blank) is the next Vick"? To steal from
the current hot word of the day -- Michael
Vick as an elite QB, as the one QB to hold
up as the poster child for successful mobile
QB's who were elite passers..."really"?
Before 2010, Michael Vick's career
analysis (2001-2009):
- 53.7% Completion Percentage, with a high
of 56.4% in any season
- 72-52 record as a starter, 2-2 in the
playoffs, 1 Super Bowl appearance
- Approx 75.0 passer rating. *for
perspective, a 75.0 Passer Rating would have
been 28th best overall in 2010
Vick is not a "bust" QB per say, it's just
that he never was close to an elite NFL QB. Just
a walking highlight reel and video game
superstar.
Is Michael Vick an amazing physical
talent?, absolutely. However, do you want your
"franchise" QB to wait 8 seasons before having 1
truly good season? Do you want your "franchise"
QB constantly putting himself into harm's
way...and losing him 1-2-3+ games a year to
injury?
This all comes around to the fastest 40-yard
dash QB of 2011 -- Tyrod Taylor, Virginia
Tech.
Tyrod Taylor's highs and
lows of 2010:
Taylor had a better season, from a passing
perspective, than I would have suspected. I only
remember watching Virginia Tech get beat by D-II
James Madison, as well as watching him struggle
against Stanford in their Bowl Game. I did not
have a good impression of Taylor from my 2
visual introductions, which isn't fair to
Taylor. In-between the James Madison and
Stanford games, Taylor had an excellent 20
Passing TDs and only 3 INTs in an 11 straight
game win streak.
As the season wore on, Taylor seemed to wear
down as well. Either Taylor wore down, or the
competition got tougher (4 of last 5 games
against Bowl teams), or both. In Taylor's last 5
games of 2010, his numbers in that stretch were
the worst stretch of his 2010 season:
- 54.0% Completion Percentage
- did have a nice 7 TD to 1 INT ratio
- known for his running ability, yet he
had 52 carries (10.2 per game) for 75 yards
rushing (7.5 yards per game) the last 5
games of 2010
Taylor had some nice moments and good
stretches, but not anything sustainable to
project him ahead as a future good/elite NFL QB.
Other Red-Flags
Taylor had decent passing metrics in
stretches. But looking toward the NFL, based on
his physical measureables -- standing under 6'1
is not a great attribute for an NFL QB, and
hasn't been a great indicator for passing
success at the "next level". The shorter height
is another item that Taylor has in common with
Michael Vick....which also has a lot in
common with a lot QBs who never made
successfully in the NFL.
Taylor also has that pesky low pass attempt
metric that seems to be rising in importance in
my continued studies. A very low 23.3 pass
attempts per game in the key/tougher games we
looked at. Future NFL elite QBs pushed more
toward 28-30+ per game. The lower pass attempt
QBs (historically) continue to rack up as
typically the bigger running QBs -- which may
soften college opponents pass defenses for some
inflated passing metrics. It's a developing
trend in our mathematical study -- the trend
being the low pass attempt per game QBs are not
translating well to the NFL. It's another major
"watch out" item for Cam Newton, like
Tim Tebow and Vince Young...awesome
college seasons, low passing attempts, highly
mobile = trouble in the NFL.
NFL QB
that Tyrod Taylor most compares to statistically
in our system...
The two most likely
statistical performance and physical stature
matches in our system were Drew Olsen and
Tavaris Jackson. Both of those QB matches
were smaller (6'2 or less) with decent passing
metrics, but failed at the NFL level. The main
difference between them and Taylor is a much
more mobile QB.
Michael Vick wasn't
much of a match, as Taylor had much better
passing metrics his final college season than
Michael Vick. Physically, Taylor is Michael
Vick-like...both smaller, very fast QB's
(although no QB has ever measured as close to as
fast as Vick).
-
"Adj" means just key
games/better competition -- weighted for
strength of opponent (our own proprietary
work, weighted for strength of opponent)
-
"per 35 att" numbers
are the key games, weighted for strength of
opponent and then translated into an average
as if every QB had an equal 35 Pass Attempts
per game all the time, and thus what would
each QB produce (in college) if they had 35 passes per
game based on the key games their final
college season. In an attempt to somewhat
equalize the college performance and show
you what our systems sees.
|
QB |
Yr |
College |
H |
W |
adj Comp Pct |
Adj Yds per Comp |
adj Pass per TD |
adj Pass Per INT |
x |
Yds per game 35 Att |
TDs per game 35 Att |
INTs per game 35 Att |
|
Taylor, Tyrod |
2010 |
Virginia Tech |
72.8 |
216 |
69.0% |
13.3 |
13.8 |
49.2 |
|
278.3 |
2.5 |
0.7 |
|
Olson, Drew |
2005 |
UCLA |
73.6 |
222 |
63.8% |
13.5 |
14.1 |
80.6 |
|
256.1 |
2.5 |
0.4 |
|
Jackson, Tavaris |
2005 |
Alabama State |
74.0 |
227 |
66.9% |
13.6 |
11.4 |
47.1 |
|
271.0 |
3.1 |
0.7 |
Tyrod Taylor Overall Score =
0.593
*See original work
and scoring tables from the following link
--
Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a
College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical
Formula
Taylor is a much better QB
than most would think. The lasting impression of
the Stanford game (16-31, 222 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT,
16 carries for 22 rushing yards) will not help
his public perception. It's easy to dismiss
Taylor as a runner who can't pass at all. Taylor
has decent passer performance metrics; he just
doesn't have the physical characteristics of the
future NFL elite QBs...especially with a
reliance on high run attempts, and lower pass
attempts. Taylor will be, and should be drafted.
His 4.47 speed is just the tip of the iceberg on
how fast Taylor really is. Taylor has the kind
of speed and agility metrics, as well as big
hands, which will project him as a potential
great slot type WR.
This is no joke -- Taylor's
physical characteristics run at the upper end of
the talented WRs of the day. As a QB, he is
maybe a 5-7th Round selection (or should be, to
me). As a WR, he might be a 2-4th Round pick. I
don't know if Taylor can catch in a game
setting, but just based on physical
characteristics and physical measureables -- he
may be one of the most intriguing WRs out there
(again, if he can catch).
Tyrod
Taylor vs. Julio Jones
When I ran Tyrod Taylor's
physical characteristics in our system, there
were only a few WRs that could "measure up" at
the upper end of many speed/agility metrics.
Those characteristics we looked at were:
-
Hand Size
-
40-Yard Dash
-
20-Yard Dash
-
10-Yard Dash
-
Agility metrics
-
Vertical Jump
Taylor is well above
average in all of the physical measureables,
closer to "great" actually. After running the
system for NFL matches, the current WRs in our
system listed as a close physical measureable
match:
The most likely matches of
all of the WRs listed above, based on the
physical measureables across the board is
Hakeem Nicks and the potential #1 WR off the
board in 2011 -- Julio Jones. Jones is 2
inches taller with a little longer arms, but
after that their speed and agility metrics are
very similar...and at an elite level
historically.
Again, I don't know if
Taylor can catch a pass against real
defenses...but I would sure want to find out
with his measureables.
Tyrod Taylor is not
the next Michael Vick in my opinion, but
he may be a very good NFL WR...which suddenly
makes him a very interesting 2011 Draft
prospect. If you see a "smart" NFL team (NE,
PHI, SD, GB, PIT, etc) select Taylor a little
earlier than expected, don't get too excited
about thinking that they see him as an elite NFL
QB -- it's designed to work him as a possible
WR/returner...a la Julian Edelman a
couple years ago, only Taylor's a little bigger
version of Edelman.
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