My first thought when this deal was announced
-- "I can't believe it, what a disastrous
trade for the Falcons". The history of
highly selected WR's is (typically) such
an awful return on investment...or as a return
on anything, that I couldn't comprehend it at
first. *If you don't agree with that, please
consider our following previous research article
--
NFL Draft 2011 - Why are you so sure Julio Jones
and A.J. Green are NFL "Locks"? A Look at the
Comedy that is WR Draft Picks in the NFL -
Fantasy Football 2011
After I thought about it more, an odd thought
came across my mind...the history (of success)
of draft picks in general is so bad/mixed,
that maybe in a weird, "Jedi-mind trick" way --
this is not as bad as I first thought. If the
Falcons would just screw up the picks anyway
(and it's not just the Falcons, it could be most
any team), then did they really give up anything
that valuable?
I'm picking on the Falcons, but I suspect I
could do this with most teams...just to look at
recent history, I went back and looked at just
the 2009 Atlanta Falcons draft selections (I
know, their 2008 was much better...more on that
is a second). I did not look at 2010, because it
was too recent. Looking at just 2009 may not be
fair, but I thought it was interesting. The
Atlanta Falcons 2009 draft was:
- Peria Jerry, DT (#24)
- William Moore, S (#55)
- Christopher Owens, CB (#90)
- Lawrence Sidbury, DE (#125)
- William Middleton, CB (#138)
- Garrett Reynolds, OT (#156)
- Spencer Adkins, ILB (#176)
- Vance Walker, DT (#210)
Not a lot of household names on there.
However, in the NFL, that doesn't mean they
weren't valuable picks...just because we don't
recognize their names. Honestly, I remember
Peria Jerry...and no one else. I decided to
look at each player to get idea of their value
in terms of games started over the past 2
seasons. A few numbers on this collective group
over the past 2 years, from the best I could
gather:
- The Falcons have played 33 games over
the past 2 seasons (1 playoff game)
- 8 players x 33 games played possible =
264 games
- This collective Falcons 2009 draft class
has participated in 135 games (51.1%) in the
past 2 seasons
- This collective Falcons 2009 draft class
has started 28 games (10.6%) in the past 2
seasons
- 3.3 games started per player in 2 years,
1.6 games started per player, per season on
average
- Only 1 player has started more than 10
games total = William Moore
Not a ton of productivity so far. Basically,
1 starter out 8 selections (to date) from the
2009 Falcons draft class. Injuries (like
Peria Jerry) are unfortunate, but it's is
still a lack of team productivity or lack of
return on investment. Speaking of
investments/money, let's look at the cost of the
2009 Atlanta Falcons Draft class (I rounded
numbers, and trusted various places for this
info...hoping close to right):
- $11M in guaranteed money (I know this is
amortized, but it is money spent/committed
none the less; no matter what)
- Approximately $3.0M in payroll over 2
seasons
- $14M total investment (so far?, signing
bonuses, etc paid upfront)
- 135 Falcons games participated in by the
2009 draft class / $14M = $104,000 spent per
player, per game actually participated in
(so far)
- 28 Falcons games started by the 2099
draft class / $6.7M = $500K spent per
player, per start (so far)
It would appear that the Falcons have landed
1 starter (Moore) in the 2009 NFL Draft, and it
wouldn't appear that they have landed any future
NFL superstars. Payroll and guaranteed money of
$14M spent/committed (so far), and they have (to
this point) landed a starting Safety (who has
started for 1 of his 2 seasons). How valuable
are draft picks anyway?
It's unfair take just one draft class
selectively and make big assumptions, but I
thought it was an interesting dose of reality to
look a more decent draft class as an example of
what could be judged -- a waste of time. We get
all worked up about our favorite team's
draft...and it could turn out like the Falcons
2009. However, look back another (2008) and you
find a "home run" Draft by anyone's standards.
In 2008, the Falcons "knocked it out of the
park" yielding -- Matt Ryan, Sam Baker,
Curtis Lofton, Kroy Biermann, Thomas DeCoud...5
starters out of 11 draft picks, and a potential
elite/franchise QB included. Now how valuable
are draft picks?
*Yes, I have seen the "trade value matrix"
that assigns points to each pick/slot. I would
argue that it is wildly out of date, obsolete,
and lacks no business/payroll reality. it
assumes a #1 pick is worth more than all other
picks, but from a business sense most teams are
trying to do anything to get rid of the #1
pick...so what is a #1 pick really worth?
What the Falcons/Browns
trade really looks like:
Let's look at this trade after assigning the
proper names to the trade, including one twist
-- the Browns received both 2011 and 2012 picks
from the Falcons in this deal. For 2012, the
Browns received the Falcons 1st and 4th Round
picks. I theorize that they will use these picks
to acquire Kevin Kolb -- who I think is a
potential franchise QB, your thoughts may be
different. Also keep in mind, the Browns flipped
the Falcons #27 to move up to take Phil
Taylor, so we have to factor in the
ramifications of that. For fun let's insert
Kevin Kolb into this deal...and it would
look like:
BROWNS gave up (ATL, KC):
- Julio Jones, WR (#6) to ATL
- Justin Houston, DL (#70) to KC
(an extra pick given to move up in the 1st
Round)
BROWNS get:
- Kevin Kolb, QB (for fun, with
both the 2012 picks of ATL)
- Phil Taylor, DT (moved up from
KC)
- Greg Little, WR (#59, was ATL's
2nd Round pick)
- Owen Marecic, FB (#124 was ATL's
4th Round pick)
Let's say for a moment that the 2 DT's
(Taylor and Houston) wash/cancel/equal each
other out (that may be unfair, and who knows in
reality). If the deal is condensed to Kolb,
Little, Marecic for Julio Jones...who got
the best of that deal? If all the other players
selected by the Browns "washed out", would you
do just Kevin Kolb for Julio Jones?
I absolutely believe Kevin Kolb is a
potential elite QB, and well beyond any QB taken
in the first 2 Rounds of the 2011 draft....so
for me just Kolb for Jones straight up, I would
do in a heartbeat. Franchise QBs are the rarest
of commodity, really athletic WRs are available
all over...and are usually more trouble than
they are worth; and are usually a bad return on
investment on a number of fronts...even if great
players.
The Falcons didn't need to gamble on, or
otherwise maneuver for, a QB, but is all that
draft pick value given up really worth Julio
Jones? I would argue Greg Little may be
as good, or better, or just close to a WR as
Julio Jones in terms of potential NFL
productivity. If Little is just really good and
Jones is a pro-bowl WR, then all it takes is for
one other player in the deal to be good for the
Browns and this deal made sense. If several
players are good for the Browns, then the deal
may be a home run. If they ultimately walk away
with a franchise QB for the next 5-10 years, it
would be legendary.
When I put the names to this deal and stare
at it, it doesn't look as daunting (or dumb) as
I first thought. However, as an NFL GM, I would
much rather have 5 "lottery tickets" than just
the 1. Julio Jones would have to be a
transcendent type player for me to even consider
a deal like this, and for me he is not. If the
Falcons wanted to balance off Roddy White,
they could have selected Leonard Hankerson
in the 3rd Round, Greg Little in the 2nd
Round, or Torrey Smith in the 2nd
Round...and maybe none of these other 2011 WRs
wouldn't have been as good as Julio Jones,
but I think they could be...and so did a few
other analysts, and if so -- then the relative
value of Jones (supply and demand) was not worth
what the Falcons spent on it.
Better to pick high one
time, or several times later in the NFL Draft?
Many of you will understand this next point
(especially the entrepreneurs, business
operations managers and money managers out
there), a few readers might have a bad knee-jerk
reaction initially...but take a second a second
to think about the full business aspect of this
next statement (and we don't know what the new
NFL draft pick payroll rules we be, so think of
existing rules). From a business sense, I
could/would make the argument that a #27 pick
overall is more valuable than #6 pick overall.
Most people equate a high pick with a better
"opportunity". I look at it from a
business/return-on-investment aspect -- for what
you have had to spend in payroll for a top pick
(and the relative value they bring), it (to me)
makes a ton more business sense to pick later in
the 1st Round -- it's cheaper, and just as often
the actual real best players are sitting
available. I would suspect that in their "heart
of hearts" -- Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli,
and Bill Polian (just to name a few)
would trade a #6 overall pick for a #27 overall
pick straight up (they wouldn't in reality,
because in reality they'll get more/additional
picks to do it...like the Browns just
extracted). Consider the 2010 Draft picks and
contracts (contract data from various reporting
agencies, hopefully close to right):
- #6 pick in 2010 Russell Okung,
$48.5M over 6 years, $29M guaranteed
- #27 pick in 2010 Devin McCourty,
$13.2M over 5 years, $7.3M guaranteed
Is Okung $35M better than McCourty over 5-6
years (time will tell)? $22M guaranteed money
better? Will the Patriots find a offensive
lineman as good/close to as good as Okung in the
2nd or 3rd or 4th Round of any draft...or off
the waiver wire, for much less payroll?
It's why Belichick is always trading back in
the NFL Draft, it's not that he has an awesome
track record of players selected as of
late...the NFL Draft real genius
may actually be measured in the near
"un-measurable", measured in players not
selected/over-paid for; and that's harder to
see/conceptualize. Belichick/Polian, etc squeeze
great return on investment from their roster,
they don't typically fall in love/lust with
prospects in the top-10 and impulse spend their
way up in the draft order. Example...They get a
Randy Moss when he's cheaper, they trade
a Randy Moss before he costs them too
much, and/or right before his skills erode, and
pressures their overall payroll flexibility.
In the long run, the story and names involved
in this trade will write itself...but
philosophically (actual names aside), 5 later
picks for 1 "high pick" in the modern day
business of the NFL is a deal you almost have to
make every time (unless an absolute elite,
Andrew Luck type QB is the "one" pick they
are coming after). When you consider the value
of the payroll spend and talent available later
in the Draft, it is the smarter money. If
Julio Jones is the next Jerry Rice,
then it won't be judged as wise for the
Browns...it will be mocked. Names aside though,
this is a great deal for the Browns; and not so
swift for the Falcons...philosophically.
I would be happier when my favorite team
makes great "value", long-term business savvy
moves that most people would hardly notice, and
I'm not as excited when my favorite team makes a
top-10 overall pick that ESPN and NFL Network
slobbers all over, showing me a 20 second/5-play
highlight reel loop in which the player selected
looks "awesome" (don't all the players look
great in their 20-second highlight loop?). It
somehow seems all those "awesome" top-10 picks
are being made over and over by the same teams
every year....
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