*An on-going series of
putting college QBs in our mathematical
analysis. We don’t have all the needed data
until the 2011 NFL Combine results are
completely in (including most Wonderlic scores
leaked), but we can assume (neutral) some of it
and we have all the game performance/statistics.
See this link for details
on the College QB rating system --
Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a
College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical
Formula
Colin Kaepernick had
the fastest recorded thrown football among all
QBs at the NFL Combine at 59 mph!
Colin Kaepernick had
one of the fastest 40-yard dash
times among all the "highly rated" QBs in at the NFL Combine.
Who cares?
Honestly, who cares?
Shouldn't we be more interested in whether a
prospect can play
the QB position and make smart/fast decisions at
the NFL level? Many seem to be more interested
in a QB's ability as a punt returner than the
historical tendencies to be a franchise QB...
We have game tape, we have
the data on passing metrics and performance
outcomes on all of these D-1 QBs. Why in the
world is foot speed such a big deal for
projecting a QB in this day and age? For that
matter, why do we care about arm speed? If you
have proven to be a good/great passer in
college, let's assume you can throw the ball
hard enough to succeed in the NFL. It's not
(usually) the arm that lets good/great college
QBs down, it's more a problem of the mind and
decision making. If you have great physical
attributes, but you aren't a very good decision
maker under-pressure or good/great game manager,
what does it ultimately matter (as a QB) how
fast you can run?
Can someone name a current
NFL QB drafted in the past 5-10 years that was a
sub-par or mediocre passer in college, that had
a gun for an arm, and was fleet of foot...and
thus was drafted by a "smart" NFL team and was
soon thereafter turned into a great QB? Sounds
like Peyton Manning's bio, right? Nope.
Maybe it's Drew Brees or Philip Rivers
I was thinking of...nahh? Maybe it is no one, no
current elite QB has that type of background.
"Smart" teams don't typically get sucked in by
the "mobile" QB with questionable passing
skills. Teams that draft the "mobile" QB with
questionable passing skills, looking for the
next "utopian" QB with Michael Vick's
running ability and the team will insert
(through their coaching genius) Joe Montana's
(not known for a "big" arm) mind, are left
holding a very expensive bag (just ask the
Titans).
"But what about
Donovan McNabb"? He wasn't drafted in
the past 10 years, but OK we'll play along --
McNabb was a very good passer in college
(somewhat to my surprise as I looked back at his
metrics). Much better than Kaepernick (and we'll
analyze that in a moment).
"What about Michael
Vick"? Vick was an awful passer his
entire NFL career until 2010. Before 2010 --
Vick had a career passer rating under 80.0,
never above a 3,000 yard passing in any season,
never more than 20 Passing TDs in any season,
and never above 56.4% Completion Percentage. If
some NFL team would like to take Kaepernick in
the 2nd Round as a "hot sleeper" and wait 9
years for him to have a breakout season, if that
is a successful business model to making
personnel decisions to run your company/team --
go right ahead. Taking Kaepernick with a high
draft pick is wasting the company's (teams)
resources. A big price to pay on a long shot
investment, that may not see dividends for
years....if ever.
The modern day elite QB, in
the modern day passing system; is not a
"running" QB. A great passer who can run is
something to consider, but a college QB known
more for his running ability primarily -- it
just doesn't translate to becoming an elite QB
in the NFL. I put Cam Newton, just
looking statistically, in the great passer and
great runner category -- however, I am waiting
for that Wonderlic score on his decision making
(and character I can't really quantify) before
our system would give him a complete future
endorsement. We (and many others) are working
feverishly to find that score out.
Brady, Manning, Brees,
Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, and Kurt Warner
-- a few of them are quick enough to escape a
pocket...but most of them are "slow as
molasses". Steve Young is the only hope
anyone in the "mobile QB camp" would have to
point towards as a highly mobile/big rushing
stats in college QB who then translated to the
NFL as an elite passing (HOF) QB. Steve Young's
college performance was a million miles ahead of
Colin Kaepernick's passing performance metrics
-- in Young's senior season he had a 71.3%
Completion Percentage, with 33 Passing TDs in 11
games. On a per game basis Kaepernick isn't in
the same stratosphere as Steve Young...and most
college QBs are not. Steve Young is a
once-in-a-lifetime combination of speed and
accuracy; Colin Kaepernick "is no Steve Young".
If Colin Kaepernick is this
great QB prospect that NFL Draft experts are trying to sell me on, then certainly he
would have destroyed all of his weaker WAC
conference opponents with his titillating
passing skills? Let's look at the "Two Colin
Kaepernick's" -- the one who stomps on weaker
teams and the other that flops in almost every
passing metric we have when the competition is
raised.
Kaepernick's scary passing splits
Colin Kaepernick played 14
games this season, 9 games against teams with
losing records or D-II teams (a lot of Eastern
Washington, Idaho, etc on the schedule) and he
played 5 games against
teams with a winning record (BYU, Hawaii, Fresno
State, Boise State, Boston College). Kaepernick
was a much different passing QB depending upon
the level of competition he was facing....
-
16 TDs with just 2 INTs vs.
losing record/D-II teams, but 5 TDs with 6 INTs
in 5 games against D-1 teams with a winning
record (a monster red-flag)
-
a 69.1% passer against
the lesser opponents, with a 10% drop-off to
58.6% against D-1 teams with a winning record
-
A TD pass for every
13.4 Pass Attempts against lesser opponents,
a TD pass for every 29.0 passes against the
D-1 winning record teams (a major red-flag in
our mathematical model)
Kaepernick fits the mold of
a nice athletic QB in a gimmick offense, taking
advantage of weak teams...but when it came time
to face the big boys (if BYU and Boise State
could be considered that), down his passing
metrics crashed.
Kaepernick vs. McNabb
I hear a lot of
McNabb-Kaepernick comparisons, when you look
back at McNabb's college performance
against his toughest competition/key
games/opponents with winning records -- McNabb
actually improved in our system as the
competition got tougher...and to my surprise
McNabb played a lot tougher schedule than I
thought "old school" Syracuse would have
(undefeated Tennessee, Michigan, Miami, Florida,
and more...). McNabb in key games we looked at:
-
59.4% Completion Pct
for McNabb (Kaepernick 58.6% in key games)
-
14 TD with 4 INT,
3.5-to-1 TD/INT ratio for McNabb (Kaepernick
0.83-to-1 TD/INT in key games)
-
14.1 Pass Attempts per
Passing TD for McNabb (Kaepernick 29.0 in
key games)
Kaepernick is nowhere near
McNabb in performance in college when looking
through the lens of their tougher opponents, and
Kaepernick's schedule was nowhere near as tough.
*and I am anything but a Donovan McNabb fan,
I just wanted to look at a similar recent
"mobile" QB who "made it"/was successful as a
passer in the NFL, I would not count McNabb as
an NFL "elite".
Kaepernick's historically bad passing TD metrics
The more recently drafted
QBs, who went on to become NFL elite QBs, all
had a certain tight range of pass attempts per passing TD
in their
final year in college when we isolated their
performance metrics to just analyzing the output
in
tougher games/winning record competition
(weighted for difficulty in our mathematical
system). Kaepernick has a Pass Attempt per Pass
TD metrics right in-line with future NFL bust
QB, and most all of Kaepernick's were played in
a horrible defensive WAC conference.
Of the QBs that we have
analyzed (most drafted in the past decade) to
date with worse Pass Attempt per TD metrics than
Kaepernick in our system are (looking at
performance results weighted for
schedule/opponent in our analysis):
-
Kevin O'Connell San
Diego State
-
John
Skelton, Fordham
-
Jevan Snead, Ole Miss
-
Charlie Whitehurst,
Clemson
-
Matt Leinart, USC
-
Zac Robinson, Oklahoma
State
-
Blaine
Gabbert, Missouri
-
Jake Locker,
Washington
-
Scott Tolzien,
Wisconsin
-
JaMarcus Russell, LSU
Kaepernick's historically bad INT metrics
Not only did Kaepernick not
show much propensity for throwing touchdowns, he
had a higher than normal propensity to throw a
pick as well. Kaepernick's interception metrics
against tougher competition, is at one of the
worst rates of any QB drafted in the past 5+
years that we have analyzed. We have a few
different ways we look at INT propensity/issues
in our metrics, and there are 6 QBs who
continually come up bad in most all phases of
the data we have:
NFL QB
that Colin Kaepernick most compares to statistically...
The two most likely
statistical performance and physical stature
matches in our system are Rex Grossman and
Kevin O'Connell. O'Connell is
probably the best matchup, as they are both
more similar in height, and both with decent
speed (4.63 in the 40 for O'Connell -- both QBs
a little over 10 rushing attempts per game in
their final college season) and both played in a non-power
conference in college. Both threw more INTs than TDs when
the competition was tougher. A clip/glimpse at
just a few of our system's comparison data on
the 3 QB likely matches:
-
"Adj" means just key
games/better competition -- weighted for
strength of opponent (our own proprietary
work, weighted for strength of opponent)
-
"per 35 att" numbers
are the key games, weighted for strength of
opponent and then translated into an average
as if every QB had an equal 35 Pass Attempts
per game all the time, and thus what would
each QB produce (in college) if they had 35 passes per
game based on the key games their final
college season. In an attempt to somewhat
equalize the college performance and show
you what our systems sees.
|
QB |
Yr |
College |
H |
W |
adj Comp Pct |
Adj Yds per Comp |
adj Pass per TD |
adj Pass Per INT |
|
Yds per game 35 Att |
TDs per game 35 Att |
INTs per game 35 Att |
|
Kaepernick, Colin |
2010 |
Nevada |
76.6 |
225 |
57.8% |
11.7 |
28.1 |
24.0 |
|
237.5 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
|
Grossman, Rex |
2002 |
Florida |
73.3 |
217 |
57.4% |
11.3 |
28.3 |
27.3 |
|
226.4 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
|
O'Connell, Kevin |
2007 |
SD State |
77.0 |
225 |
60.6% |
10.5 |
56.3 |
46.4 |
|
222.3 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
Colin
Kaepernick Overall Score =
-0.078
*See original work
and scoring tables from the following link
--
Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a
College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical
Formula
Kaepernick (pre-Wonderlic
scores) has already sunk to the lowest of the 16
QBs we have scored on our system for 2011. To be fair,
that includes Andrew Luck who isn't actually
eligible for the Draft. Unfortunately for Kaepernick,
he is also
below Terrell Pryor -- who is also not eligible.
Kaepernick is the classic looks good on film,
can run fast and throws hard...and some NFL team
will grab him too early and think that they will "teach
him" in their system (see Tim Tebow for
further reference of that statement...).
If an NFL team starts
running the wishbone or "wildcat"
again, maybe I like
Colin Kaepernick's speed (as well as I would
also
like Pat White in the NFL...how did that
work?). Outside of an occasional gimmick play, I don't care
about arm speed or foot speed for a QB, as it
does not translate to becoming a future elite
NFL QB.
Kaepernick "wowed"
everybody when he ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at the
NFL Combine. College QBs we have on our records
that are a similar profile to Kaepernick's speed
and height in the past decade (QBs who are 6'3
and taller, and also ran +/- .10 time in the 40
compared to Kaepernick's 4.53):
-
Vince Young, Texas
-
Kyle Boller, Cal
-
Kent Smith, Central
Michigan
-
Kevin O'Connell, SD
State
-
Mike McMahon, Rutgers
-
Dennis Dixon, Oregon
-
Josh McCown, Sam
Houston State
-
Isaiah Stanback,
Washington
-
Dan LeFevour, Central
Michigan
-
Josh Johnson, SD State
-
Stephen McGee, Texas
A&M
*Michael Vick not in
that 4.43-4.63 speed range, he ran an amazing
4.33
A lot of "love his
mobility" and "can move around in the
pocket" guys there; what did it ultimately
translate to?
For an NFL team to roll the dice
on Kaepernick as a
5th-6th-7th Round QB, it's worth
the cheaper gamble (I guess), but if Kaepernick
gets reached for in the 2nd-3rd Round (which I have
a funny feeling he will be)...that's a poor
business decision
for the drafting team. If Kaepernick is ever is
ready for the NFL, it will take 3-5+ years
grooming at best. If you want to find out who
the "dumb" personnel department or "poor
business minded" teams in the NFL are, watch who
reaches for Colin Kaepernick early in the
Draft...he is the ultimate draft day QB "trap
door". (Beware Cincinnati, Kaepernick as a high
pick has you and Oakland written all over it).
Kaepernick's best scenario
to me is -- if he gets an opportunity to have a
Brad
Smith, Ray Lucas or Hines Ward like career as
a "QB
turned something else useful". Outside of
a few highlight reel plays and looking good
throwing the ball in gym shorts, there is
nothing about Kaepernick's actual passing ability that
should get anyone too excited as an answer to
their teams QB woes; especially immediately.
Tavaris Jackson and
Billy
Joe Toliver had/have some of the strongest
throwing arms I think I've
ever seen, and it doesn't mean anything in the
NFL without accuracy, great decision making and
instinct. Michael Vick and Vince Young
are maybe the best running/throwing QBs in the
last decade in the NFL -- and neither of them
have ever been considered a good passing QB in
the NFL, nor have they taken a team to the
promised land. Kaepernick's physical
measureables are awesome....way better than
Tom Brady's and Peyton Manning's, no
denying that....but what do great physical
measureables alone ever lead to for an NFL
team's franchise-QB dilemma?
It's all about the passing
ability in the NFL. The passing metrics on
Kaepernick would say he doesn't have what it
takes to be an elite NFL QB. Take a shot in the
5-7th Round if you like. Using a 1st-3rd Round
pick on him is a really bad business decision.
By
