*See related article = Statistically Looking for Elite "Speed" RBs, and Recent RB Historical Ratings

 

You can read the about "Speed RBs" version of this analysis at the link above. The first couple of paragraphs from that article, works as a start here as well:

Much like our WR ratings and mathematical analysis of them, we separate and judge RBs based upon what "class" they will likely be in. What makes Peyton Hillis, Brandon Jacobs and Mike Tolbert valuable in the NFL is much different than what makes Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, and Jahvid Best valuable in the NFL. Peyton Hillis is never going beat Reggie Bush in a foot race, but Hillis will get the ball more on 3rd & one and 4th & Goal.

We look at a couple physical factors or "profiles" based on various physical metrics and some on-field performance metrics, and make a determination on each incoming RB; and some of the decisions you may disagree with. A player may gain weight/muscle in the NFL and ultimately move them from one class/style to another...but all we can deal with is what they are at the time of moving from college to the NFL. When we see players on the edge of going either way, we try to run them both ways and put them with their best "class". Our 2 classifications for analysis are "speed RBs" and "power RBs".

"Speed RBs" being more outside runners, short passing game, runners you want to get into space and not work as much up the middle (also prone to injury more often). "Power RBs" being more inside/off-tackle runners, not as apt to be as big in the passing game...but can be.

As you see our historical RB ratings and rankings, you will notice it almost all of the players are within the last 5-6 years. On RBs we try to stay in a more tight recent time range for a few reasons:

1. RBs are just not lasting that long in the NFL. Five (or more) seasons in the NFL as a frontline starter with no issues, is getting more and more rare -- whether due to injury or "job sharing"; the "elite" NFL RB is becoming a dinosaur of sorts.
2. Trying to compare modern day RBs to "old school" RBs has been tough for us on the data we look at, for a variety of reasons. Trouble finding all the data we need is one issue. Overall, it has been more predictive to keep the group logic more recent -- which causes us to have to make more "leaps of faith", trying to pattern after current NFL elite RB trends...as the trends seem to change faster among RBs within a 5 year moving/trailing period (at least within our data).

Remember to bookmark us for your Fantasy Football Draft. Our cheat sheet and draft guide will rank 400+ players. Go To our Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet and Guide page for free samples from 2010.

POWER RB's

As we have put these lists together the last couple of years, one thing seems to stick out -- a nice blend of speed/power with a tilt more on the power seems to have lasting power in the NFL...and thus is a better investment.

This is an over-simplification of a comparison of "speed vs. power" RBs...but, the last 5 seasons of Top-5 rushing yardage producers in the NFL are as follows: 

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
1)	LaDainian Tomlinson	LaDainian Tomlinson	Adrian Peterson	Chris Johnson	Adrian Foster
2)	Larry Johnson	Adrian Peterson	Michael Turner	Steven Jackson	Jamaal Charles
3)	Frank Gore	Bryan Westbrook	DeAngelo Williams	Thomas Jones	Michael Turner
4)	Tiki Barber	Willie Parker	Clinton Portis	M. Jones-Drew	Chris Johnson
5)	Steven Jackson	Jamal Lewis	Thomas Jones	Adrian Peterson	M. Jones-Drew

• 4 out of the last 5 Rushing Leaders, are larger frame/bigger "power RBs"...in our system
• 4 out of the last 5 Rushing TD leaders were "power RBs" as well, even the year Chris Johnson ran for 2,006 yards...Adrian Peterson led the league in Rushing TDs.
• 12 out of the 18 names above, we define as "power RBs"
• of the 25 slots above, 15 are taken up by "Power RBs"

It's not necessarily by a wide margin that "Power RBs" produce better than "Speed RBs", it's just that the lasting potential and/or the return on investment has been safer. LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, and Adrian Peterson seem to have a longer run at the top of their game more than the  sporadic "speed RBs" like a Willie Parker, Darren McFadden, etc. Not because of a talent drop-off, it may just be the smaller framed "speed RBs" cannot absorb the hits as well over a sustained period of time...who knows for sure? When it comes to an NFL Franchise, or a Fantasy Football team, the safer play seems to be to lean toward a "Power RB".

The Patriots seem to have tilted toward this philosophy as well, giving more of the burden to Laurence Maroney and BenJarvus Green-Ellis over the past few years, and shying away from "speed RBs". Their big investment in a "speed RB" in 2010 was claiming Danny Woodhead off waivers. The last 10 years of leading rushers/rush attempt RBs for the Patriots are all bigger framed, taller/heavier RBs.

The Patriots leading rushers the past 10 years:

• 2001 = Antwain Smith (6'2, 232)
• 2002 = Antwain Smith
• 2003 = Antwain Smith
• 2004 = Corey Dillon (6'1, 225)
• 2005 = Corey Dillon
• 2006 = Corey Dillon
• 2007 = Laurence Maroney (5'11, 220)
• 2008 = Sammie Morris (6'0, 220)
• 2009 = Laurence Maroney
• 2010 = BenJarvus Green-Ellis (5'11, 215)

You may conclude by all this, "I knew the Patriots were going to want Mark Ingram"...they might, especially if you look at their recent decade of RB draft picks -- all bigger/big frame RBs...not "speed RBs":

• 2000 = Patrick Pass (5'11, 238) 7th Round
• 2000 = JR Redmond (5'11, 213) 3rd Round
• 2002 = Antwoine Womack (5'11, 223) 7th Round
• 2004 = Cedric Cobbs (6'0, 227) 4th Round
• 2006 = Laurence Maroney (6'0, 217) 1st Round
• 2006 = Garrett Mills (6'1, 235) 4th Round
• 2007 = Justise Harriston (6'1, 220) 6th Round

Not a lot of "3rd Down RBs" on the list, or "hey, let's run the student body right" (for those not old-school, that's a "sweep" running play) RBs on this list. All bigger, bulky RBs, that are mostly later round selections...but, they did take Maroney in the 1st Round in 2006.

Not that the Patriots RB Draft history list is filled with future Hall-of-Famers, it's just the "profile" of what the smartest personnel team the last decade has trended on -- targeting, and giving the bulk of the work to, bigger, "power RBs". Typically, when the Patriots are doing something in a pattern...it's best to at least take note of it.

 

Measuring "Power RBs"

Elite size and power are not enough to be a sustainably good/elite RB in the NFL (Brandon Jacobs may be the one RB that can break that rule, but looking at his career...good, but not elite). When you can find elite level speed and agility, mixed with a bigger frame and strength...it is rare, and you have the foundation for a sustainable elite NFL RB. The size and speed measurements (and college on-field performance) of Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart and Steven Jackson are a very rare and valuable commodity -- one that is seemingly worth using a higher draft pick on.

What we based our measurements on...

PHYSICAL MEASUREABLES:

We noticed some repeating patterns on various physical attributes, and certain combinations of attributes...we gave the most desired attributes a higher consideration/grading. Speed and agility with this group is a desired characteristic, but the speed grading scale doesn't have to be as high for "Power RBs" as it does for our "Speed RBs". It is equally important for the "power RBs" that their strength/physical frame metrics be at a higher level for grading.

We know physical measureables can be tricky and erratic, sometimes left to NFL (at the Combine) or college (pro-days) representatives for accuracy. It is possible that we can get fooled with a "off" measurement, but we have to trust the data the way it is presented -- as it is all we have, as well it is just one part of the overall analysis/algorithms.

We also look at hand size, arm lengths and other various physical measurements and metrics -- factoring them in as historical trends would dictate.

ON-FIELD PERFORMANCE:

We focus a lot on the final season of performance, with some balancing/weighting of the results on their performance  based on the strength of opponents faced...as well as strength of conference. Racking up big raw totals on D-II teams if you play for an Alabama (example), is not going to help you in our system...we throw out performance against mismatched opponents. We also look at some career performance metrics as well, as there was some correlations here for us -- unlike our QB and WR ratings that didn't give us many clues based on career totals/development, we do lean on it for RB analysis.

NOT AS MUCH AS A RECEIVER:

We considered receiving totals very slightly. Our interest in studying the RBs was for their ability to the run the ball at the next level. Nothing we looked at statistically ever jumped out to help predict "3rd Down RB" ability per say. We see some patterns with the physical prototype of a future good "3rd Down RBs", but nothing we felt comfortable looking at their college performance and including as a substantial piece of the formula. We have a "hands" rating that you will see below, and that is a "swipe" at trying to predict receiving ability, as well as ball security, from the college/physical metrics...but it's not anything we see a huge statistical value or correlation in grading the projection of the RB.

INJURY:

We really can't really quantify severity of injury, or recovery ability. That has caused a potential blind-spot, so due-diligence is needed on RBs with injury issues -- like Arian Foster, who had multiple injury issues in college and didn't rate well in our statistical analysis. Foster did not grade well on physical measureables, and likely didn't have as many carries or as much productivity in college as he might have if he had been fully healthy. Pro scouts must have thought the same, as Foster went undrafted in 2008. We would have loved for our mathematical analysis to "find" Foster...but, alas it did not (and my Dad, and rabid Texans fan, is sure to point this "miss" out on occasion).

CHARACTER:

No idea how we would rate this, or judge the severity...so due-diligence would be needed to make a final judgment before making an investment in a RB. As well, a RB with "iffy" character we can't really quantify per say...it gets a little too subjective. From a draft perspective, I don't care about character "issues" as much for a 4th-7th Round pick -- but is huge if you are going to take the RB in the 1st Round in the Draft. 

CURRENTLY SUCCESSFUL "Power RBs":

RBs like Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Arian Foster, Rashard Mendenhall etc were some among the group we studied to find characteristics for them, that many other RBs could not measure up to. We looked at RBs that most would consider "great" as well as those who would be considered "good", and tried to find common threads that could be predicted successfully over larger groups of RBs for judgment.

 

How successful is our system?...and its real life application:

I would love it, if we were right 100% of the time...it would be awesome. Likely, no system exists that could be 100% predictive. We look at it from a "gambler's" perspective. We would like to be on the right side of history 70-80%+ of the time, whether predicting greatness or mediocrity (or worse). RBs have really been erratic in the NFL, and their productivity might change as the teams personnel/coaching changes...it's been a hard system to pin and stay current with. 

Our system was developed mainly for aiding our Fantasy Football scouting based on a couple different desires:

1. Obviously, if we can find the next elite RB in the pile of drafted RBs -- then great for us. As well, if we can avoid the highly thought of RB that our system predicts poorly -- that is a reverse way of "winning" in Fantasy Football ; by avoiding a wasted pick or pick-up on a "bust".
2. If our system sees a potentially good/great RB get snagged by a team who already has a good/great RB...it alters our feelings on the established RB. Example -- when we saw Chris Ivory work his way on to the depth chart with the Saints, it changed our ratings for Pierre Thomas down. Vice-versa, we shouted from the roof-tops that Anthony Dixon and Glen Coffee were no threat to Frank Gore in 2010 (which was awesome until Gore broke a hip).

If you are following our series of 2011 individual Draft reports as just a fan of a particular team (and you are not into Fantasy Football), then obviously you want your team to select a potential star and/or avoid a bust/wasted pick. In that case, our ratings can still apply as an attempt to project these RBs productivity in the "real"/non-fantasy football world. You can look at the our ratings historically and you can judge it's value for yourself.

 

A few our system missed out on...

The aforementioned Arian Foster, again you have to take this with a grain of salt on the injury side of things. As an NFL GM, knowing that RBs are readily available in the middle/late/undrafted/waived/free-agency...then I am willing to miss out on a Arian Foster, to avoid several other problems. If the Texans thought they struck gold with Foster, they never would have drafted Ben Tate so high. Had Tate not gotten hurt preseason 2010, we may be talking about Tate like we do Arian Foster right now. Either way, Foster had an amazing year in 2010 and our system didn't see it coming.

Peyton Hillis was a college backup to Darren McFadden and Felix Jones...and was used as an odd FB/H-back for Arkansas, almost catching more passes than running attempts his final year -- thus, in our system his on-field performance metrics are very odd for an college RB.  Physically, Hillis is obviously huge -- but think about all the successful "Hulk" type RBs over time...there aren't many. Hillis is not overly fast or agile, and remember Jerome Harrison was elite for half a season with the Browns the year prior...the Browns may have a great rushing system/O-Line in place. I think Hillis is going to continue to have trouble with very his small hands (by NFL standards), which is bad for cold Cleveland...and you saw the kind of fumble issues he had in 2010. Hillis obviously had a great 2010 season, but let's see if this is a long term thing or a blip. He is on the Madden cover, so really watch out in 2011.

Cedric Benson is maybe a minor miss...although I don't think so. When you look at it -- one kinda good season in 2009, low yards per carry, low TDs even if his productive 2 seasons out of his 6 total seasons. Definitely, not an elite.

 

The system success stories...

There are 19 RBs that made our a rating of 0.800+ or higher (pre-2011), which is a cut line where the good/great start to come into play on our ratings. Many names you would agree with, some are too early to tell, and inevitably there are a few duds -- like Eric Shelton (injury riddled right from the get go) and maybe  Jackie Battle (but, he has shown sparks of hope...not giving up on fully yet, but definitely not a success story to date). Lendale White, who knows -- you have to call him a "bust", but what might have been if he had his head screwed on straight...

There are 9 "power RBs" that scored 0.950+, as a higher probable elite level NFL RB; most of which you would tend to agree with...some the story still needs to play out. You will see LaDainian Tomlinson is also on there...which is a player drafted outside of the last 5-7 years recent range that we try to stick within, but I just had to know how LT rated within the current group/formula.  Jackie Battle, to this point, is the odd man out of this (potential) "elite" group.

We look at the rating system not so much as (example) the #1 ranked on our list is better than the #2 ranked, and so on. If a RB is scoring above 0.800+, we are taking notice -- and when an RB is rated above 0.950+ we have them in the "club" of elites; they are RBs who have many of the characteristics of an NFL elite RB. Which one of the group of "elites" would be your preference may depend upon the team they are drafted on, character issues, etc -- this rating system is designed only (hopefully) to let us "know" whom a stronger probability future elite RB might be.

LEGEND FOR RATINGS:

• SPEED = a combination of various speed measurements, measured against our database on similar RBs
• AGILITY = a combination of various agility test measurements, measured against our database on similar RBs
• POWER = a combination of various physical measurements, measured against our database on similar RBs
• HANDS = a combination of performance metrics and physical metrics to grade "hands" -- not only an ability to catch the ball as a receiver, but for fumble potential as well. A unique/private metric of ours. We gave hands a "grade", but receiving wasn't a huge part of the analysis -- rushing/running ability is what we focused on.

*school grade system, A+ being the best in class historically all the way to F- as historically the worst combination of metrics -- all based on what WRs with those measurements did (or didn't do) in the NFL.

**RBs with scores over 0.800 should be on the radar screen for very good/possible elite; and 0.950+ ratings we would pay very close attention to as a possible future elite NFL RB

***The "skill" ratings (Hands, Speed, Power) are a few category grades we are showing, there are many more metrics and measurements considered, but we thought we'd report out on these  just as an FYI on the some key items the system evaluated.

Rating	Name	College	Yr	Speed	Agility	Power	Hands
1.202	Tomlinson, LaDainian	TCU	2001	A	A+	C	C
1.122	Stewart, Jonathan	Oregon	2008	A+	B	A+	C+
1.095	Mendenhall, Rashard	Illinois	2008	A+	B+	A+	B
1.076	Peterson, Adrian	Oklahoma	2007	A+	B	B-	C+
1.068	Gerhart, Toby	Stanford	2010	B+	A-	B+	D+
1.026	Tate, Ben	Auburn	2010	A+	A	A-	C-
1.007	Turner, Michael	No Illinois	2004	A-	D	A	C
1.002	Jackson, Steven	Oregon State	2004	A	B+	C-	B+
0.973	Battle, Jackie	Houston	2007	A+	A+	C	D
0.947	White, Lendale	USC	2006	A-	B	D	C
0.909	Wells, Chris	Ohio State	2009	B+	INC	A+	D
0.901	Maroney, Lawrence	Minnesota	2006	A-	A	B-	C
0.890	Blount, LeGarrette	Oregon	2010	C-	A	B-	D
0.886	Brown, Ronnie	Auburn	2005	A+	B+	C+	A+
0.865	Jacobs, Brandon	So Illinois	2005	B	D	A	B+
0.851	Shelton, Eric	Louisville	2005	B-	D+	C+	D+
0.847	Hardesty, Montario	Tennessee	2010	A+	A	B	C+
0.842	Parmele, Jalen	Toledo	2008	A+	A-	C	C-
0.838	Tolbert, Mike	Costal Carolina	2008	B	INC	A+	C

 

Rating	Name	College	Yr	Speed	Agility	Power	Hands
0.764	Greene, Shonn	Iowa	2009	C	B-	C+	D
0.725	Henry, Chris	Arizona	2007	A	A-	A	B
0.722	Bell, Joique	Wayne St	2010	C-	A+	D	C
0.720	Lynch, Marshawn	California	2007	A	B	B-	A+
0.714	Wynn, DeShawn	Florida	2007	A	C	A	D
0.704	Bush, Michael	Louisville	2007	C	D+	C	B
0.675	Benson, Cedric	Texas	2005	C+	D	B	C
0.658	Barber, Marion	Minnesota	2005	A-	C	B	D
0.642	Hightower, Tim	Richmond	2008	B-	C-	B	C
0.631	Hilliard, Lex	Montana	2008	C	B+	C	C
0.626	Smith, Kolby	Louisville	2007	B+	C	C-	A
0.612	Ivory, Chris	Tiffin	2010	A-	C	B	C
0.588	Dwyer, Jonathan	Georgia Tech	2010	C	D-	D	F
0.584	Bell, Mike	Arizona	2006	C+	C+	C	C+
0.558	Dixon, Anthony	Mississippi St	2010	C	B	D	C
0.552	Wright, Dewayne	Fresno St	2007	C	C	F	B+
0.517	Miller, Lonyae	Fresno St	2010	A	C	B+	F
0.509	Ilaoa, Nate	Hawaii	2007	D	B-	A+	A
0.489	Nash, Damien	Missouri	2005	B	A+	C	A
0.470	Foster, Arian	Tennessee	2009	C	B	B	A+
0.458	Clarett, Maurice	Ohio State	2005	F	D	B+	C-
0.423	Torain, Ryan	Arizona State	2008	C+	C	B-	C-
0.423	Hunt, Tony	Penn State	2007	C-	D	A	C-
0.411	Brown, Andre	NC State	2009	A+	D+	A-	A+
0.378	Houston, Cedric	Tennessee	2005	C	C-	C	C
0.365	Hillis, Peyton	Arkansas	2008	C+	C+	A+	A-
0.348	Clayton, Thomas	Kansas St	2007	C	C	B	B+
0.196	Snelling, Jason	Virginia	2007	D-	B	D	A
0.120	Green-Ellis, BenJarvus	Ole Miss	2008	C+	D-	A+	D

 

The 2011 "Power RB" Class Ratings?

Individual reports will come out on some of the main RBs this week, pre-draft (hopefully) and post draft. We do have one of the 2011 "power RB" rated above our cut line of 0.950+ for elite (spoiler alert, not Mark Ingram), and we have 2 other prospects to keep an eye on above 0.800+. Reports coming as fast as we can produce them.

 

 

Select a position from the tabs below to see stats and scouting information for that respective position.

• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
•