Life has been interesting since we first
published statistical research reports on why
Ricky Stanzi may be the #1 QB in the 2011
NFL Draft. A few people are thinking we are
nuts, and that's cool. A few people are thinking
that I might be Ricky Stanzi's cousin or best
friend, which would be cool to be the relative
or part of the posse' of a future
millionaire...but sadly no. Most of our readers,
and many new ones, have been intrigued on our
rationale on why we feel that Ricky Stanzi is the top
QB of the 2011 NFL Draft class. See our
original work for more background --
NFL Draft Picks 2011 - Ricky Stanzi the Best QB
in the 2011 NFL Draft? - Fantasy Football 2011
*Note that Mel Kiper now may be
getting on board with this Stanzi idea too,
based on comments as of late. Many "experts", 1
by 1, are now saying Stanzi may be the best QB
in the 2011 NFL Draft when we look back in a few
years, but he is a 3rd-4th Round pick still in
their mind. So #1 = I'm not as crazy as you
might have thought 2 months ago, and #2 =
Will these "experts" please stop hedging their
bets! They have (potentially) stumbled onto a
major story and are hitting their brakes right
at the finish line. Saying Stanzi has 1st Round
talent and yet projecting him as a 3rd Round
Pick is like having a blackjack at the casino
and then taking the house insurance to protect
your payout...they are playing it safe to claim
victory no matter how the reality plays out on
Draft-Day. If the media starts thinking Stanzi
may be the best talent (long term) among the
QBs...what do you think the NFL teams think
already? Actually the media rarely thinks
anything on its own, likely the story from
private meetings etc is starting to leak from
inside sources. NFL teams (especially smart
ones) aren't going to sit back on the best QB
available in the draft and wait until the 3rd
Round to snatch him because that's what a media
commentator says. Actually, the "smart" NFL
teams want the media to think that...they are
desperate for them to think it and say it to
help them in this "poker game".
The question that I get the most from our
readers about Ricky Stanzi
now is -- "where do you think Stanzi will be
drafted" and/or "do you really think he
could be a 1st Round QB"? I typically stay
in the realm of statistical analysis, but the
Stanzi NFL Draft questions to my inbox have been many
-- so I thought I would put together an
investigation on where Stanzi might be taken. There is an interesting business dynamic
story here as well, a
dynamic that has prompted many to ask of me -- "why
is everyone missing the story on Stanzi"?
So here goes on "connecting all those dots"...
Perhaps we should flip the pages of history
back to 2007 to find the answer to the question,
"why is everyone missing this Stanzi story".
I could have concocted my own theories (which I
have), but then I remembered the 2007 NFL Draft
and I didn't need to design a new theory...I
just needed to report out on a very similar; and
actual recent NFL Draft event in 2007.
As you read on, please indulge me the
following labels -- Teams that I refer to as
"smart" teams, are the traditionally smart
personnel teams of the past decade (NE, IND,
PHI, SD, GB, PIT, etc). Not infallible teams,
but definitely proven to be "smarter" and
typically one-step ahead of everyone else.
"Smart" teams rarely pick early in a draft and
usually are trying to trade backwards in the NFL
Draft. Teams that I refer to as "dumb"
teams, are traditionally highly questionable
personnel decision making teams, often drafting
early (due to poor record), taking WRs too early
in the Draft; and often trading up to make picks
(trading with "smart" teams who are moving
back). No offense to your favorite team if I
call them "dumb" and I do not want to be "mean"
or say it flippantly, but the NFL is a big
business and there are some incredibly well run
organizations as well as absolutely awful run
organizations -- as is true of all industries,
the NFL is no exception. "Dumb" NFL teams of the
past decade are teams such as OAK, CINN, DET,
CLE, WASH, etc. Their record speaks for itself
the past 10+ years. *"Dumb" teams can turn
their fortunes around at any time, but have
definitely not shown an ability to do so in the
last decade -- i.e. Cleveland under Mike
Holmgren may take a turn upward now, too
soon to tell.
2007 NFL Draft rewind --
a review of
QBs selected
Rewind the tape to 2007, JaMarcus Russell
was most everyone's #1 QB overall; and if he
wasn't -- Brady Quinn was. As we know,
JaMarcus Russell winds up with Oakland (big
shock). The Cleveland Browns gave up a future
1st Round pick plus the 2007 #36 pick (to
Dallas, later Dallas flipped to Philly) to grab
Brady Quinn. Every team has "whiffed" on an
early draft pick at some point, but it seems
like Cleveland and Oakland have made more than
their fair share this decade.
To everyone's "shock and horror" the
Philadelphia Eagles broke from conventional
media wisdom and made maneuvers (with Dallas,
who had just got the picks from Cleveland to get
Quinn) to select Kevin Kolb with the 36th
pick.
At the time, Kolb was rated as the #6
overall QB in the Draft. "Why would they do
that, they already have Donovan McNabb!",
the people shouted. "Smart" teams are smart.
"Smart" teams know when they see value and they
plan ahead; and they know the potential next
great NFL QBs ahead of most of the NFL teams
(and Draft Gurus)...and they are not afraid to
"reach" early for a possible elite QB before
other "smart" teams do. "Smart" teams know they
are so smart at the art of the NFL Draft...and
they know that there will be plenty of opportunities to find
good players at other positions as the draft
unfolds. "Dumb" teams rush headfirst into the
early picks getting the media-hyped players,
paying them too much payroll and ruining their
business for years. "Smart" teams don't operate
the way "dumb" teams do. The "smart" teams play
"Draft Poker" way better than the other
teams; and they know it.
You may think, "well what has Kevin
Kolb ever done"? Obviously, a bizarre
situation for Kolb this season, bad in one
quarter of the
opening game, then good/great in Weeks 4-7...but
ultimately took a backseat to Michael Vick.
Whatever you may think of Kolb -- review the
current value of the other 2007 Top-6 drafted
QB's:
- JaMarcus Russell (#1 overall), released
by Oakland
- Brady Quinn (#22 overall), traded away
and current 3rd string QB for Denver
- John Beck (#40 overall), released by
Miami, traded by Baltimore to Washington for
Doug Dutch (who can forget that trade?)
- Drew Stanton (#43), 2nd or 3rd string
for Detroit
- Trent Edwards (#92), released and now
2nd or 3rd string for Jacksonville
What has Kevin Kolb done? Kolb was
good enough for Philly to pay a ton of money to
him and then trade Donovan McNabb away.
Kolb must have done something to warrant teams
in 2011 to want to trade top draft picks for him
currently. Kolb is the only 2007 QB that has any
value to the NFL 4 years later. *For the
record, Kevin Kolb was our #1 rated QB that year
and scored in the elite class in our
system...and personally I think he will be an
elite NFL QB. See more detail on that at
NFL Draft Picks 2011 - Projecting a College QB -
Fantasy Football 2011
Ricky Stanzi is potentially the
Kevin Kolb story of 2011. Stanzi, like Kolb
was, is a current media #6-7 QB overall for the
Draft. Like the Kolb situation of 2007 (Philly
making a trade to move up to get him much
earlier than experts expected), the "smart"
teams are potentially going to have a feeding
frenzy in the early 2nd Round or late 1st Round
to out-do each other in trying to secure Stanzi
(if I'm right about Stanzi).
What Tom Brady and
Peyton Manning have to do with all of this...
- Joe Montana last played QB in the NFL at
age 38
- John Elway last played QB in the NFL at
age 38
- Dan Marino last played QB in the NFL at
age 38
Peyton Manning will be 35.5 years old
to start the 2011 season, and Tom Brady
will be 34. Theoretically, they have 3-4 years
of football left; and maybe 2-3 good/great
seasons left.
A "smart" team/smart business prepares and
plans ahead. 2011 or 2012 is the time for the
Patriots and Colts to make their QB "succession
plans". A media and scout consensus/highly
probable elite QB such as
Andrew Luck is not likely going to be available to
Indy or New England in 2012. Potentially the
Colts and Pats best window of opportunity is
2011, taking advantage of the silly hype around the
seriously flawed QBs (according to me) such as
Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert, and
let a Ricky Stanzi (or possibly an
Andy Dalton) fall to them in the 2nd Round.
The problem with that theory is -- I think the
list of teams thinking that same, "Kevin Kolb
circa 2007" thought process is growing; and
may force Stanzi (like Kolb) and/or Dalton to
the very early 2nd Round...or even late 1st
Round -- way ahead of the "experts" projections.
Do you think that is improbable? Why do you
think that? Because, the media isn't talking
about Ricky Stanzi...like they didn't
talk about Kevin Kolb? The "smart" teams
are loving the focus on Newton, Locker,
Gabbert, Mallett, Kaepernick. I think the
"smart" teams do all they can to push that
story/hype along as well (*see NE bluffing
DEN into taking Tim Tebow 1st Round 2010).
Here is my 2 cents take on how I see the
teams in play for Stanzi, and the connect-a-dots
theory on why it might be possible:
#1 Most Likely
Destination -- New England Patriots
- New England was the
2nd
team to schedule a private meeting with
Stanzi (we know how dumb Belichick is)
- Kirk Ferentz, Iowa Head Coach of
Ricky Stanzi...and former NFL Assistant with
Bill Belichick in Cleveland. Think
Ferentz may have shared some info on Stanzi
with Belichick? Enough info shared to
schedule a private meeting, although I'm
sure the Pats were on it before me or anyone
else.
- Ricky Stanzi is currently working with
Tom Brady's QB coach and QB guru --
Tom Martinez.
- NE has picks #17, #28, and #33...all a
great range to "reach" for Stanzi (the media
will say "reach", like on Kolb)
- There needs to be an heir apparent to
Tom Brady soon
# 2 Most Likely
Destination -- San Francisco 49ers
- San Fran needs/wants a QB,
and
have been linked more and more to Stanzi
- Jim Harbaugh, the new Head Coach
and a possible QB guru (Andrew Luck?) as
well -- Stanzi may fit Harbaugh's style
perfectly
- Jim Harbaugh reportedly was at the recent
Iowa Pro-Day to scout and meet with Stanzi
- One of Jim Harbaugh's agents in the
negotiations of leaving Stanford for San
Fran, was long time football agent --
Jack Bechta. Jack Bechta is also,
coincidentally, Ricky Stanzi's agent.
- San Fran has a league high 12 picks,
including #7 and # 35...if San Fran trades
down with #7 or up from #35 -- it may be part of a Stanzi
play if they feel Stanzi at #35 will be jumped by New
England at #33
# 3 Most Likely
Destination -- Indianapolis Colts
- There needs to be an heir apparent to
Peyton Manning, and it's not Curtis
Painter
- The Colts have had strong ties, and success,
with Iowa top prospects (Bob Sanders, Dallas
Clark, and Pat Angerer)
- Bill Polian has been a genius in
the NFL Draft,
so I
just assume he will be kicking the
tires on Stanzi if Belichick is too...then
1+1 = "smart" teams are circling the wagons.
If Polian and Belichick get on the same
QB...then I would only be more excited on
this "surprise Stanzi story" if the Kansas
City Chiefs GM (and recently former Patriots
GM) Scott Pioli was on Stanzi as
well.
# 4 Most Likely
Destination -- Kansas City Chiefs
- What do you know?, Scott Pioli
may be interested too...KC
had a private visit with Stanzi as well
- When Pioli came into the Chiefs GM job
and ultimately let Herman Edwards go,
the main coaching target Pioli was rumored
to go after for the KC job opening
was...current Iowa Head Coach, Kirk
Ferentz
- KC has picks #21 and #55, and they have
Matt Cassel...so I'm not sure they
want to be as aggressive as SF, NE or IND
# 5 Most Likely
Destination -- Cleveland Browns
- I don't believe Cleveland is sold on
Colt McCoy (for good reason, in my
opinion) as their future
- Guessing the 2011 QB who fits the style
of Mike Holmgren -- he may be looking
for a QB who is "pro-style"
offense/experienced, west-coast style
teachable, accurate/not turnover prone,
multi-year college starter, and can
handle/is used to cold weather...with bigger
than average hand size. (Stanzi is the fit
for all of the descriptions, with Gabbert
and Mallett kinda fitting some parts of it)
- Cleveland has picks #5 and #37, they
wouldn't take Stanzi at #5...but #37 is
probably about as late as he would be
available (or they can trade up a few slots
from #37)
- If you see the Philadelphia Eagles
meeting privately with Stanzi, then likely
Cleveland will be on the same vibe.
Holmgren/Reid are past connected and have
similar football philosophy...when Kevin
Kolb had an issue to start 2010, the
Browns were (reportedly) the first one on
the phones inquiring if he was available in
a trade.
# 6 Most Likely
Destination -- Philadelphia Eagles
- Andy Reid is in a very tough box,
that I don't think he wants to be in.
Michael Vick is not the long-term
answer, Kevin Kolb is. However, Reid
would be destroyed for dumping Vick for Kolb
right now. Reid can't keep Kolb happy for
another year either, and Kolb's value is
better to trade right now than let walk in a
year...and Kolb's value is much better to
trade if Reid has Stanzi in hand. If Philly
drafts Stanzi at #23, see how fast a Kolb
trade announcement is made. More likely,
Kolb is traded ahead of time (if NFL rules
allow), then the
Stanzi market will really heat up.
- Reid was the author of the Kolb Draft
"shocker" in 2007, so he doesn't care what
the media thinks of a "reach" QB draft pick
- See the last bullet point on the
Cleveland Browns note above, if Cleveland is
wanting to meet privately...then Andy Reid
likely has the same thought process as well
# 7 Most Likely
Destination -- Miami Dolphins
- Bill Parcells is gone now, but I
have it on good authority that Parcells is
a big Stanzi fan (and Stanzi fits the
Parcells QB theory/model/profile)
- Miami met with Stanzi in a private
meeting
- I just think that Miami, with their
owners "M.O." will go for a more "sexy" QB,
and they only have 1 pick in the first 2
Rounds, so I can't see them using #15
overall on Stanzi, or their fans would
revolt (for the moment). If Miami trades
back, then watch out.
The other NFL "smart" teams (SD, GB, PIT,
etc) either have a young(er) QB and/or don't
need to get in a higher-stakes bidding war with
the other "smart" teams in QB want/need. The Pats and
Colts have QB motivations for the first time in
a long time -- and you know they are looking
ahead to the future because they are smartly run
businesses.
The "dumb" NFL teams are not going to have
the guts or internal evaluations to take Stanzi
early, and if the "dumb" teams expect him to be
there in the early 2nd Round -- I think that
Pioli, and/or Polian and/or Belichick will sense
if the market on Stanzi is moving earlier and
earlier in the 2nd Round, possibly forcing the
Colts or Pats to use a late 1st Round pick on
Ricky Stanzi. The Patriots have an excess of
earlier draft picks to burn one a little early
on Stanzi.
I think Stanzi is a conventional wisdom
#45-60 overall pick in most NFL War Rooms right
now, but the connect-the-dots on Stanzi with
Belichick, and maybe Polian, and/or Harbaugh could move
Stanzi toward a #30-40 pick overall in Mock
Drafts by the time the real draft hits...and
then he could become a possible "shock" pick at
#17 by NE or a #22 by Indy, as they try to outduel each other.
...or maybe I'm crazy, and/or Ricky Stanzi's
cousin.
I'm not putting my career on the line
projecting that
Stanzi will definitely be taken in the 1st Round,
although I think he should be...and I do see a
concurrence of events taking place that I would
be willing to bet on it. At minimum, I'd like
our readers to at least consider the possibility
of Ricky Stanzi as a 1st Round Draft pick
as being plausible. At maximum, it would be my
pleasure for our computer servers to be taken
down as my email blows up when/if it happens!
If the Stanzi Draft story doesn't play out
this way, my Stanzi as a great "sleeper" pick
article is ready roll. If the Stanzi Draft story does happen this
way (or even if it doesn't), you should definitely buy our
2011 Fantasy
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