"Speed is a great asset: but it's greater when it's combined with quickness - and there's a big difference" -- Ty Cobb

Much like our WR ratings and mathematical analysis of them, we separate and judge RBs based upon what "class" they will likely be in. What makes Peyton Hillis, Brandon Jacobs and Mike Tolbert valuable in the NFL is much different than what makes Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, and Jahvid Best valuable in the NFL. Peyton Hillis is never going beat Reggie Bush in a foot race, but Hillis will get the ball more on 3rd & one and 4th & Goal.

We look at a couple physical factors or "profiles" based on various physical metrics, and make a determination on each incoming RB; and some of the decisions you may disagree with. A player may gain weight/muscle in the NFL and ultimately move them from one class/style to another...but all we can deal with is what they are at the time of moving from college to the NFL. When we see players on the edge of going wither way, we try to run them both ways and put them with their best "class". Our 2 classifications for analysis are "speed RBs" and "power RBs".

"Speed RBs" being more outside runners, short passing game, runners you want to get into space and not work as much up the middle (also prone to injury more often). "Power RBs" being more inside/off-tackle runners, not as apt to be big in the passing game...but can be.

As you see our historical RB ratings and rankings, you will notice it almost all of them are within the last 5-6 years. On RBs we try to stay in a more tight recent time range for a few reasons:

1. RBs are just not lasting that long in the NFL. Five (or more) seasons in the NFL as a frontline starter with no issues, is getting more and more rare -- whether due to injury or "job sharing"; the "elite" NFL RB is becoming a dinosaur of sorts.
2. Trying to compare modern day RBs to "old school" RBs has been tough for us on the data we look at, for a variety of reasons. Trouble finding all the data we need is one issue. Overall, it has been more predictive to keep the group logic more recent -- which causes us to have to make more "leaps of faith", trying to pattern after current NFL elite RB trends...as the trends seem to change faster among RBs within a 5 year moving/trailing period (at least within our data). Trying to stay ahead of the curve on RB

Remember to bookmark us for your Fantasy Football Draft. Our cheat sheet and draft guide will rank 400+ players. Go To our Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet and Guide page for free samples from 2010.

The NFL, in recent years, has adopted a bit of an anti-RB philosophy in the NFL Draft; and with good reason -- RBs are not holding up long term/giving a business the returns for their investment; and they also seem to be a little more readily available...often late round/undrafted RBs do just fine in the NFL. An elite QB is incredibly hard to come (in the past 5-10 years) as available later in any draft (Brady aside) or undrafted. Typically the elite QB will play for a 7+ years and some will go 10-15+ years -- a great return on investment. When a team loses their elite QB (for whatever reasons), they may not find another one for decades. On the other hand, good/great RBs seem to sprout up all over (and disappear just as quickly). For more logic on the plight of NFL RBs, look at the leading rushers (in order) from 2010:

1. Arian Foster, an undrafted free-agent. The Texans were "so confident" in Arian Foster last preseason, they jumped ahead of conventional wisdom to draft Ben Tate, while still having 1,000+ yard rusher Steve Slaton on the roster. Tate got hurt and Foster ended up as a star, and could disappear just as quickly...it has happened many times in the NFL with RBs being "one-hit" wonders.

2. Jamaal Charles, the 10th RB taken in 2008 (3rd Round) and backup to Thomas Jones in many of the early parts of 2010

3. Michael Turner, the 9th RB taken in 2004 (5th Round)

4. Chris Johnson, the 5th RB taken in 2008 (late 1st Round)

5. Maurice Jones-Drew, the 6th RB taken in 2006 (2nd Round)

6. Adrian Peterson, the 1st RB taken in 2007

7. Rashard Mendenhall, the 4th RB taken (1st Round)

8. Steven Jackson, the 1st RB taken in 2004

9. Ahmad Bradshaw, the 24th RB taken in 2007 (7th Round)

10. Ray Rice, the 7th RB taken in 2008 (2nd Round)

11. Peyton Hillis, on multiple teams and basically given away by the Broncos last year

12. Darren McFadden, first productive year in his career, the 1st RB taken in 2008

13. Cedric Benson, given up on by the Bears, 2nd life in Cincy...2nd RB taken in 2005

14. LeSean McCoy, 4th RB taken in 2009 (2nd Round)

15. Matt Forte, the 6th RB taken in 2008 (2nd Round)

16. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, undrafted 2008

17. LeGarrette Blount, undrafted 2010

18. Fred Jackson, undrafted 2003

19. LaDainian Tomlinson, 1st RB taken in 2005

20. Thomas Jones, 2nd RB taken in 2000

It's not that early selected RBs are "bad", many of the RB's listed above are 1st-2nd Round selections...it's just that RBs are available all over if you miss out on the supposed "top" RB. Besides the top RBs not having to be 1st or 2nd Round picks, top RB selections don't seem to mean much to a franchise's fortunes...which may be anecdotal, but if you wonder why the Patriots, Steelers or Colts do all they can stay away from having high draft picks -- look at the list below (also keep in mind that the high pick = high payroll as well, so when you miss" on a pick...it can be a franchise killer).

The last 10 draft's worth of teams who grabbed the #1 RB in each draft:

• 2001 = Chargers
• 2002 = Browns
• 2003 = Bills
• 2004 = Rams
• 2005 = Dolphins
• 2006 = Saints
• 2007 = Vikings
• 2008 = Raiders
• 2009 = Broncos
• 2010 = Bills

One Super Bowl appearance among all these teams in the past decade, and a win for the Saints and Reggie Bush...but I wouldn't call Reggie Bush the key to the Saints run along the way or in the actual game itself (5 carries and 4 catches in the 2009 Super Bowl). and I wouldn't call Bush an elite NFL RB by any stretch of the imagination. Bush was $8M in payroll in 2010 and expected to jump to $13.5M in 2011...looking at his career productivity, I left to think what else could be done with that $13.5M by the Saints this year...especially when Chris Ivory costs about 1% of that.

Of all those teams listed above, 1 made the playoffs this past season in 2010 (the Saints) and the group had no playoff wins in 2010. Again, this is being a little selective with info...but it is somewhat eye-opening. We cannot deny Steven Jackson in 2004, AP in 2007 and LT in 2001 as great picks...but no rings for that group, which probably says more about their franchise than their contributions as RBs...it also may say something about the relative value of a RB as a business proposition.

Due to supply and demand, RBs are kinda over-valued (to me) in every draft. If you are going to stretch for an early pick RB in the draft, I would think you would want to swing for the fences on a potential elite/once-in-generation type RB.

When there is a potential elite NFL RB, like (a few examples) Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson or LaDainian Tomlinson (all of whom are classified as "big RBs in our system) -- it is usually a combination of bigger size/frame, much better than average RB speed/agility, and college statistical productivity. RBs who stray away from that "trinity" of characteristics can still do well in the NFL, but are not maybe as transcendent. If I am looking to take a RB high in a draft (or a later steal), I want an elite set of characteristics...and that's what we set out to study. I primarily care more about analysis for Fantasy Football impact, so I am looking for stats/productivity regardless of actual NFL team impact. I want to know which RBs could make an NFL impact, even if just for one season.

Measuring "Speed RBs"

"Speed RBs" range from more "scat backs" and "3rd Down backs" like a Reggie Bush, to RB's that can go between the tackles with some power as well as bounce to the outside -- like DeAngelo Williams and Maurice Jones-Drew. The elite among this "speed" group has the more the ability to go inside and outside successfully whereas our "power RB" list is more tackle-to-tackle type runners. Elite "speed RBs" that aren't as apt to go up the middle, and had better have higher speed and agility measurements to project for success running more outside and catching swing passes out of the backfield.

Looking through RB data historically, we tried to find what things current NFL elite RBs had in common in college performance as well as measured physically. Not just elites, but what did future "bust" RBs have in common as well. We do not reveal the full details of our formulas, but we will give a general overview. The key items we looked at for "speed RBs" were:

PHYSICAL MEASUREABLES:

We noticed some repeating patterns on various physical attributes, and certain combinations of attributes...we gave the most desired attributes a higher consideration/grading. Speed and agility with this group is obviously a more desired/needed characteristic...but it has to come with some level of size/strength.

We know physical measureables can be tricky and erratic, sometimes left to NFL or school representatives accuracy. It is possible that we can get fooled, but we have to trust the data the way it is presented -- as it is all we have, as well it is just one part of the overall analysis/algorithms.

ON-FIELD PERFORMANCE:

We focus a lot on the final season of performance, with some balancing/weighting of the results on their performance  based on the strength of opponents faced...as well as strength of conference. Racking up big raw totals on D-II teams if you play for an Alabama (example), is not going to help you in our system...we throw out performance against mismatched opponents. We also look at some career performance metrics as well, as there was some correlations here for us -- unlike our QB and WR ratings that didn't give us any clues based on career totals/development.

NOT AS A RECEIVER:

We considered receiving totals very slightly. Our interest in studying the RBs was for their ability to the run the ball at the next level. Nothing we looked at statistically ever jumped out to help predict "3rd Down" RB ability per say. We see some patterns with the physical prototype of a future good 3rd Down RB, but nothing we felt comfortable looking at college performance and including as a substantial piece of the study. We have a "hands" rating that you will see below, and that is a "swipe" at trying to predict receiving ability, as well as ball security, from the college/physical metrics...but it's not anything we see a huge statistical value in grading the project-ability of the RB.

INJURY:

We really can't really quantify severity of injury, or recovery ability. That has caused a potential blind-spot, so due-diligence is needed on RBs with injury issues -- like Frank Gore, who had multiple ACL issues in college and didn't rate well in our statistical analysis. Gore did not grade well on physical measureables, and likely didn't have as many carries or as much productivity in college as he might have if he had been fully healthy.

CHARACTER:

No idea how we would rate this, or judge the severity...so due-diligence would be needed to make a final judgment before making an investment in a RB. As well, a RB with "iffy" character...I don't care about "issues" as much for a 5th-7th Round pick -- but is huge if you are going to take the RB in the Top-10 overall in the Draft. 

CURRENTLY SUCCESSFUL "Speed RBs":

RBs like DeAngelo Williams, Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, etc were the group we studied to find characteristics for them, that many other RBs could not measure up to. We looked at RBs that most would consider "great" as well as those who would be considered "good", and tried to find common threads that could be repeated successfully over larger groups for judgment.

How successful is our system?...and its real life application:

I would love it, if we were right 100% of the time...it would be awesome. Likely, no system exists that could be 100% predictive. We look at it from a "gambler's" perspective. We would like to be on the right side of history 70-80%+ of the time, whether predicting greatness or mediocrity (or worse). RBs have really been erratic and their productivity might change as the teams personnel/coaching changes...it's been a hard system to pin and stay current with. 

Our system was developed mainly for aiding our Fantasy Football scouting based on a couple different desires:

1. Obviously, if we can find the next elite RB in the pile of drafted RBs -- then great for us. As well, if we can avoid the highly thought of RB...that our system predicts poorly -- a reverse way of "winning" in Fantasy Football is avoiding a wasted pick or pick-up.
2. If our system seems a potentially good/great RB get snagged by a team who already has a good/great RB...it alters our feelings on the established RB. Example -- when we saw Chris Ivory work his way on to the depth chart with the Saints, it changed our ratings for Pierre Thomas down. Vice-versa, we shouted from the roof-tops that Anthony Dixon and Glen Coffee were no threat to Frank Gore in 2010 (which was awesome until he broke a hip).

If you are following our series of 2011 Draft reports as just a fan of a particular team (and you are not into Fantasy Football), then obviously you want your team to select a potential star and/or avoid a bust/wasted pick. In that case, our ratings still apply as an attempt to project these RBs productivity in the "real"/non-fantasy football. You can look at the our ratings historically and you can judge it's value for yourself.

 

Our system missed out on...

The aforementioned Frank Gore, again you have to take this with a grain of salt on the injury side of things. As an NFL GM, knowing that RBs are readily available in the middle/late/undrafted/waived/free-agency...then I am willing to miss out on a Frank Gore, to avoid several other problems.

Maurice Jones-Drew our system called as good/one-to-watch, but didn't pickup on as more elite an elite rating...and MJD has been a great pro for a few years now. Watch out for the impact that Deji Karim might have on him in 2011.

Ryan Grant is not an elite NFL RB, but I was hoping he would be picked up better by our system being that he was an undrafted RB. Our system analysis didn't see much in him, and has very lowly projected out of college.

The system success stories...

There are 20 RBs that made our a rating of 0.800 or higher, which is a cut line where the good/great start to come into play on our ratings. Many names you would agree with, some are too early to tell, and inevitably there are a few duds -- like J.J. Arrington (he wasn't who we thought he was) and Reggie Bush is barely a "good" RB, definitely not elite.

For a few RBs it will take a few years to see how this plays out as a successful theory for finding current elite RBs or not (RBs rated 0.950+ and higher). There aren't that many actual elite level "speed RBs" as it is in the past 5 years to consider (DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson as debatably elite-level RBs and maybe you can say Matt Forte, Darren McFadden, and Jamal Charles could be on their way) and the system did "find" most of these top-level RBs.

Joseph Addai may make you take pause, as he listed outside the 0.800+ top group, but when you look at his NFL career totals -- they are nice, but not an elite-level NFL RB to me. It's debatable...

We look at the rating system not so much as (example) the #4 ranked on our list is better than the #5 ranked, and so on. If a RB is scoring above 0.800+, we are taking notice -- and when an RB is rated above 0.950+ we have them in the "club" of elites; they are RBs who have many of the characteristics of an NFL elite RB. Which one of the group of "elites" would be your preference may depend upon the team they are drafted on, character issues, etc -- this rating system is designed only (hopefully) to let us "know" who is a stronger probability future elite RB might be.

LEGEND FOR RATINGS:

• SPEED = a combination of various speed measurements, measured against our database on similar RBs
• AGILITY = a combination of various agility test measurements, measured against our database on similar RBs
• POWER = a combination of various physical measurements, measured against our database on similar RBs
• HANDS = a combination of performance metrics and physical metrics to grade "hands" -- not only an ability to catch the ball as a receiver, but for fumble potential as well. A unique/private metric of ours. We gave hands a "grade", but receiving wasn't a huge part of the analysis -- rushing/running ability is what we focused on.

*school grade system, A+ being the best in class historically all the way to F- as historically the worst combination of metrics -- all based on what WRs with those measurements did (or didn't do) in the NFL.

**RBs with scores over 0.800 should be on the radar screen for very good/possible elite; and 0.950+ ratings we would pay very close attention to as a possible future elite NFL RB

***The "skill" ratings (Hands, Speed, Power) are a few category grades we are showing, there are many more metrics and measurements considered, but we thought we'd report out on these  just as an FYI on the some key items the system evaluated.

Rating	Name	College	Yr	Speed	Agility	Power	Hands
1.344	Williams, DeAngelo	Memphis	2006	B	A-	A+	D
1.317	Mathews, Ryan	Fresno St	2010	A+	B	A	D+
1.220	Rice, Ray	Rutgers	2008	B+	A	B+	C
1.138	Brown, Donald	Connecticut	2009	B+	A	B+	C
1.123	Forte, Matt	Tulane	2008	B+	A	A	C+
1.086	Charles, Jamaal	Texas	2008	A+	A	C	C
1.084	Spiller, CJ	Clemson	2010	A+	A	C	A-
1.080	Scott, Bernard	Ab Christian	2009	B+	A	C+	B+
1.075	Harrison, Jerome	Washington St	2006	B	A+	B+	C
1.067	Best, Jahvid	California	2010	A+	A+	C	B
1.052	McFadden, Darren	Arkansas	2008	A+	A	C	C+
1.046	Arrington, J.J	California	2005	A-	A	A	C-
1.010	Bush, Reggie	USC	2006	A+	INC	C+	B+
1.008	Moreno, Knowshon	Georgia	2009	C+	A	A+	A+
1.004	Choice, Tashard	Georgia Tech	2008	B+	A-	A	C
0.989	Johnson, Chris	East Carolina	2008	A+	INC	C-	B-
0.984	Karim, Deji	So Illinois	2010	A+	A-	A	C
0.840	Jones-Drew, Maurice	UCLA	2006	A-	B-	A	B
0.834	Pittman, Antonio	Ohio State	2007	A	A	B-	C
0.823	Jones, Felix	Arkansas	2008	B+	A	B	B

 

It may seem odd to see Ryan Mathews sitting near the top of this rating, considering he didn't appear to have a very elite 2010. Keep in mind that Mathews was a starter right out of the gates for San Diego, and was also injured right away -- nagging (not serious) injuries that had his performance up and down (mostly down) all season. Also, note that only LeGarrette Blount (1,007) had more rushing yards among all 2010 rookies than Mathews (678). San Diego shocked the NFL Draft world by trading way up and taking Mathews way ahead of the draft experts predictions, I think I know why...he's that good on our board too, perhaps just a coincidence. *For a little more on Ryan Mathews that you may find interesting from an article of mine from last preseason click here = RB Ryan Mathews - Fantasy Football 2010 Picks and Projections

You may find Deji Karim and Bernard Scott as very interesting "speed RB" prospects as well on this list as well. The system thinks they are lesser known, small school RBs to watch in coming seasons. If character plays an issue for you, Bernard Scott has quite a checked past...but prototypically, he could be a great NFL RB...I am nervous about the character issues, but those issues are not reflected in the formula.

Rating	Name	College	Yr	Speed	Agility	Power	Hands
0.770	Norwood, Jerious	Miss State	2006	A-	A-	B+	C+
0.760	Ringer, Javon	Michigan St	2009	C-	A	A+	C
0.758	Addai, Joseph	LSU	2006	A	B-	A	B+
0.756	Sproles, Darren	Kansas St	2005	B	A+	C+	B+
0.746	Slaton, Steve	West Virginia	2008	B-	A	B	B
0.740	Smith, Kevin	C. Florida	2008	C	A	B+	C+
0.733	Morency, Vernand	Oklahoma St	2005	C	B	A	D-
0.722	Peerman, Cedric	Virginia	2009	A+	A-	A+	B
0.719	Hart, Mike	Michigan	2008	D+	A-	A+	D
0.664	Simpson, Chad	Morgan State	2008	A+	D-	A	D+
0.650	Hairston, Justise	C Conn St	2007	C-	A	B	D
0.639	Bradshaw, Ahmad	Marshall	2007	C	A+	B-	C
0.638	Thomas, Marcus	UTEP	2008	C+	INC	A	C
0.626	Calhoun, Brian	Wisconsin	2006	C-	B	A	B
0.624	Irons, Kenny	Auburn	2007	B+	B+	B-	C+
0.620	Williams, Carnell	Auburn	2005	B-	A	A	C-
0.588	Starks, James	Buffalo	2010	B-	A	C+	B+
0.587	McCoy, LeSean	Pitt	2009	B-	A	B	B-
0.557	Boyd, Cory	So Carolina	2008	C+	A-	B	B+
0.556	Booker, Lorenzo	Florida St	2007	B+	B-	C	A
0.542	Brown, Thomas	Georgia	2008	C	C+	A+	B-
0.533	Woodhead, Danny	Chadron St	2008	B	B	C+	B
0.530	Wolfe, Garrett	No Illinois	2007	A+	A+	D	C
0.516	Jackson, Brandon	Nebraska	2007	C	B+	A	B
0.515	Alridge, Anthony	Houston	2008	A+	A	F-	B
0.514	Peerman, Alvin	Virginia	2005	D	B+	A+	B
0.510	Gore, Frank	Miami, Fla	2005	C-	A	B+	C+
0.492	Coffee, Glen	Alabama	2009		D-	B+	C
0.453	Herron, Noah	Northwestern	2005	D	A	C	B
0.399	Fason, Ciatrick	Florida	2005	C-		B-	B-
0.375	Anderson, Andre	Tulane	2010	C-	A	B	B
0.372	Forsett, Justin	California	2008	C+	C-	B-	B-
0.365	Walker, Darius	Notre Dame	2007	C+	C-	B	A
0.359	Washington, Chauncey	USC	2008	B+	F-	A	D+
0.351	Goodson, Mike	Texas A&M	2009	B-	A	C	A+
0.344	Washington, Leon	Florida St	2006	B	A-	B+	B
0.338	Moats, Ryan	La Tech	2005	C+	D+	A	C-
0.333	Patrick, Allen	Oklahoma	2008	B	INC	C	C
0.322	McKnight, Joe	USC	2010	B	C-	C	B
0.304	James, Javarris	Miami, Fla	2010	C	B	B+	B+
0.293	Davis, Anthony	Wisconsin	2005		D	A	C-
0.266	Savage, Dantrell	Oklahoma St	2008	C+	B	F-	B
0.250	McCluster, Dexter	Ole Miss	2010	C	A+	D+	B+
0.197	Glasford, Travis	W. Illinois	2006	B	INC	C-	A
0.183	Johnson, Gartrell	Colorado State	2009	D	INC	D+	B
0.174	Young, Selvin	Texas	2007	C	INC	B	B
0.111	Grant, Ryan	Notre Dame	2005	B-	B+	B-	D-
-0.205	Cobb, DeAndra	Michigan State	2005	C+	C+	C	C-
-0.286	Darby, Kenneth	Alabama	2007	F	D	A	B

 

 

The 2011 "speed RB" Class Ratings?

Individual reports will come out on some of the main RBs this week, pre-draft (hopefully) and post draft. It looks like we have no 2011 "speed RBs" above our cut line of 0.950+ for elite, but we do have 2 prospects to keep an eye on above 0.800+...and another very intriguing (to me) RB that didn't make the 0.800+ cut (but, was close), but that is an amazing physical specimen and someone I would want as a later round pick to take a gamble on if I could get my hands on them. The reveals coming as fast as we can produce them...

 

 

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