*An on-going series of putting college QBs in our mathematical analysis. We don’t have all the needed data until the 2011 NFL Combine results are completely in (including most Wonderlic scores leaked), but we can assume (neutral) some of it and we have all the game performance/statistics.

See this link for details on the College QB rating system --  Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

I'm with you, who is Chris Dieker?

Is he really an NFL Draft QB prospect or just a made up name? Our algorithm for projecting College QBs to the NFL is not projecting him as a future NFL star, but Dieker has a few statistical tendencies in our system that show he might have a shot in the NFL and at least is a name that should be on your radar screen if he is grabbed by your favorite team late in the 2011 NFL Draft. A quick snapshot on Chris Dieker:

First, what will put Dieker on the NFL Draft map is his size -- he is 6'5, 230 pounds. A "Blaine Gabbert a-like" on size. Of course the question is -- can he translate to the NFL? Dieker's resume:

• Dieker went to smaller Southern Illinois, so that would already be a knock/bias against him for many...but no more so than knocking Joe Flacco (Delaware), Ben Roethlisberger (Miami, OH), Tony Romo, (Eastern Illinois) or this year's higher rated small school QB -- Pat Devlin (Delaware).

• In 2008 (Sophomore), Dieker started for the first time leading SIU to a 9-3 record, led them to their conference championship and a bid the FCS playoffs. Posting 16 TDs and 10 INTs on 57.1% a Comp Pct.

• In 2009 (Junior), Dieker's season was cut short by a broken collarbone. Prior to the injury, he had led SIU to a (6-1) record and had thrown 10 TDs with 4 INTs on 58.4% Comp Pct.

• In 2010 (Senior), Dieker and SIU had high hopes as a preseason Top-5 in FCS/D-II -- but they had a disappointing (5-6) season. Dieker's stats were OK, but down from prior years with 15 TDs and 11 INTs.

• All total (19-9) record with 41 TDs and 25 INTs.

• Prior to his senior season, Dieker received an invitation to the Manning (Peyton and Eli) Passing Academy for nations top Senior to-be QBs.

Dieker has the NFL size and also is noted for a having a "big arm"...all things that scouts love. The question mark has been, is he accurate enough to take a step to the next level? Our analysis of passing metrics in key games/vs. tougher opponents shows that Dieker has the tendency to make bad decisions. The worst 10 QBs in our system to date for Pass Attempts to INT metrics are:

1. Jevan Snead, Ole Miss

2. Tony Romo, Eastern Illinois

3. Colt Brennan, Hawaii

4. Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State

5. Caleb Hanie, Colorado State

6. Chris Dieker, Southern Illinois

7. Terrell Pryor, OSU-2010 (did not declare for the Draft)

8. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada

9. David Garrard, East Carolina

10. Rex Grossman, Florida

 

The QB Chris Dieker most compares to statistically...

Dieker's advanced passing metrics in his final college season compares with two unique QBs -- Caleb Hanie and Tony Romo. The best match in our system is Chicago Bears backup QB Caleb Hanie (hey, he looked good in the 2nd half of the 2010 NFC Championship game). However, Hanie is likely a future spot starter at best and a capable backup for life. Especially troubling for Hanie projecting to the NFL is that he stands 6'1 (a major red-flag to becoming a good/great NFL QB is being below 6'2). Dieker is more NFL prototypical/perfect at 6'5. Dieker also has some metrics in common with a former no-name, undrafted, small college QB named Tony Romo. However, the match is more based on their inaccuracy metrics and small school background.

• "Adj" means just key games/better competition -- weighted for strength of opponent (our own proprietary work, weighted for strength of opponent)

• "per 35 att" numbers are the key games, weighted for strength of opponent and then translated into an average as if every QB had an equal 35 Pass Attempts per game all the time, and thus what would each QB produce (in college) if they had 35 passes per game based on the key games their final college season. In an attempt to somewhat equalize the college performance and show you what our systems sees.

QB	Yr	College	H	W	adj Comp Pct	Adj Yds per Comp	adj Pass per TD	adj Pass Per INT		Yds per game 35 Att	TDs per game 35 Att	INTs per game 35 Att
Dieker, Chris	2010	So Illinois	77.0	230	58.9%	10.9	26.7	26.7		225.7	1.3	1.3
Hanie, Caleb	2007	Colorado State	73.1	221	62.0%	11.8	21.2	22.1		255.9	1.6	1.6
Romo, Tony	2003	Eastern Illinois	74.0	220	63.8%	10.2	15.5	19.9		228.6	2.3	1.8

 

Chris Dieker Overall Score = 0.498  *See original work and scoring tables from the following link -- Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

Dieker scored mediocre in our system, but looking back at the details -- it is a shaky/soft rating, as he missed a few red-flag metric cutoffs narrowly, had he hit any of them he would have sunk much farther in our ratings. Dieker has the arm and the size, likely enough physical stature to possibly be a 6-7th Round Draft pick. If you see him jump up into a 4th-5th Round pick, he would have had to have done something special at a private workout. We may never know Dieker's Wonderlic score. Right now we have a neutral Wonderlic number in our algorithm, but an actual Wonderlic score that is weak will drop him into a very bad place in our ratings.

Dieker is a QB to know about, but I do not think he is a QB to get fully over-excited about until we see more Pro-Day and any private workout info.

 

Of the 2011 QBs we have done full reports on so far, our current algorithm rankings to be a future NFL elite are:

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford (not eligible) *Report not done yet

2. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa (probabilities point toward a possible NFL elite)

3. Christian Ponder, Florida State (if totally medically clear, see him again below)

4. Andy Dalton, TCU

5. **Greg McElroy, Alabama (QB's from McElroy down are rated as no/very low statistical probability to be a future NFL elite QB in our system, and a much higher bust possibility)

6. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas

7. Christian Ponder, Florida State (with injury issues, see him again above)

8. Cam Newton, Auburn

9. Chris Dieker, So Illinois

10. Jake Locker, Washington

11. Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State (not eligible) *Report not done yet

12. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada

 

 

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