Time to consider dumping out of very good,
very Fantasy Football productive to date,
players...before the circumstances change and
their value drops. Taking a look ahead at the
next few weeks of strength of schedules and team
circumstances, here are a few things to
consider:
1) Larry Fitzgerald -- Next 6 weeks = BYE-PIT-BAL-STL-PHI-SF
Kevin Kolb has been much worse than we
projected. Watching the Cardinals game this past
week was the final straw in watching Cardinal
receivers drop sure TDs, as well as watching the
O-Line collapsing in the pocket quickly, all
while Larry Fitzgerald is double and triple
covered. Kolb/Arizona has been terrible with an
easy early schedule, so assumingly this will be
a nightmare coming up in the next few weeks.
Facing Pittsburgh and Baltimore are
no-brainers as match-ups to fear, but also
consider that no matter how bad the Eagles have
been...they have been shutting down the
opponents top WR (this week holding Stevie
Johnson to 4 rec for 29 yards and no TDs).
San Fran is suddenly a stronger opponent now as
well. Fitzgerald will be potentially very
under-whelming for 3 of the next 5 games, and
then obviously useless this week on a BYE. His
stats have been decent, and his reputation
carries weight -- we will be dealing him to
anyone giving fair/normal value.
2) Maurice Jones-Drew -- Next 6 weeks =
PIT-BAL-HOU-BYE-IND-CLE
Nothing against MJD, but his team is
terrible, and they are likely to lose the next 3
games...dropping them to (1-7). Potentially, a
coach to be fired...as well as dialing back on a
veteran RB. Why continue to run MJD 20+ times a
game when the season is headed to disaster? The
long-term look is one thing, but PIT-BAL-HOU
upcoming is a killer, followed by a BYE. MJD may
be very quiet for the next 3 weeks, and then
nothing in 4 weeks with the BYE. MJD has value,
and you need to flip out of it before he drags
your team down over the next few weeks...and
potentially the rest of the season.
3) Vincent Jackson -- next 6 weeks = BYE-NYJ-KC-GB-OAK-CHI
Jackson has been an enigma this season, as
has Philip Rivers. Darrelle Revis
will shut Jackson down in two weeks, and if GB's
DBs are back to full health by Week-9...it could
be trouble there too. The Chicago game is on the
road, potentially in the cold...which has never
been great for the warm-weather San Diego
passing game. If you can get good value,
consider flipping out of him ahead of all of
this.
4) Ryan Fitzpatrick -- next 6
7 weeks =
NYG-BYE-WAS-NYJ-DAL-MIA-NYJ
You should have dealt Fitzpatrick by now, but
despite his fading stats in the last few weeks
-- there still may be time to swap him for some
value.
Two match-ups with the Jets in the next 7
weeks is never a good thing. While NYG, WAS, DAL
may not be absolute elite pass-defenses, they
are solid...and sometimes great. Fitzpatrick is
somewhat overrated as it is, and this schedule
is (and has started to already) going to bring
his statistical output down. Two Jets games and
a BYE, means at minimum Fitzpatrick is useless
for 3 of the next 7 games. We think he's
virtually useless 4-5-6 times in the next 7
weeks.
5) A.J. Green -- next 6 9
weeks = IND-BYE-SEA-TEN-PIT-BAL-CLE-PIT-HOU
An absolute green-light start for the next
two Cincy games with IND & SEA, the problem is
what lurks beyond that. Two match-ups with PIT,
plus BAL, TEN, HOU...opponents with much tougher
lock-down CBs that Green will face, versus the
cupcake matchups he has benefited from the last
couple weeks. Green is good, but this schedule
is a lot to ask from a rookie without much WR
offset with a rookie QB. Green's value is
blazing now, a perfect time to get great value
in return.
6) DeSean Jackson -- next 6 weeks =
WAS-BYE-DAL-CHI-ARI-NYG
The schedule isn't as imposing as the others
mentioned above, but many solid opponents
listed. The Eagles season is on life-support,
and DeSean Jackson is in a contract
squabble (reportedly becoming a locker room
distraction). Should the Eagles fall to (1-5)
after Week-6, the whole Philly situation could
be a nightmare. Jackson is virtually immune to
schedule, but Michael Vick is not...and
if Vick is struggling, Jackson is going to
struggle. Should the Eagles fall to (1-5), it
could get ugly with the "effort" given by
individual players. Jackson has had two good
weeks in a row, it may be the last/best time to
trade him for elite value.
It is a risky move to give up on DeSean, as a
win in Week-6, keeps Philly alive and playing
with purpose. My concern is a loss wipes
DeSean/Vick's efforts out the rest of the
season. DeSean's elite statistical output is
very much tied to Vick...and Vick is very much
taking big hits and getting banged up; there is
no way Vick plays/starts all 16 games in 2011.
There is so much risk here, I'd rather trade
DeSean for equal value and move on with my 2011.
I hesitated to add a 7th player to the list
-- Michael Vick.
In the Eagles 2011 YTD meltdown, Vick's
Fantasy Football scoring has held up. My
concern, what does Vick, et al do if their
season falls to (1-5)? How hard is Vick willing
to work? Is it out of the question that Vick
will take a huge hit, and stay out of a game
longer...or stay out for games? What is his
motivation to rush back into an already lost
season?
If the season is essentially done, will Vick
continue to sacrifice his body running the ball?
Would you? Vick has been from mega-star, to the
highest-paid player, to becoming a mild-bust, to
jailed, to bankrupt, to 3rd-string, to mega-mega
star, to wealthy again. Vick has stated this
(2011) season is the first time he has really
tried to study defenses...really? 8 TDs and 7
INTs in 4 games, 4 INTs in a key game against
Buffalo (did I just say key game against
Buffalo?). Do you really think Vick has the
motivation going forward if they fall to (1-5)?
Look at his entire career, his actions, his
entire body of work...do you trust Michael
Vick, to be Michael Vick of 2010, in
turmoil/in a lost season?
My only point here with Vick, or with any of
these players listed -- they are great players,
but they have a lot of risk going forward. Don't
give them away, but do try to exchange them for
equally talented players if possible...one's
without the risk. Vick is perpetually on the
precipice of wiping out a Fantasy Football
season, you can't say that about Aaron
Rodgers, Drew Brees, even Philip
Rivers.
Avoid risk, capitalize on inflated player
values ahead of a "slow down". This is not the
time to get comfortable in Fantasy Football
land.
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