There are two deep levels of panic in Fantasy
Football (excluding the Sunday panic of your
best player getting strep throat, and becoming a
late scratch)...
Deep Panic # 1 = The crazed
psychological torture we do that -- anything
that happens in Week-1, is bound to happen that
way for the entire season. Player-X scores a TD
opening day, he's going to score 16 this season.
Player-Y does not score a TD opening day, and
he's never going to get another minute of
playing the rest of the way.
Deep Panic #1 is usually self-correcting, to
a degree. Top players, who were quiet in Week-1,
bounced back in Week-2, and thus corrected the
bad emotions. Many (0-1) Fantasy GMs pulled
themselves back up to (1-1), and the (1-0) GMs
dropped to (1-1). Everyone feels optimistic at
(1-1), "hey, at least I won't lose every game
this season!"
Deep Panic #2 comes after Week-3. The
now (0-3) teams are completely desperate, and/or
numb, and might be tuning out of
everything...they don't panic as much, as they
are now "dead inside". The real panic is with
the (1-2) teams. Especially, the formerly (1-0)
teams now (1-2)...riding a two game losing
streak, and wondering what happened to the
perfect season they had going after one whole
week opening day. The (1-2) still have hope, but
it's fleeting...and the thought of going to
(1-3) is jarring. Sometimes the (0-3) owners,
but especially the (1-2) owners are there for a
particular reason...a major 1st-Round level type
pick is killing them -- Chris Johnson, Rashard
Mendenhall, etc.
One bad game from your "stud" sucks, two is
troubling, three is an irreversible trend (in
their mind). It would be better if they just
lost the player for the season (Jamaal
Charles), and could move on to another
player. The one's who are stuck with the "dud"
elite, they are currently torn..."Do I trade
Chris Johnson now, only to watch him
prosper away from me...or keep him, and on
another dud week my season is over?" This is
the person you want to make a move on. It's
great to draft an awesome Fantasy Football team
initially, but it's no different if you just
maneuver your way into a great team.
I am targeting panicky owners, for their
"down" stocks...that they might be willing to
sell at a discount. Here are some of the players
I am targeting:
...keep in mind this is only if the deal is
heavily in my favor, not over-trading for a
"down" stock...I want to be bottom-fishing. I
want to be on the Rick Harrison/Chumlee
side of the Pawn Star display case, not the
other way around...(no particular order):
Miles Austin, DAL-WR, Arian Foster,
HOU-RB and Aaron Hernandez, NE-TE = One
of my favorite things to do, to create value, is
acquire elite players with slight injuries (out
a few weeks), and gamble their
comeback...especially with (3-0) teams I have.
Situations where I can afford to wait, but they
can't. Especially, if I can deal over-heated
"stocks" in exchange...right before they
collapse. You take my Tim Hightower, Scott
Chandler, Devery Henderson, Jahvid Best, Fred
Davis, Steve Smith (CAR), etc ...I'll wait
on your Austin, Foster, Hernandez, even
Michael Vick.
Jermaine Gresham, CIN-TE =
Possibly, Gresham is on waivers in your league.
In the last two weeks, Gresham has no TDs and
just 3.0 catches for 29.5 yards per game.
Gresham is averaging 7.0 targets per game on the
season, and has at least one red-zone target in
every game this year. As Andy Dalton
continues to mature, and gets more comfortable
-- the 6'5, 260 pound, excellent hands TE, might
become Dalton's best friend. Especially, if
Jerome Simpson goes to jail, and/or
Cedric Benson. Gresham has 2 fewer targets
than A.J. Green on the season, but more
red-zone targets...and an equal amount of TDs.
For those Fantasy GMs that are a little TE
desperate, this would be a nice TE-2 to work
with until your TE-1 comes back (or provide
depth in case tragedy strikes your TE-1).
Gresham may even develop into a solid TE-1 this
season.
Brandon Lloyd, DEN-WR = A
highly drafted WR this preseason, and he has
delivered no TDs as of yet, and missed a game
with injury, and has no 100+ yard games. Make no
mistake, we love Eric Decker...but Lloyd
is the preferred WR for Kyle Orton (in
our opinion). Not that Decker will dry up and
disappear. It actually helps Lloyd that Decker
has "arrived." Decker's "arrival" may make Lloyd
appear to be the odd-man out, to a panicky
owner. I would not discount that Orton/Lloyd
bond. Only injury can hold this back. Lloyd had
11 targets opening day, and had 7 this past week
coming off his groin injury (still bothering).
Percy Harvin, MIN-WR = We have
him on about 90% of the teams we are associated
with, but we will go after him on the cheap in
the other 10%. Yes, I know...the Vikings don't
use him enough, and I don't get it either.
However, if this is the worst it gets for
touches...it's not bad. In the last 2 games,
Harvin has compiled 91.0 yards per game (rush +
rec)...a 1,456 yard season pace. His crime, is
no TDs. Harvin is an elite NFL player, in
time...either the increased touches will come,
or TDs, or both. A true elite NFL talent, who is
his team's best WR...and 2nd best tailback,
available for little. I wouldn't be surprised if
he was cut in some leagues this week. Crazy...
Titus Young, DET-WR = Our
computer scouting analysis was very much down on
Young coming out of college; most all of it due
to a high probability of injury risk. After
watching him on tape the last few weeks, I'll
take my chances. He has been the most impressive
rookie WR I've seen in the last few weeks (aside
from Torrey Smith). In a PPR league, I
see Young as a possible 5-7 catch for 50-70+
yards per game type WR as the Lions continue to
be a 40-50+ pass attempt per game team....partly
because the Lions can't run effectively, and
mostly because they are suddenly loaded with
great receiving weapons all over. Young would
cost many nada, so worth the investment in a PPR
potentially. Not going to be a star, but a
useful WR in a PPR league with 3 WR lineups.
Mark Ingram, NO-RB = If you
have been with us for awhile, you know we are
not that high on Ingram. We don't project him as
an elite NFL RB, and we hate the Saints crowded
RB situation. However, we respect "opportunity"
as much as talent. Before the season, Ingram was
wildly overrated...now he is coming back to
earth. In a non-PPR league, in a world where RBs
are getting more scarce and erratic...Ingram is
a Pierre Thomas injury (that would never
happen...) away from being a 15+ carry RB (and
maybe even if PT is there). If I have RB
desperation, and Ingram comes cheap...I would
roll the dice. Especially, with the cake-walk
schedule NO has the next 7 weeks before their
BYE.
Hakeem Nicks, NYG-WR = Nicks
had a quiet game two weeks ago fighting an
injury, and had a very quiet game against Philly
this week. Many WRs are going to be muted
against the Philly CBs. If you ever wanted a
shot at a top-5/ultra-elite WR, at a potentially
discounted price, this is probably your last
chance. Nicks has ARI-SEA-BUF coming up the next
3 weeks.
Sam Bradford, STL-QB = Bradford
has been beaten down by schedule so far, facing
PHI-NYG-BAL. The Rams will turn into a high
pass-attempt team upcoming, utilizing Bradford's
passing skills mixed with a run of
ARI-CLE-SEA-ARI-SF-SEA-CIN from Weeks 9-15. If
you have QB-2 need, here is one with huge upside
available at a discount right now. You don't
have to act that fast. The next 3 weeks are with
WAS-BYE-GB...so there will likely be more
opportunity for a "down" Bradford as well.
Bradford is a QB-2, with QB-1 upside.
Danario Alexander, STL-WR =
this would help Bradford as well, if Alexander
continues to stay healthy. Alexander is a
Calvin Johnson-esque WR, when healthy. He
sat Week-1, and then blew up on Monday Night
Football Week-2. He is too good for the Rams to
keep on the bench. Alexander has 7.5 targets per
game in his last 2 games, but is coming off a
weak performance Week-3...just 2 rec for 28
yards. Keep in mind, that was against BAL, and
Alexander had a team high 8 targets.
Philip Rivers, SD-QB = 4 TDs
and 6 INTs after 3 games. Rivers is an elite
Fantasy Football QB, available at a discounted
price potentially. It's worth kicking the tires
on if you can trade your non-elite, quick-start
QB like Cam Newton or Ryan Fitzpatrick
or Mark Sanchez in part of a deal.
James Starks, GB-RB = 11
carries for 5 yards vs. CHI this week, while
Ryan Grant went for 92 yards. Starks has
been better than Grant all season up until this
week. Starks could be an RB-1 most of this
season, and may be available at a huge discount
right now...for those in RB desperation, or just
needing depth.
Rashard Mendenhall, PIT-RB =
Just 49.3 yards per game rushing so far, and
only 3.0 yards per carry. As the Steelers
convert more toward a passing team, versus a
run-heavy one...it should give Mendenhall more
breathing room to run despite a beat-up
offensive line. Mendenhall is an elite talent,
that may be available at a discount right now.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT-QB = no
2+ TD passing games yet this year, and just 3
passing TDs to 4 INTs in total. Ben hasn't
looked all that great so far, but I'm sure he
didn't forget how to play QB just this season.
He has emerging, young WRs that he has compiled
314.0 yards per game passing with so far. The
Steelers are coming off of their run-run-run
style, and are somewhat forced to throw
more...Ben will put up numbers. Ben has only 3
TDs this year, but it coulda/shoulda been as
many as 6. Ben is an elite QB with a great
schedule, possibly available on the cheap. Don't
love him vs. HOU this week, but great going
forward after that.
Mike Tolbert, SD-RB = After
Week-1, the greatest player in the NFL. After a
Week-3 with Ryan Matthews doing well...a
bum. That's how it goes in Fantasy Football.
Ryan Matthews is great, no doubt...but
Tolbert was one of the top-scoring RBs in
Fantasy Football after an incredible Week-1, and
a decent Week-2. Tolbert has been nicked up the
last 2 weeks, but is still a huge weapon in the
passing game at minimum...and key in goal-line
situations. In a PPR league, I am all over
this...he's like Darren Sproles on
steroids (figuratively).
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