*"Small WR" = under 6'2 and under 204 pounds, or
under 6'0 tall no matter what, our "Big WRs"
= 6'0+ and 205+ pounds,
or 6'2+ no matter what weight
*See the full WR Draft pick
argument/research here =
NFL Draft 2011 - Why are you so sure Julio Jones
and A.J. Green are NFL "Locks"? A Look at the
Comedy that is WR Draft Picks in the NFL -
Fantasy Football 2011
As well as our Part I companion work rating the
"Big WRs"
NFL Draft 2011 - In Search of the Next Great NFL
WR -- a Mathematical Analysis of College WRs -
Fantasy Football 2011 -- and Part II on the
"Small WRs"
NFL Draft 2011 - In Search of the Next Great NFL
WR -- a Mathematical Analysis of College WRs,
Part II - Fantasy Football 2011
So, most of you probably don't know who
Kealoha Pilares is -- and I had no idea who
he was before he popped out of our computer...
For those that were not already familiar with
Pilares, I think you are about to be amazed
(hopefully) and then angry...potentially angry
about why this WR is not being discussed among
the Top-10 WRs in the NFL Draft. I just assume
most of you haven't heard of him...or if you
have, you likely went flying right by him on any
list because most NFL Draft media outlets don't
seem to care about him. A quick sampling I took
at the time of this writing:
- ESPN.com has Pilares rated as the #25
overall WR
- NFL.com has Pilares rated as the #28
overall WR
- CBS Sports.com has Pilares rated as the
#41 overall WR
Pilares is our #2 "small WR" overall, and if
I was forced to combine our "big" and "small" WR
lists together, I would say Pilares would be
around our #5-7 overall WR. Pilares also rates
as a potential elite NFL WR based historically
in our system, which makes him a potentially
huge steal for some team in this Draft. Let's
look at the Pilares resume' and then explain why
he is rated so low nationally...
When looking at Pilares's body of work, note
he played for Hawaii...which is a team
that essentially passes on every down, but there
are more and more college teams like that; and
other 2011 "small WR" prospects benefitted
(statistically) from this high-octane offense
approach (not just Pilares). However, when we
crunch our on-field performance metrics for a
WR, their voluminous overall stats don't play a
factor...we take the raw on-field totals/stats
and compare them within the overall offense (so
we account for high or low pass attempt
offenses, etc). *Also note, Pilares missed 2
games this past season...had he played a full
season, his overall raw stats might have been
approx 100+ catches, 1,500+ yards, and 17-18+
TDs.
Pilares Highlights:
- 88 catches in 2010, leads all of our
"small WRs" in receptions (of the ones that
we are concentrating on, 13 in total)
- 1,306 receiving yards in 2010, 2nd among
our "small WRs"
- 15 TDs in 2010, 2nd among our "small
WRs"
- 4.42 in the 40-yard dash, 5th among our
"small WRs"
- 1.51 in the 10-yard dash, tied for best
overall among our "small WRs" with Torrey
Smith
- 2nd best Bench Press total among our
"small WRs", tied with Torrey Smith
- 40.5" Vertical Leap, 2nd best behind
Torrey Smith...0.5" away from the top
spot
- One of the best scoring on the Wonderlic
test, among any of the 2011 WRs -- big or
small
When we discount Pilares on-field stats, to
account for his high-pass attempt offense played
in, his comparative/relative metrics still held
up well above average comparing him within the
2011 WR class...and historically.
Why Pilares is shied
away from as a top WR prospect nationally...
In Hawaii's 2010 Bowl Game, Pilares
partially tore his PCL (no surgery
needed)...and that is a scary thing
for a prospect, no doubt -- and that's what
every draft writer is basing their
tepid/non-existent scouting of Pilares on, but
(a la the great Paul Harvey) "the rest
of the story" is:
Pilares had to skip the NFL Combine while
rehabbing that PCL injury, but was able to
participate at the Hawaii Pro-Day. Three months
removed from having a partially torn PCL,
Pilares almost set a University of
Hawaii record for the highest recorded
Vertical Jump (again, one of the best among all
WRs prospects in 2011), as well as running a
fast/well above average 4.42 in the 40-yard
dash, others (reportedly) clocked him at 4.37 in
the 40. Pilares 10-yard dash (speed burst) was
tied for the best in class for 2011 "small WRs".
Pilares, along with Torrey Smith, has
incredible physical measureables comparatively
among the 2011 "small WR" class...incredible
versus the rest of the 2011 group, as well as
great historically as WRs translate to the NFL
in our mathematical models. Again for Pilares,
all these great physical tests are coming off a
partially torn PCL 3 months prior.
When you combine excellent physical
measureables with very good/great on-field
performance, I'm not sure how this does not
translate to at least a top-10 status among all
2011 WRs. I know the PCL injury is a dark cloud,
but there is a big difference between a
partially torn PCL versus a blown out/surgically
repaired PCL or ACL. When I read the various 2
sentence blurbs from the mainstream draft media
about Pilares, it always mentions the PCL injury
(even through he has obviously run and cut well
since then) and then mentions how he is not fast
enough to be a top prospect. You have to not be
paying attention to write that, Pilares is
neck-and-neck with Torrey Smith for the
most impressive physical prototype among the
2011 "small WRs".
More interesting nuggets on Pilares:
- Pilares is a former DB and RB, turned WR
- As a RB for Hawaii in his Freshman and
Sophomore seasons, Pilares averaged over 5.5
yards per carry in 124 rushing attempts
- Pilares also had 8 rushing TDs within
those 124 rushing attempts, a rushing TD
every 15.5 carries
- Pilares is a Hawaii state triple-jump
champion
- Pilares was the Hawaii Offensive Player
of the Year in his senior year of High
School
Pilares has really only played WR for 2
seasons in his life, and had an amazing 2nd
season as a WR honing his craft in 2010 (again,
in a pass favorable system...but we attempt to
account for that).
The NFL WR that is the
best match of Kealoha Pilares in our system:
Looking at similar sized "small WRs"
that are a more "solid" frame with very good
speed and good agility, Pierre Garcon is
a fairly similar match. There is some Percy
Harvin in Pilares as well, but Harvin has
such great/unreal agility metrics the computer
wouldn't take it...but it was close. Pilares
could be a very dangerous "small WR" in the NFL,
as he is built so sturdy with speed -- he could
be very dangerous "in space" off of quick passes
while covered by smaller DBs that he can
"steamroll" over/through (remember he is a big
framed, converted RB). If healthy, Pilares has
the potential to be a difference making type
"small WR" in the NFL utilized in the correct
manner (and stays healthy). Pilares could
"kinda" be a "poor man's Percy Harvin", with
better "off-field" intangibles.
LEGEND FOR RATINGS:
- SPEED = a combination of speed
measurements from the NFL Combine/Pro-Days,
measured against our database on similar
WRs
- AGILITY = a combination of
agility test measurements from the NFL
Combine/Pro-Days, measured against our database on similar WRs
- HANDS = a combination of
performance metrics and physical metrics to
grade "hands" or ability to catch the ball
translated ahead to the NFL. A
unique/private metric of ours.
- INJURY = an injury risk rating
based on a unique/private metric of ours, as
injury seems to be an issue with this group
*school grade system, A+ being the best in
class historically all the way to F- as
historically the worst combination of metrics --
all based on what WRs with those measurements
did (or didn't do) in the NFL.
|
LAST |
FIRST |
Draft Year |
COLLEGE |
H |
H |
W |
40-y |
Hands |
Speed |
Agility |
INJ |
|
Pilares |
Kealoha |
2011 |
Hawaii |
5 |
9.7 |
199 |
4.42 |
B+ |
B |
B |
Low |
|
Garcon |
Pierre |
2008 |
Mt Union |
5 |
11.9 |
210 |
4.42 |
B |
B- |
A+ |
Low |
|
Smith |
Steve |
2007 |
USC |
5 |
11.8 |
197 |
4.44 |
B+ |
B |
B+ |
Low |
|
Harvin |
Percy |
2009 |
Florida |
5 |
11.1 |
192 |
4.41 |
A |
B |
A+ |
Med |
Kealoha
Pilares Overall
System Score = +1.119
* See this story for background on our system
scoring methodology for "small WRs" --
NFL Draft 2011 - In Search of the Next Great NFL
WR -- a Mathematical Analysis of College WRs,
Part II - Fantasy Football 2011
2011 NFL DRAFT Outlook
for Kealoha Pilares
Kealoha Pilares is virtually nowhere
to be found on most every mainstream draft media
WR list, but if he passes all his physicals (and
we have to assume he can based on his amazing
pro-day performance) then I would guarantee he
is on "smart" NFL team's draft boards much
higher than the mainstream lists. I am not
saying this to elevate our evaluation as
"genius"...it's just after doing this analysis
for a few years now, (I think) I know
(statistically) what the "smart" teams look for
in WRs (and sometimes we are all wrong
ultimately), especially the smaller ones --
Kealoha Pilares is the prototypical Bill
Polian/Colts type pick, but I also think it
meets a lot of the San Diego Chargers
criteria.
I haven't a clue where Pilares will be
selected, but I would bet on 2 things for him in
the NFL Draft:
- Pilares will be selected by a team we
would all agree is "smart" on personnel
decisions, Indianapolis, San Diego, New
England, NY Jets, KC Chiefs, Philly
are a few to watch. Pilares has smaller
hands, so I would think a cold weather team
wouldn't be as great a fit...but he is going
to be such a steal, it probably won't matter
to the drafting team (smaller hands is more
an issue with "big WRs, not "small WRs
translating to the NFL, according to our
research). Put me down for San Diego
or Indianapolis, with San
Francisco as a wild-card.
- Pilares will be within the first 20 WRs
taken. Again, he is rated about 25th-40th+
WR on most media draft boards. It's a shame
if he is taken somewhere around the 15-25th+
WR overall, because he should be a Top-10
WR...he is going to be a major steal
anywhere near the 20th overall WR taken.
We will project Kealoha Pilares's 2011
Fantasy Football production in our 2011 "Big
Board" Draft Guide. The NFL season schedules are out
and the NFL Draft is almost upon us, so
the computers are geared up to start running
analysis on projecting players and situations
for 2011 -- our
2011 Fantasy
Football Draft Guide on sale this summer
(even if you don't play Fantasy Football you
might really enjoy this work) with
400+ players evaluated statistically for the
upcoming season!
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Football Draft Guide is EVER-EVOLVING
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projections and commentary as often as daily
(sometimes multiple times daily if news warrants
it)...we work just like your own personal "war
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