It has been a wild ride that I've been on with
Ricky Stanzi in 2011. Many of you have followed
the story for months, some that are new may need a quick
re-cap:
-
In February 2011, for the first time
ever we published our work
(admittedly still in progress) on a mathematical system to
try to predict/find future "elite" NFL QBs,
based on collection historical college performance data
and physical measurables.
-
A QB we had not really heard much about,
Ricky Stanzi, graded out as a
possible future NFL elite QB in our
system...after triple checking that we did
input the data right -- we investigated
Stanzi further, and the more we dug into
it...the more we believed
-
Because of the great interest in the
Stanzi story nationally, I had theorized that Ricky
Stanzi may have already caught the
attention of the "smarter" personnel teams
in the NFL (who had possible QB desires now
or soon to be) --
namely NE, IND, PHI, KC with SF, CLE, MIA as
potential draft scenarios. My theory
involved the potential for a late developing
"awareness" of Stanzi and a possible late
flurry of draft media attention; and that he
could be chased after by several teams up
into the late 2nd Round and possible early
1st Round (despite being projected as a
3rd-4th Round pick).
At the time (Feb 2011) that we published our
detailed reports on each of the key 2011 QB
prospects (all available on our home page), our
ratings system looked like we had taken the
current conventional wisdom and flipped upside
down. Our top-3 computer rated QBs were Stanzi,
Christian Ponder (with an injury asterisk) and
Andy Dalton....on top of that, any 2011
QB besides those 3, our computer system labeled
as more probable busts (all of them -- Cam
Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker
etc). At the time (Feb 2011), the Stanzi,
Ponder, Dalton lofty projections were a shock to
many and sometimes dismissed as a "howling in
the wind" by some Fantasy Football
lunatic...then suddenly things changed in April
2011.
Andy Dalton caught media fire and went
from a projected 2nd-4th Round draft pick to a
potential 1st Round pick (wound up #35).
Christian Ponder went from a 2nd-3rd Round
projected QB, to possible 1st Round (and then
went #12 overall). What was once seen as a mix
of intriguing and/or foolish QB Draft scouting
reports we published in February 2011...were now
seen as more visionary and in demand from other
reporting agencies.
All the new found attention was great, except
for one "fly in the ointment" that occurred over
the 3-day NFL Draft period -- the centerpiece of
our 2011 QB theory, the rise of Ricky Stanzi
to a potential 1st or 2nd Round draft
pick...well, it didn't happen.
As the NFL Draft unfolded, I thought surely
he would be grabbed in the 3rd Round with New
England, which the Patriots were my almost
assured landing place in my mind...my reasoning
and conspiracy theory links were sound(?), and it
was almost too perfect...and then the Pats did
take a QB in the 3rd Round, Ryan Mallett.
I knew the Colts or Browns could pick me up on
this theory in the 3rd Round...nope.
I thought
there is no way he could slide past the 4th
Round...yep, I was wrong again. On Draft Day-3,
at a certain point Sunday afternoon I was just
hoping, "please, at least get drafted".
Then to my shock/excitement/relief -- the
Kansas City Chiefs ended my pain (and I'm sure
Rick's too) and selected Stanzi at pick #135 an
early 5th Round selection. After the
shock/excitement/relief wore off I thought, "why
would the Chiefs make this pick with Matt
Cassel already entrenched there?"...and
that's where this next phase of the Ricky
Stanzi story begins.
Why would the Kansas
City Chiefs select Ricky Stanzi?...and how Clark
Griswold fits into all this
"Why would the Kansas City Chiefs select
Ricky Stanzi?", is a great question.
The Chiefs theoretically do not need a QB, they
have (soon to be 29 year old) Matt Cassel
and his long-term contract coming off his best
year as a pro...why draft Stanzi? Let's get the
tin foil hats out and follow this never ending
Tom Brady and Ricky Stanzi
parallel universe to find a potential
answer/linkage to the question, "Why would
the Chiefs select Ricky Stanzi"?
We were not the only ones to point out the
similarities of Ricky Stanzi and Tom
Brady, we were just more early to say
it...and our declaration was based on his
college performance metrics, physical
similarities and similar critiques...as well as
his QB coach (Tom Martinez) the same as Brady's.
Our declaration was not that he kinda looked
like Brady (in the doppelganger sense), but that
he (potentially) was actually the next Tom
Brady...for real, as in on-the-field; and we
used statistical theory to back it up.
For a long time I felt like I was the only
person outside of Iowa saying "Stanzi could
be elite" with a passion. Many new friends
from Iowa were with me, and my own friends and
family were hopeful/just being supportive as
well...outside of that, eerie silence among the
draft media. Mike Tirico brought up to
Bill Parcells, on Parcells ESPN Draft
special, that Dalton and Stanzi were the biggest
fits for his "QB rules"...when Tirico said that
-- my world went into super slow motion, I waited
in major anticipation for the NFL "god" to utter
those magic words I had been waiting for...and
all I got from Parcells was "yeah, but Dalton
has height issues". What the...? A 2011
QB prospect (Stanzi, who is much taller than
Dalton) fits most all your major draft criteria
for taking a QB...and you have your own draft
special and you don't even acknowledge it as
something "to keep an eye on". Ricky
Stanzi might have moved into the 2nd or 3rd
Round had Parcells uttered the words, but he
didn't.
Heading into Round-1 of the Draft, I was
nervously hopeful...and a little cocky. I had
seen our work on Dalton and Ponder play out
almost on cue, yet mostly silence on Stanzi...I
just figured teams were being coy (they were
really, really coy ultimately). I was ready with
my popcorn Thursday night, blogging away as the
picks rolled in. The Stanzi work had drawn such
attention for 2 months that even my wife and
kids, who know nothing about football, were
asking me every 10-20 minutes if Ricky Stanzi
had been drafted yet. I was ready for this
amazing draft day prophecy to come true.
After Thursday and Friday, and no Stanzi
selection after 3 Rounds -- I felt like Clark
Griswold in "Christmas Vacation". If you
remember the scene where he takes an entire day
to put (literally) a million Christmas tree
lights on his house, then he drags his entire
family out into the cold night to witness the
triumphant plug-in of the lights and the
subsequent massive holiday illumination. He asks
for a drum-roll, then sings loudly a line from
"Joy to the World" and proudly jams the light
sockets together and...nothing, not a single
light is lit. Clark Griswold keeps
popping the sockets in and out, looks curiously
at the situation, receives insults and advice
from his in-laws and kids...and one-by-one they
all go back in the house, eventually Clark
Griswold is standing alone, staring numbly
at the un-illuminated house. Sunday after the
4th Round of the draft, I sat numbly staring at
Mel Kiper Jr with the same look on my
face. Had Cousin Eddie actually knocked
on my door at that moment, it wouldn't have
shocked me in the least bit.
Then Ricky Stanzi is finally drafted
moments into the 5th Round, and I am relieved
and still numb...somewhat thinking all was lost,
thinking maybe our system was way wrong and
maybe the formula needs to be majorly tweaked
(or thrown out). Just when all hope seemed lost,
Clark Griswold's wife innocently flips a
switch in the garage and the entire house lights
up like the 4th of July and Clark is standing
amazed, marveling at his hard work come to
glorious fruition. Similarly, I had an
illuminated epiphany as well..."Why would the
Kansas City Chiefs select Ricky Stanzi, they
don't seemingly need a QB", then it
hit me, "why wouldn't they"? Let's
connect some more dots on that thought process:
-
The Kansas City Chiefs football
operations are led GM Scott Pioli,
since the 2009 season
-
Scott Pioli was the personnel
director/General Manager of the New England
Patriots from 2000-2008, winning the Super
Bowl 3-times and generally the Patriots are
spoken of as a the greatest personnel
management team of the decade, led by Pioli
and Belichick
-
Scott Pioli drafted 5 QBs in his
8 years in New England. Never selecting a QB
earlier than the 3rd Round (Kevin
O'Connell/2008). Of the 5 QBs Pioli selected
in his New England tenor, he will definitely
be most known for his selection of Tom
Brady in the 6th Round in 2000. He
should also be famous (but doesn't get near
the credit) for drafting current Kansas City
QB Matt Cassel in the 7th Round in
2005 ...when Cassel had never even started
one game at QB in college at USC, a
perpetual backup.
-
Pioli has now selected his 6th QB in his
last 11 years of drafting, (to me) taking
the potential next Tom Brady in the
form of Ricky Stanzi. Who is more
appropriate to make the pick of Stanzi...and
who may know better about late-round,
underappreciated QBs then Scott Pioli?
Scott Pioli wasn't the only one who
was high on Ricky Stanzi, if you were
watching closely on ESPN (between Jon Gruden's
single handed takeover of the Draft Day
analysis on day 1 and 2) to their draft
coverage...a lone voice was crying out -- Mel
Kiper mentioned it more than twice during
the draft, and had been alluding to it for the
last few weeks -- and I hope I am not putting
words in his mouth, but essentially he has said
several variations of -- "we may look back on
this draft and realize the Ricky Stanzi
may have been the best QB in the draft".
Me, Mel Kiper Jr and Scott Pioli
(and a lot of Iowa fans) against the world --
bring it on!
Look, this whole Stanzi experience has been
fun, but I realize this is anything but a "sure
thing" and I am not saying that Stanzi is a no
doubt future NFL elite...I would be crazy to do
so. I have said all along, we are aiming to
develop (and would only report results/success)
if we had something that gave us a "gambler's
edge"...a 70%+ predictability in our favor, in a
typically 50/50 process. Which means 30% or less
of the time, the "coin flip" is not going our way.
Ricky Stanzi being drafted in the 5th
Round, is going to have to overcome a monstrous
recent trend that late round selected QBs are
not a hot bed of undiscovered "gold" for NFL
QBs; most late round drafted QBs never even see
the field...ever.
-
23 QBs have been taken in the 5th Round
since 2000, and A.J. Feely is the
best pro to come out of the group...yikes
-
28 QBs have been taken in the 6th Round
since 2000, and (of course) Tom Brady
is a legendary pick, Marc Bulger is a
very good selection as well...but since
2001, nothing in terms of a plausible NFL
QB.
-
25 QBs have been taken in the 7th Round
since 2000, and the best QB is Matt
Cassel and then not much outside of
Ryan Fitzpatrick
76 QBs taken in Rounds 5-7 in a decade, and
about 4 real (varying) success stories total
(maybe). The good news for Ricky Stanzi
is that 50% of the 4 late round success story
QBs in the last decade were drafted by Scott
Pioli.
The KC outlook for Ricky
Stanzi
I had early on predicted that the Patriots or
Colts would potentially get into a race to
select Stanzi in the late 1st or 2nd Round, in
an effort to develop the heir apparent to their
aging elite QBs. Missed that call by a mile, but
it is probably great news that it did not happen
that way for Stanzi. With either team (NE or
IND) you are looking at a 3-4 year waiting
process, and who knows how long both Brady and
Manning can/will go on...and no matter how long
it goes on, who wants to be the first
replacement for Tom Brady or Peyton
Manning? In NE or IND, there is seemingly no
clear path to a timely starting job, and a ton
of pressure when/if tapped...maybe not the best
scene for a QB who wants to play sooner rather
than later.
I had also wondered if West Coast style
philosophy/QB in need type teams, such as the
Browns and 49ers, may snatch Stanzi up as a
shock pick (like the Vikes with Ponder)...no go
there either. However, with Cleveland or San
Fran, there would be pressure to take over
weaker teams right away; which may not be good
either for a young QB. Many have said it in the
past few weeks of the draft process, most
notably Bill Parcells in his Draft
special, that it may be best for a QB to sit for
a 1-2 years and develop with no pressure.
The Kansas City Chiefs are led by (a few days
shy of) 29 year old Matt Cassel. Cassel
has a contract that runs through 2014. Cassel
has performed decent with KC in his 2 seasons.
In 2009, Cassel struggled with injuries and had
a 16-16 TD-INT ratio. In 2010, he led the Chiefs
to the playoffs with 27-7 TD-INT ratio. 2010
looks like a great season overall for Cassel,
but 3 things I would like to point out that may
lend itself to KC/Pioli wanting to hedge his
bets on Cassel:
- In the past 2 seasons as the Chiefs
starting QB, Cassel has not completed over
60% of his passes in either season
-
The 2010 season is statistically great
on the surface, but consider that Cassel
played just 3 games all year against teams
with a winning record (SD, IND and the
playoffs with BAL). In those 3 games, Cassel
was 35 of 69 completions (50.7%) which is
also just 11.7 completed passes per game. He
also had just 294 yards passing (98.0 per
game) and just 1 TD with 3 INTs. Not exactly
stellar numbers as the competition level was
raised. *In 2011, the Chiefs face 8 teams
who had winning records in 2010 -- including
a late season stretch of (in a row) at NE,
PIT, at CHI, at NY, GB. The 2011 Chiefs are
not going to the playoffs again with this
schedule, and Cassel may get rocked
somewhere in that stretch...the Cassel
"shine" may likely lose its luster in 2011.
-
Matt Cassel has been apt to run
the ball more often, 4th most rushing
attempts among QBs in 2009 and then a lower
13th most rushing attempts among QBs in
2010. More mobile/running QBs tend be at a
more injury risk, another reason to have a
"plan B" ready to go. Especially with that
Week 11-15 gauntlet coming up in 2011.
Ricky Stanzi may see action in
Week-12, 13, 14 or 15 of 2011, or Ricky
Stanzi may never see the field until
2013...or Ricky Stanzi may never see the
field ever, who knows? We will be following with
great interest. All I would like to advance is,
statistically speaking -- Ricky Stanzi is
a late Round NFL "sleeper" QB to keep an eye on.
Take it from Mel Kiper Jr or Scott
Pioli...or me.
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