*An on-going series of
putting college QBs in our mathematical
analysis. We don’t have all the needed data
until the 2011 NFL Combine results are
completely in (including most Wonderlic scores
leaked), but we can assume (neutral) some of it
and we have all the game performance/statistics.
See this link for details
on the College QB rating system --
Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a
College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical
Formula
Honestly, why do we do this to ourselves? Or,
maybe it is more accurate to ask -- why is the
Draft Media doing this to us?
We see this every so often, and it never
translates to anything tangible -- writers grab
a tall/"big arm" QB with no major track record
of on-field success (accuracy, dominance, etc)
and assume/hopes "he fits a QB profile" and they
just thrust them into their pre-draft analysis
as a "sleeper" or "keep your eye on". It makes
the draft "guru" sound clever, and I think they
think (subconsciously) -- "everyone talks
about Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton,
if I mention a lesser name/small-school
prospect...it will make me appear smart".
This leaves fans hearing nonsensical positives
(like "big arm" or "makes all the throws") about
lesser known prospects, potentially getting
excited about a prospect, and maybe even
mentioning it to friends or in chat rooms...to
echo wanting to be "smart" about the draft as
well, and it takes on a mini-viral life of its
own from there.
Often there are lesser known prospects that
deserve a higher status, but with a little bit
of homework you can rule in/out some of these
prospects fairly easily.
I'm sorry in advance to my friends in Idaho,
but Nathan Enderle has virtually no
business being discussed as a serious NFL
prospect. I hate to be so blunt, but this is
beyond obvious when looking at his on-field
performance metrics and making historical
comparisons. If Enderle is going on to an NFL
career, it will take a ton of development time
to possibly have a career as a backup at best.
Many readers have emailed in the past week,
asking about "when the Nathan Enderle
report would be out". When I had started
researching QBs to report out on for the 2011
NFL Draft in January, I ran some quick numbers
on all the secondary QB prospects to see if any
names jumped out -- QB prospects such as T.J.
Yates, Tyrod Taylor, Chris Dieker, Adam
Froman, and Nathan Enderle. These QBs
either caught my attention looking at just a
couple quick litmus tests in our system, or
caught my attention by the number of emails I
received asking questions about them. T.J.
Yates caught my attention from some
positives on our quick litmus tests, the rest of
them I could tell quickly it was not going to go
well...so I put their research aside for
"later".
In the last few days, I received a small
flurry of Nathan Enderle questions; so I
decided to finish the full research. After going
through it fully, I am left speechless. I have
no idea why Nathan Enderle is a NFL Draft
prospect. I mean, I know why he is -- tall, big
arm, yada-yada. I am just stunned that anyone
could have looked at his 2010 performance on any
level and concluded that this is a "sleeper" QB
prospect. Enderle's metrics are screaming that
this is not a serious NFL QB prospect, and/or is
beyond a major developmental project QB at best.
Enderle's massive
struggles against better competition in 2010
Enderle faced 4 teams with a winning record
in 2010 (theoretically his toughest competition
to face) -- Boise State, Hawaii, Nebraska, and
Fresno State. Enderle's stats in those 4 games:
- 53.2% Completion percentage, no
individual games over 58%...a major red-flag
- 165.7 yards passing per game, with a
high of 207 yards -- and this with 34+
passing attempts in every game
- 2 Passing TDs and 10 INTs...that ratio
is absolutely a massive red-flag
Granted, Idaho at Nebraska (in which Enderle
had 5 INTs) is a rough matchup. If you throw
that Nebraska game out, then against the top-3
teams in his conference Enderle threw 1 TD and 5
INTs in 3 games...as well as maintaining under
55% Completion Percentage with low passing
yardage per game, per attempt, per anything...
Red-Flag mania
Nearly every on-field performance metric in
our system came up as a red-flag for Enderle --
only Jevon Snead (2009 Ole Miss) and
Zac Robinson (2009 Oklahoma State) were
rated as bad, historically, in our system.
Enderle was stronger against weak WAC and
non-conference opponents, similar to fellow WAC
QB prospect Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick
also flopped against tougher competition in the
WAC conference, but nowhere near as bad as
Enderle did.
I would bet the house against Enderle
becoming an NFL elite QB. Name for me the recent
QB's who were really raw and highly inaccurate
in college, but were then "trained" or "coached
up" to become an NFL elite...or even very good?
It's not the Tom Brady, Peyton Manning,
Philip Rivers "story"...to name just a few.
No current NFL elite QB was a highly inaccurate
and throwing as many INTs and TDs in college and
then "learned" at the NFL level and "bingo" a
new "elite" QB!...it just doesn't happen these
days. *Matt Cassel never played in
college, so we don't know what he was capable of
(not saying he is elite by any stretch, but just
to acknowledge he has an "odd" background for a
starting NFL QB)
NFL QB
that Nathan Enderle most compares to statistically
in our system...
The two most likely
statistical performance and physical stature
matches in our system were the aforementioned
Jevan Snead and
Zac Robinson. Those 2 plus Enderle make
up are 3 lowest rated QBs in our system of
all-time at this point. Enderle is the 2nd worst
of all our QBs studied to date, only trailing
Snead.
-
"Adj" means just key
games/better competition -- weighted for
strength of opponent (our own proprietary
work, weighted for strength of opponent)
-
"per 35 att" numbers
are the key games, weighted for strength of
opponent and then translated into an average
as if every QB had an equal 35 Pass Attempts
per game all the time, and thus what would
each QB produce (in college) if they had 35 passes per
game based on the key games their final
college season. In an attempt to somewhat
equalize the college performance and show
you what our systems sees.
|
QB |
Yr |
College |
H |
W |
adj Comp Pct |
Adj Yds per Comp |
adj Pass per TD |
adj Pass Per INT |
x |
Yds per game 35 Att |
TDs per game 35 Att |
INTs per game 35 Att |
|
Enderle, Nathan |
2010 |
Idaho |
76.1 |
240 |
54.2% |
10.2 |
35.0 |
17.5 |
|
193.2 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
|
Robinson, Zac |
2009 |
Oklahoma State |
74.5 |
214 |
51.8% |
9.7 |
31.8 |
14.5 |
|
176.4 |
1.1 |
2.4 |
|
Snead, Jevan |
2009 |
Ole Miss |
75.0 |
219 |
45.7% |
13.1 |
70.3 |
12.2 |
|
209.2 |
0.5 |
2.9 |
Nathan Enderle Overall Score =
-0.573
*See original work
and scoring tables from the following link
--
Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a
College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical
Formula
2011 NFL DRAFT Outlook
for Nathan Enderle
I wouldn't be shocked if Enderle wasn't
drafted, but I know a tall/big-arm QB prospect
is like a "month to a flame" description that
will captivate some team on Day-2 or 3 of the
Draft. Enderle is a major, major project looking
at it statistically...and I know people are
going to say, "big arm", "has a lot
heart", "came from a pro style offense",
"hard-worker", etc -- but there are so
many better/interesting secondary QB prospects
to roll-the-dice on above Enderle; T.J.
Yates, Taylor Potts, Greg McElroy to name a
few (I'm not endorsing any of them, just saying
if you want to gamble later in the draft).
We have to be incredibly concerned about
Enderle's on-field decision making ability
looking through his 2010 performance against
stiffer competition and his overall career
numbers, especially given the weak conference he
plays in. I would pass on even taking a gamble
here, unless it was as an undrafted free-agent.
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