*our "Big WRs" are defined as 6'0+ and 205+ pounds,
or 6'2+ no matter what weight
**You may enjoy an article on the overall
statistical problem with drafting WRs, which is
a forerunner to these individual player reports
--
NFL Draft 2011 - Why are you so sure Julio Jones
and A.J. Green are NFL "Locks"? A Look at the
Comedy that is WR Draft Picks in the NFL -
Fantasy Football 2011
I am really digging myself into a deep hole
with A.J. Green fans. Again, before the angers
boils over...please note -- I think A.J. Green
is a solid NFL WR prospect, and will likely be a decent
pro. I just think that Green is not a likely
future elite NFL WR, and thus not worthy of a
high 1st Round selection. Green is a dime-a-dozen
WR physically (to me), having a few
"red-flag" physical measureables that (historically) has
led to college WRs to struggle in becoming a
future star in the NFL (and a potential bust). *more detail on our research report of A.J.
Green --
NFL Draft 2011 - Statistical Analysis of WR A.J.
Green - Fantasy Football 2011
If you would agree that A.J. Green is
a future
"Ok-to-Good" WR at best (and I'm not
sure many are there with us...), then you wouldn't want to
waste a Top-5 Draft pick and a ton of
money on a WR skill-set that you could get with a nice
(cheaper) free-agent WR signing. I would much rather take a
more uniquely physically built WR with a later
pick...and gamble on a cheaper upside.
The 3 WR's I'm about to discuss are all likely
2nd-4th Round selections, but in our regression
analysis of historical WR translation from
college-to-the-NFL, our system rates these 3 WRs slightly
above A.J. Green. All 3 of these WRs have a few signs
of
potential greatness, but all 3 with
flaws/baggage as well. They are not worthy
(because of the baggage or question marks) of a
1st Round selection from a business perspective,
but could pan out better than most/all of the
"unquestioned" 1st Round Mock Draft WRs...and
for a much cheaper spin of the roulette wheel
later in the draft (lower risk/higher reward).
I am lumping all 3 of these WRs together for
a somewhat bizarre reason. They are all "bigger"
WRs at 6'2+, and that is a common thread
-- but the thing that caught my eye is...they all
had only/exactly 5 receiving TDs in their final college
season, with each one of them playing 13 games each
their final season. Now, 5 receiving TDs sounds
silly as the basis for anything (but, there will
be more analysis, just hold tight...). The reason I
bring this up is that most fans would glance at the
season totals and see just 5 TDs...they
would typically move on from considering these 3
WRs as serious
NFL prospects (plus they are rarely, if ever,
mentioned in the media). I
would definitely be turned off by this at first
glance as well, however there is something
hidden within this low TD production for 2 of
these WRs that may make them a little more intriguing
(and potentially great 2nd-5th Round Draft
value).
Let's analyze these "Big WRs" in greater
detail and put the 5 TD scenario in perspective,
and perhaps you will be impressed by one or two
of these particular "Big WRs" because of it....
Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh)
is a physical "monster" of a WR. Standing 6'4+
and 228 pounds, with huge hands and decent
vertical speed (very decent for his size);
Baldwin grades out historically great on some
key physical metrics. However, there is an issue
with Baldwin registering just 5 TDs in his final
season....the issue, statistically speaking, is
that it stinks. A terrible performance
statistically/historically among college WRs
translating to the NFL as our system looks it
over for strength of opponent, style of passing
game, QB worked with, etc.
Why are Baldwin's 5 TDs last season so bad?
Baldwin played on a team that had a decent QB (Tino
Sunsersi) who threw for 16 TDs to 9 INTs
this past season, and
had a 64.5% Completion Percentage as well. The Pitt
Offense had over 27+ Pass
Attempts per game in 2010, and yet that
only resulted in just 5 TDs for Baldwin all season.
Baldwin barely led his team in total receptions
(53 to 43) and had mediocre yardage (822) on the
season as well (did have 1,111 the year prior).
From a single season perspective, Baldwin's 2010
performance metrics generate red-flag issues
comparing it to past history in our WR database.
Baldwin has just 16 Rec TDs in 35 career
games at Pitt; with his size -- it should have
been a lot more. Baldwin has red-flags for
performance all over (a la Julio Jones), as well as red-flags on
very "bad" agility metrics -- both are tell-tale
problems for translating to the NFL. However,
Baldwin is still one of
the biggest, strongest, most physical WRs
available in this Draft. As for his reported character
issues...I can't quantify that, but it seems a
little scary as well. Baldwin's reputation as a
"diva" is gaining momentum, and was
cleared/dropped of charges for misdemeanor
assault/harassment in 2009.
Greg Little (North Carolina) is
perhaps the strongest, most physical WR available
in this year's NFL Draft. Little had an amazing
(for a WR, or most any skill position) 27 Bench
Press reps at the NFL Combine, he is also 6'2+
and a solid 231 pounds...all that size with
decent vertical speed, but unusually high (for
his size, or any size) agility metrics. Greg
Little's major issue is that he was suspended
for the entire
2010 season due to an investigation on improper conduct and benefits
received after his Junior season.
When we discuss Little's stat productivity, it is in the context of
his 2009 (his final full season).
Greg Little fared better than Jonathan
Baldwin with his 5 receiving TDs, relatively
speaking. Little was paired with
UNC QB T.J. Yates, who is a decent pro prospect
now...but wasn't that developed in 2009. Yates
(2009) did complete 60%+ of his passes, but also
threw 15 INTs with his 14 TDs. Yates wasn't that
great of a QB (at that point), so Little's
performance was a
little hamstrung by the passing game -- his 5 TDs
within the context of just 14 passing TDs thrown
on the season is not that bad a ratio. Little may have an
additional minor
excuse as well, as he was a RB through most of his
Sophomore season and was switched to WR late
2008 after a Brandon Tate (NE Patriots)
injury.
Greg Little is a physical "beast", he also comes
with WR inexperience and major baggage. We have him
fairly highly rated based on great physical and
decent actual performance metrics, but "buyer beware" on the
items we can't quantify -- character. If not for
the character issue and a missed 2010 season, I
think Little would be discussed as a 1st Round
draft pick as well. If given a chance to perform
in 2010 with a more seasoned T.J. Yates,
Little may have posted a season that may have
warranted a top-of-the-class among 2011
WRs...we'll never know.
Terrence Toliver (LSU) is the biggest unknown
of these 3 WRs for most fans. You're not likely
going to find Toliver among anyone's Top-10
pre-Draft WR's list, but he is rating (in our system
analysis) as a potentially very
good translation to the NFL, with a few metrics
jumping out as a possible elite WR...but also a
few red-flags; before we get too excited.
Toliver, like Baldwin and Little, also had just 5 TDs in his final
season (2010). What's impressive about that is
-- the LSU team threw for only 10 passing TDs
all season (one of the 10 thrown by a RB...thrown to
Toliver). Just 10 passing TDs in all of 2010 for LSU,
as well as just barely over 2,000 yards passing
(just 155 yards per game)...the overall receiver
stat opportunities for Toliver were very limited
by comparison to Baldwin and Little...in the
proper context, Toliver's on-field performance
was actually pretty good (it just looks weak on
the surface). Overall, Toliver's 5 receiving TDs are much more impressive
(compared to their teams totals) than Baldwin or
Little.
Toliver measures 6'3.5" with very big hands, but is a
little slower on his vertical/straight-line speed and is
also thinner of frame than these other "Big WRs"
(just 212 pounds). Where Toliver catches my eye
is on his agility metrics. Toliver may be the
single most agile (measurement-wise) WR in the 2011 NFL Draft,
right there with/ahead of a much higher thought of WR
(in the media) in Austin Pettis of Boise State.
Toliver is hands down (to me) a better
pro-prospect than Pettis.
Toliver has some baggage as well, he broke
his hand in an altercation in early 2010 and was
reportedly tasered by police during the
incident. Through pre-Draft interviews/buzz
Toliver seems to have the least "character
concern" (of these 3 WRs) by scouts/execs, but
is not without a blemish on his record..
The NFL WR that is the
best match for Baldwin, Little and Toliver in our system:
Jonathan Baldwin -- Looking for a
physically tall/dominant WR with decent speed
and an underperformance on-the-field in our system; and we
really couldn't a perfect match. Baldwin has a
lot in common physically with Vincent Jackson
and Marques Colston...but both of them way
outperformed Baldwin on the field. A bigger WR
who was closer to a performance letdown was
Aaron Kelly...but Kelly was a much smaller
framed WR, not as physically imposing as
Baldwin. Baldwin's physical metrics and his poor
performance really don't make much (historical
sense)...which may make him very intriguing in
the NFL Draft, or bust waiting to happen.
LEGEND FOR RATINGS:
- SPEED = a combination of speed
measurements from the NFL Combine/Pro-Days,
measured against our database on similar
WRs
- AGILITY = a combination of
agility test measurements from the NFL
Combine/Pro-Days, measured against our database on similar WRs
- HANDS = a combination of
performance metrics and physical metrics to
grade "hands" or ability to catch the ball
translated ahead to the NFL. A
unique/private metric of ours.
- TD = a combination of
performance metrics and physical metrics to
grade "TD catching prowess", a kinda "red
zone" factor translating ahead to the NFL. A
unique/private metric of ours.
*school grade system, A+ being the best in
class historically all the way to F- as
historically the worst combination of metrics --
all based on what WRs with those measurements
did (or didn't do) in the NFL.
|
LAST |
FIRST |
Draft Year |
COLLEGE |
H |
H |
W |
40-y |
Hands |
Speed |
Agility |
TD |
|
Baldwin |
Jonathan |
2011 |
Pittsburgh |
6 |
4.4 |
228 |
4.49 |
C+ |
B- |
C- |
B- |
|
Colston |
Marques |
2006 |
Hofstra |
6 |
4.6 |
224 |
4.50 |
C+ |
C |
B- |
B- |
|
Austin |
Miles |
2006 |
Monmouth |
6 |
2.1 |
215 |
4.47 |
B+ |
B- |
C+ |
A+ |
|
Kelly |
Aaron |
2010 |
Clemson |
6 |
4.4 |
204 |
4.49 |
C |
B |
D |
C- |
Greg Little -- Another WR that
is hard to match up in our system, part of a new
breed of very high physical metric WR's with softer/non-dominant/non-jaw
dropping
actual game/stat performance metrics. Dorin
Dickerson, Dewayne Jarrett and Robert Meachem
had some things in common with Little...but all
performed ahead of him on the field. Little was
on the cusp (but just missed some of our cutoffs) of
having more performance metrics at an elite
level -- which would have potentially pushed
Little up as high as our #1 rated "Big WR" of
2011.
|
LAST |
FIRST |
Draft Year |
COLLEGE |
H |
H |
W |
40-y |
Hands |
Speed |
Agility |
TD |
|
Little |
Greg |
2011 |
UNC |
6 |
2.5 |
231 |
4.51 |
C |
C |
B |
B- |
|
Dickerson |
Dorin |
2010 |
Pittsburgh |
6 |
1.8 |
226 |
4.40 |
C+ |
A- |
B |
A- |
|
Jarrett |
Dewayne |
2007 |
USC |
6 |
3.0 |
215 |
4.62 |
C |
C+ |
D+ |
B- |
|
Meachem |
Robert |
2007 |
Tennessee |
6 |
2.0 |
214 |
4.42 |
B |
A- |
B- |
A |
Terrence Toliver -- Looking in
our system for taller WR's who did not have blazing
vertical speed, but despite that were very highly agile.
Also looking for "Big WRs" who were above average
on-field stat/performers in college relative to
strength of schedule and style of Offense played
in -- coincidentally former LSU standout Dwayne
Bowe is a nice fit for a potential profile for
Toliver, with Toliver not as sturdy (physically)
of frame as Bowe...and is an injury risk (in our
system), because of it.
|
LAST |
FIRST |
Draft Year |
COLLEGE |
H |
H |
W |
40-y |
Hands |
Speed |
Agility |
TD |
|
Toliver |
Terrence |
2011 |
LSU |
6 |
3.5 |
212 |
4.52 |
C+ |
C |
A+ |
B |
|
Bowe |
Dwayne |
2007 |
LSU |
6 |
2.2 |
221 |
4.51 |
B+ |
C |
A- |
B+ |
|
Colston |
Marques |
2006 |
Hofstra |
6 |
4.6 |
224 |
4.50 |
C+ |
C |
B- |
B- |
|
Hardy |
James |
2008 |
Indiana |
6 |
5.0 |
220 |
4.45 |
B |
B |
B |
C+ |
Ranking the Top "Big WRs"
that we have profiled so far
(0.900+ we start to take the "big WR" serious as a potential NFL
elite, 0.800+ is a WR to take seriously as
potentially very good and potentially great, below
0.800 is the more probable NFL mediocre WR, and
a higher potential bust)
* See this story for background on our system
scoring methodology --
NFL Draft 2011 - In Search of the Next Great NFL
WR -- a Mathematical Analysis of College WRs -
Fantasy Football 2011
-
0.981 = Leonard
Hankerson, Miami
-
0.934 = Julio Jones,
Alabama
-
0.898 = Greg Little,
UNC
-
0.847 = Terrence
Toliver, LSU
-
0.811 = Jonathan
Baldwin, Pittsburgh
-
0.714 = A.J. Green,
Georgia
2011 NFL DRAFT Outlook
for Baldwin, Little, and Toliver
Jonathan Baldwin is typically a
Top 5-10 WR overall on Mock Draft lists, and I
would agree with that. However, I would suspect
Baldwin being such a physical presence and a
high-risk/high-reward type of opportunity -- I
could see him as one of the first 4-5 WRs taken
as a potential "shock" pick in the early 2nd
Round (to a team that gambles too much on
character concern skill players (so he could be
a Bengal or Raider soon). Baldwin is an
intriguing gamble, but with such low statistical
final season performance and off-field questions
-- it likely would scare me off of him as a high 2nd Round
pick...but I understand the gamble. If Julio
Jones is worth a Top-10 pick because of his elite
physical metrics despite mediocre on-field
performance, then Baldwin is definitely worth a
Top-50 pick based on the same (and a cheaper
play as well). Baldwin just has too many things
that point to a bust for my liking.
Greg Little is our #3 rated
overall "Big WR" on a statistical analysis, and
like Baldwin he is a Top 5-10 Mock Draft WR.
Like Baldwin, Little has off-field questions as
well. Little may be (in reality) a Top 3 or 5 WR
in this Draft -- and ultimately a
steal. However, given a suspension last season and
many other good WRs to gamble on (like Baldwin,
Hankerson or Toliver, to name a few)...Little
may drop into a 7-10th WR taken, which may
present an incredible value because there are
signs of a potential elite WR with Little (along
with some red-flags). Because Little may
possibly be the best WR in the 2011 class (we
see some signs of it, but not a guarantee), and
yet might be available in the 3rd-4th Round...he may
be the best "value" WR in this 2011 Draft.
Terrence Toliver is our #4
rated overall "Big WR" on a statistical basis,
but you will have a hard time finding in the Top
15-20 overall WRs on any Draft list. Toliver is
likely bound for a 3rd-5th Round Draft pick, but
given some of the data our computer is showing
on him -- he could be a major steal...even if
that just means he is just a solid, contributing
NFL WR; and is much cheaper than a A.J. Green or
Julio Jones will be payroll-wise. If your team lands Toliver late,
you should have some excitement for this low-risk pick to
potentially turn
into something much better than expected. He has
higher "injury issue" metrics, so "buyer
beware".
The only 2011 "Big WR" that we haven't found a
major flaw with is Leonard Hankerson. After
that, questions arise with the rest of our top "Big WR"
field. As you may know from previous articles, I am very much against high
draft pick WRs...it is possibly the worst business
decision that is repeatedly made in the NFL by
bad teams with lots of needs. Given the fact
that the high pick WR/bad business decision is
likely to happen again in 2011 with Green and Jones, I
would be much happier passing on Green/Jones and
taking my chances with a Baldwin, Little or
Toliver at a much cheaper pick/price...if their
background check turned out to be something I
could live with (on Baldwin and Little).
The NFL season schedules are coming out
soon plus the NFL Draft is almost upon us, so
the computers are geared up to start running
analysis on projecting players and situations
for 2011 -- our
2011 Fantasy
Football Draft Guide on sale this summer
(even if you don't play Fantasy Football you
might really enjoy this work) with
400+ players evaluated statistically for the
upcoming season!
Our Fantasy
Football Draft Guide is EVER-EVOLVING
!!!! Not like a stale magazine with outdated
data by the time it arrives on newsstands, and
is obsolete when the next big injury or
personnel move is made -- we update our player
projections and commentary as often as daily
(sometimes multiple times daily if news warrants
it)...we work just like your own personal "war
room" right up to Draft Day (see home page for
clips of some of last years work) and you can
access the e-Guide "at will" with your initial
purchase.
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
position.
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