You may enjoy companion articles:
NFL Draft 2011: Statistically Looking for Elite
"Speed" RBs, and Recent RB Historical Ratings
and
NFL Draft 2011: Statistically Looking for Elite
"Power RBs", and Recent RB Historical Ratings -
Fantasy Football 2011
Most of the 2011 NFL Draft RB focus is on
Mark Ingram, with a little bit of love to
Ryan Williams of Virginia Tech. I've only
seen Mel Kiper really mention Mikel Leshoure's
name equivalent to Ingram/Williams. To hear the
coverage of Round-1 last night it was almost
laughable -- when the Saints (over) traded to
take Mark Ingram, everyone in the Draft
media fell all over themselves..."oh, you
gotta take Ingram if you need an RB",
"Saints do it again, they are going back to
the Super Bowl".
Do any of the ESPN draft commentators
actually do any homework beyond the (supposed)
top 10-20 players, or do they have any business
sense? Mel Kiper, who actually does
homework has Leshoure up near Ingram...but is
drowned out by Jon Gruden exclaiming that
every draft pick "is great", "I love
that guy", "he just wants to be good"
-- were there any bad picks last night according
to anyone on ESPN? Not according to Jon
Gruden...just your normal 32
elite/franchise/non-bust players selected in
exact proper order, just like every year...
The discussion/debate on the trade-up and
selection of Mark Ingram, should at least
be relative to the other RB value out
there....namely Mikel Leshoure and
Ryan Williams. However, that might
take time away from asking the tough questions
like, "how does it feel to be a New Orleans
Saint"? The Draft coverage on Day-1 has
gotten very sterile and vanilla, it's not fair
to smarter fans that seemingly follow/study this
"draft stuff" more than most of the people
covering it.
In the inexact science (at best) of high
draft picks in the NFL Draft, with maybe a track
record of maybe 50/50 success or return on
investment (which isn't slamming it, there are
only so many good players available) -- how
possibly could every pick be "great"? We hear
this coverage as fans over and over, and many
start to believe. Just focusing on the RB side
of the world right now -- the fact is, there are
several RB prospects in this Draft as good or
better than Mark Ingram. Even, if Ingram
is really good...there are plenty of really good
RBs out there, like almost every year.
The question then becomes a business question
-- why, knowing there are several similar RBs
out there, would you overspend/reach for one in
particular? Not only (in the Saints case)
wasting valuable draft picks, but when it comes
to payroll -- over spending for a commodity that
is plenty available in the Draft, undrafted or
in free-agency/waivers.
Transcendent RB prospects are rare (like an
Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, or
Barry Sanders ...all of whom have never won
a Super Bowl), and I think for most of us there
are no RB in the 2011 Draft looks like a
transcendent NFL RB. An amazing, transcendent RB
I might make a play for...a good one, is a
dime-a-dozen.
RBs just do not hold up as an investment like
they used to, often you need 2 or 3 good ones on
a roster to have 1 or 2 available to
play/produce. Many NFL teams have moved to using
a combination of lower pick/lower payroll
specialty RBs. Rarely, are any teams loading up
with multiple high pick RB to fill their
"stable". One team that has recently gone with a
two 1st Round-pick RB tandem that comes to mind
is Carolina (DeAngelo Williams and
Jonathan Stewart)...oh yeah, they are the
worst team in football from 2010. Buffalo had it
for a moment with Marshawn Lynch and
C.J. Spiller, until Lynch was dealt on the
cheap. The Colts are trying it with Joseph
Addai and Donald Brown (undrafted
Javarris James led them in TDs in 2010), I'm not
sure either have been healthy enough to have
actually played together for more then a few
games in the last 2 years. The trend (not the
rule) in the NFL leans towards patching together
RBs as you can from various outlets...making all
RBs a cheap commodity.
Green Bay just went from losing undrafted
starter Ryan Grant for a season due to
injury, to flopping around with 2nd Round pick
Brandon Jackson, to getting production
out of undrafted John Kuhn, to riding 6th
Round pick James Starks...all the way to
the Super Bowl.
The Saints won the Super Bowl the year prior,
with leading rusher (undrafted) Pierre Thomas.
The 2nd leading rusher for the Saints in 2009 --
Mike Bell (undrafted, free-agent pickup
from DEN). The 3rd leading rusher...incredibly
expensive, overwhelmingly poor return on
investment (jersey sales aside) -- Reggie
Bush.
The team with best regular season record in
2010 -- New England...led in rushing by
(undrafted) BenJarvus Green-Ellis,
followed by (undrafted, waiver pickup) Danny
Woodhead.
The RB position in the NFL, by virtue of the
way they are used these days (dual RBs) and the
limited business return on investment for your
money spent, is a bad business decision to spend
a lot of money/assets on. Unless selling jerseys
is your more primary business objective, and for
some NFL teams/owners (sadly) that is the
absolute truth.
If you are going to spend a higher
pick/higher payroll, it had better be for a RB
that checks all the boxes -- historically elite
speed/agility, historically elite
power/strength/size and the elite on-field
performance to confirm it. There is one RB that
is grading out pretty close (for us) to hit all
those boxes, and it is not Mark Ingram
-- it is Illinois RB Mikel Leshoure.
Leshoure vs. Ingram vs.
Ryan Williams
Most Draft Lists will have Mark Ingram
as their #1 rated RB, and then usually Ryan
Williams or Mikel Leshoure at #2 and
#3. All 3 look like they could be productive RBs
to varying degrees in the NFL. However, I see a
few red-flags with Ingram and Williams, that I
don't see as bad with Leshoure. I am going to
make the case of why Leshoure is a better
prospect than Ingram or Williams, and if you see
value in my argument -- the real question then
is, "why is everyone hyper-ventilating over
Mark Ingram"?, as well "did the Saints make
a mistake over-paying for Ingram"?
From an on-field performance (statistically
speaking), we don't see a huge difference
between Ingram, Williams or Leshoure...but
possibly there is. First, look at the following
comparison of the 3 RBs based on their best
statistical season in college -- for Ingram and
Williams that was 2009, and Leshoure it was
2010. Also not for this comparison, we threw
games against very weak competition out -- for
Ingram is was games against Chattanooga, Fla
Atlantic and North Texas. For Leshoure is was it
games against Southern and Northern Illinois,
and for Williams there were none to throw out.
The comparisons:
|
Player |
Yr |
G |
Att Per gm |
Rush Yds per gm |
Rush TDs per Game |
Rush + Rec Yds per gm |
Yds Per Carr |
|
|
|
Leshoure |
2010 |
11 |
21.6 |
128.3 |
1.3 |
145.1 |
5.9 |
|
|
|
Ingram |
2009 |
11 |
22.0 |
128.1 |
1.2 |
150.7 |
5.8 |
|
|
|
R.Williams |
2009 |
12 |
22.5 |
127.3 |
1.6 |
141.2 |
5.6 |
|
|
I'm not sure there is one, or more,
categories on the table above that would make
one of these RBs stand out against another. All
played in "power" conferences, with the SEC
obviously tougher. After taking out the weaker
opponent games, and factoring in Ingram played a
tougher schedule...it's still hard to say one
stands out so much more than another.
Possibly also factor in that Alabama had a
much better team (and Julio Jones) and a
top notch offensive line, whereas Leshoure and
Williams played with more running QBs, so
opponents were likely to gear up/scheme for the
run against them. Leshoure and Williams faced
much more "8 in the box" than Ingram did I would
assume, I don't have data to prove it...but
watching tape of Illinois/Leshoure, they ran a
"wildcat" type system, looks like Virginia Tech
did too; just a little less than Illinois.
Statistically, Alabama threw the ball about 4
times more per game than Illinois, and 7 times
more than Virginia Tech (within the seasonal
comparisons). Not only did Alabama throw more,
they had a more efficient QB in Greg
McElroy...that would draw more defensive respect
for the pass, more respect than "wildcat" QB's
on Virginia tech and Illinois. All that to say
-- Ingram may have had a tougher schedule, but
possibly faced less run focused defenses...and
that's just conjecture on my part.
*Only Oklahoma State's Hunter Kendall
could maybe enter the equation as the top
on-field performers with this group (within our
system of various on-field performance metrics
that we analyze), but really
Leshoure-Ingram-Williams are the top on-field
performance metric RB's in our system for 2011.
One of the issues with this performance
comparison (above) might be that we cherry
picked the best year of their career...and for
Ingram and Williams, that was 2 years ago. Their
2010 season, did not go near as well -- likely
due to the injuries they sustained. If we used
just 2010 data, Leshoure would more walk-away
with the comparison. It may be more sound to
judge them all at their best, but what if the
injury has an effect going forward? Does that
put their prospect status in doubt, does it
lower their draft value? Where it lowers their
status for me is in the following comparisons --
the physical measurements and metrics.
Physical Measurements
and Metrics comparisons
What has many spooked on Mark Ingram
and Ryan Williams, is the terribly slow
performances they had in their speed trials at
the NFL Combine. Plenty of college RB have great
on-field performances/stats, but are exposed at
the next level if they' are not NFL-fast or
NFL-agile enough to evade the elite defensive
players in the NFL. The question in the weaker
Ingram and Williams Combine performances is --
was it injury induced, or is this reality?...and
that is a gigantic question.
Mark Ingram missed early parts of 2010
with a knee injury, played decent for most of
2010 and then (in theory) had time to
rest/recoup for the 2011 NFL Combine. Ingram was
recorded with very slow/red-flag type results in
the various dashes and agility drills at the NFL
Combine. At his pro-day workout, he was recorded
with slight improvement.
Ryan Williams battled hamstring
injuries in 2010, and had a terrible season
(compared to his 2009 season). Hamstring issues
are not debilitating (in theory after months to
rest), and yet Williams ran with very slow speed
times at the NFL Combine ...but had good
agility, vertical jump, broad jump measurements.
Williams ran faster at his pro-day a few weeks
later. Was Williams' slow day at the Combine a
fluke or reality?
Mikel Leshoure has no reported injury
issues, and he ran faster than Ingram/Williams
at the NFL Combine...but not historically great.
Not great, if you look through the lens of just
straight up speed. The other thing to consider
with Leshoure is, he is bigger than both
Ingram/Williams by 12-15 pounds respectively.
Leshoure for his size/frame, runs very well and
is very agile for that size. In the NFL speed
and agility with size matters.
Leshoure and Williams had very high end
measured vertical leaps and broad jumps, Ingram
was very underwhelming in those tests.
From my perspective, looking at the physical
data -- Leshoure is at minimum as fast and
strong as Ingram and Williams. I would add that
given Leshoure's bigger size and equal/better
strength (in the bench press)...that Mikel
Leshoure is the slightly more physically
impressive of the 3 RBs. If at minimum, we
judged them all equally on the physical and we
saw earlier that the on-field performances were
all in the same range...at the very least, I
would conclude that it would be hard to
definitively tell who is better among Ingram,
Williams and Leshoure -- and if that is the
case, why would I get worked up to waste draft
picks to draft Ingram if I wanted/needed a RB?
There is no rule that says all 3 of these guys
can't be NFL productive, so the smart money
would be to not jump out too early on one of
them and over-spend.
The NFL RB that is the
best match of Mikel Leshoure in our system:
Looking through the system for "power RBs"
that were physically mediocre-to-good straight
line OK/Good historically, with higher agility
metrics for their size, as well as "power RBs"
who had top on-field performance metrics in all
categories. The computer analysis sees Toby
Gerhart as the best match with some Shonn
Greene mixed in. If Leshoure measured out
just a little quicker in straight line speed
metrics, then Leshoure has a good amount in
common with LaDainian Tomlinson. *Please,
I am not saying Leshoure is the next LaDainian
Tomlinson...but there are a few things we can
see that run parallel between the 2 in our
system.
LEGEND FOR RATINGS:
- SPEED = a combination of speed
measurements from the NFL Combine/Pro-Days,
measured against our database on similar
WRs
- AGILITY = a combination of
agility test measurements from the NFL
Combine/Pro-Days, measured against our database on similar WRs
- POWER = a combination of
various physical measurements, measured
against our database on similar RBs
- HANDS = a combination of
performance metrics and physical metrics to
grade "hands" -- not only an ability to catch the ball
as a receiver, but for fumble potential as
well. A
unique/private metric of ours. We gave hands
a "grade", but receiving wasn't a huge part
of the analysis -- rushing/running ability
is what we focused on.
*school grade system, A+ being the best in
class historically all the way to F- as
historically the worst combination of metrics --
all based on what WRs with those measurements
did (or didn't do) in the NFL.
|
Name |
College |
Yr |
40-Yard |
Speed |
Agility |
Power |
Hands |
|
Leshoure, Mikel |
Illinois |
2011 |
4.56 |
B |
A- |
B |
C |
|
Gerhart, Toby |
Stanford |
2010 |
4.50 |
B+ |
A- |
B+ |
D+ |
|
Greene, Shonn |
Iowa |
2009 |
4.62 |
C |
B- |
C+ |
D |
Mikel Leshoure Overall
System Score = +1.045
* See this story for background on our system
scoring methodology for "Power RBs" --
NFL Draft 2011: Statistically Looking for Elite
"Power RBs", and Recent RB Historical Ratings -
Fantasy Football 2011
2011 NFL DRAFT Outlook
for Mikel Leshoure
On a statistical analysis and physical
profile, Leshoure (to us) is the safer pick
among he and Ingram/Williams. Leshoure having no
big injury history and just being physically
bigger of the 3, would make him the RB choice
for me...in a NFL Draft that doesn't appear to
have a ton of obvious choices.
I thought Leshoure might sneak into the late
1st Round last night, but he didn't. I don't
think he will last too long in Round #2. The
Patriots at #33 are in play I would think, and
then possibly a fall to Detroit at #44 is the
next likely. I would think for sure goes 2nd
Round.
We show Leshoure with an "elite" rating in
our system, based on all the data historically.
Our mathematical models have been right about
70%+ of the time, which is what we are shooting
for (actually shooting for 100%, but won't use a
system that doesn't produce 70%+ reliability).
At minimum, Leshoure is one to keep an eye on
depending upon the team/style he lands with. At
maximum, Leshoure may be the surprise RB of the
2011 Draft.
We will project Mikel Leshoure's 2011
Fantasy Football production in our 2011 "Big
Board" Draft Guide. The NFL season schedules are out
and the NFL Draft is almost upon us, so
the computers are geared up to start running
analysis on projecting players and situations
for 2011 -- our
2011 Fantasy
Football Draft Guide on sale this summer
(even if you don't play Fantasy Football you
might really enjoy this work) with
400+ players evaluated statistically for the
upcoming season!
Our Fantasy
Football Draft Guide is EVER-EVOLVING
!!!! Not like a stale magazine with outdated
data by the time it arrives on newsstands, and
is obsolete when the next big injury or
personnel move is made -- we update our player
projections and commentary as often as daily
(sometimes multiple times daily if news warrants
it)...we work just like your own personal "war
room" right up to Draft Day (see home page for
clips of some of last years work) and you can
access the e-Guide "at will" with your initial
purchase.
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
position.
By
