I am not trying to coin a new phrase to the
Fantasy Football lexicon...this is literally a
Texas-based strategy from Week-7 on -- using the
Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys Team-Defenses
in tandem for the rest of the 2011 season.
The theory has 2 main parts:
-
The ease of schedule
-
The quality of their defenses
Most people are not thinking about either
Defense as a very exciting play for Fantasy
Football 2011 right now. Using Yahoo's Fantasy
Football data -- Dallas is owned by 43% of their
users, and Houston 51%. Neither is a favorable
start for Week-6 (Dallas vs. NE, and Houston vs.
BAL)...which is a perfect potential setup to
maneuver this play over the next few days (if
you are so inclined).
Let's look at the schedule forecast angle to
this first, then layout a case on the merit of
their actual defensive performance.
The
schedule from Week-7 on:
There is a great synergy between these two
defenses from Week-7 on. For those that like to
hop defenses week-to-week (which is my
preferred), this HOU-DAL situation offers the
option to land two defenses for the rest of
2011, that you may never have to worry about
what you are "doing the following week" for a
Team-Defense.
Week-7 = Dallas
vs. Bradford, Houston
@ Hasselbeck
This isn't necessarily the best week of
synergy, but it's pretty good...given that St.
Louis may be (0-5) and beyond toast at that
point. Hasselbeck has been good, but has thrown
an INT in 4 of his 5 games played YTD.
Hasselbeck's non-INT game came against a bad
Denver defense, missing a banged up Champ
Bailey.
Week-8 = Dallas
@ Vick, Houston
vs. Gabbert
I'll take any defense against Jacksonville,
and feel fine. Dallas vs. Vick isn't necessarily
a bad thing looking for turnovers...but I will
take Gabbert every time it's available.
Week-9 = Dallas
@ Tavaris Jackson/Whitehurst,
Houston vs.
McCoy
Two decent options, but obviously the Seattle
play is the very favorable one here.
Week-10 = Dallas
vs. Fitzpatrick,
Houston @ Freeman
If you wade past the Josh Freeman
media-hype hysteria...you will find a QB that
has thrown 1 TD and 5 INTs in his past 3 games.
Freeman/Tampa Bay is very over-hyped and
value...and they are moving from a neutral play
of your defense against them, to a near
favorable matchup for your defense. Fitzpatrick
doesn't scare me either...he thrives against
weaker opponents, he has just 3 TDs and 3 INTs
in his last 3 games facing NE-CIN-PHI.
Week-11 = Dallas
@ Grossman, Houston
Bye-Week
Grossman has 5 INTs in his last 3 games, and
I will take a Grossman matchup for my Fantasy
Football Defense anytime I can get it.
Week-12 = Dallas
vs. Matt Moore, Houston
vs. Gabbert
Ladies choice on the dance floor! I would
roll with either of these matchups.
Week-13 = Dallas
@ Kolb, Houston
vs. Matt Ryan
I still like Kevin Kolb, but I
certainly have no fear of him/the Cardinals
based on what I have seen of their offensive
line/protection this year. Matt Ryan hasn't been
stellar either.
Week-14 = Dallas
vs. Eli, Houston
vs. Dalton
Your choice for your team-Defense to face the
NFL's INT leader the past 1+ season, or face a
rookie QB.
Week-15 = Dallas
@ Freeman, Houston
vs. Newton
Newton may make you blink at first, but keep
in mind he is a rookie...and the turnover
potential is high, and his actual turnovers are
growing. Newton has 5 INTs in his past 4 games,
and 6 INTs on the season. The aforementioned
Freeman has been turnover prone in 2011 as well.
Week-16 = Dallas
vs. Vick(?), Houston
vs. Painter
Hopefully you have made it this far.
Potentially, your choice might be between facing
Curtis Painter, or Mike Kafka/Vince
Young...on a potentially long-since out of
the playoff race Eagles squad.
What you don't see for either the Cowboys or
Texans, in this Week-7 thru Week-16 scenario --
matchups with either Tom Brady, Drew Brees,
Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo, Matt
Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers,
or Joe Flacco. This is always a good
thing!
Your Week 7-16 hopscotch probably projects
to:
In the last 3 weeks, the QBs listed above
have thrown for 1.1 TDs and 1.1 INTs per game.
QBs not listed above, have thrown for 1.7 TDs
and 1.0 INTs in that same span. That also takes
into affect that Matt Moore is just
getting started, and Curtis Painter has
been turnover free...and that is not likely to
last with his 48.5% Comp Pct in his two starts.
If you decided to take the Vick matchups, your
INT probabilities would fly even higher (based
on Vick's YTD inefficiency).
The
talent side of the equation...
Houston:
Houston has been quietly dominant against the
pass this season, allowing just 226.6 passing
yards per game on a 52.9% Comp Pct allowed. The
Texans have given up 7 TDs with 5 INTs this
season. The only QB who has performed against
them was Drew Brees, and they gave Brees
fits for awhile...picking him off twice, and
having several near miss INTs. Less the Brees
game, the Texans Defense has allowed only a
46.8% Comp Pct against with just 190.8 passing
yards per game (the league average is 250+
yards) allowed.
The Texans have been decent/good against the
run, but not great. They did just hold Darren
McFadden to 51 yards rushing, and held
Rashard Mendenhall to 25 yards on 9 carries.
On the other hand, they did give up 107 yards
rushing to Daniel Thomas (Johnathan
Joseph out for many series when this
happened) and the 3-headed monster Saints attack
combined for 101 yards rushing.
Yes, the Texans have lost Mario Williams...but
we think that is a little overblown to the
impact of the defense. We really like his
replacement Brooks Reed. In fact, we love
all the defensive moves the Texans made in the
off-season via free agency and the NFL Draft.
None probably more important than the hiring of
Wade Phillips as the defensive
coordinator.
Dallas:
The set of defensive statistics that jump out
on the Dallas Cowboys so far in 2011, is their
prowess against the run. The Cowboys have not
allowed more than 47 yards to any RB they have
faced in 2011 (Gore and J.Best both with 47).
Not only have they shutdown Frank Gore
and Jahvid Best, but Tim Hightower
(41) and Shonn Greene (26). RBs are
averaging 3.0 yards per carry against the
Cowboys defense YTD, and RBs with 10+ carries
against them have averaged just 2.9 yards per
carry YTD.
Dallas has been "OK" against the pass in 2011
to date. They have held opposing QBs to 57.4%
Comp Pct with 251.0 yards passing per game, with
7 TDs and 4 INTs. A couple notes to the passing
stats -- the Cowboys had main DBs missing games
early...skipping past Week-1, the Cowboys have
allowed only 223.0 passing yards per game, with
an INT in each game (including the only INT
Alex Smith has thrown in 2011) since opening
day. The Cowboys had virtually shutdown the
Lions offense in Week-4, before the bizarre 4th
Quarter.
We grade the Cowboys defensive personnel
talent well, but what takes it to another level
is the hiring of Rob Ryan as the
Defensive-Coordinator...and you can see the
difference already.
Summary
Both the Texans and Cowboys Team-Defenses are
among the top-10 in the league for sacks and
lowest offensive points allowed through Week-5.
They are also one of the handful of top
Team-Defenses that have yet to score a defensive
TD...although the Texans have been robbed of at
least two of them so far on penalties.
Statistically speaking, the Cowboys and Texans
defenses are overdue for a defensive TD.
Both Team-Defenses have bad matchups this
week, which may give you cloud-cover to grab
them both next week on waivers...and then
hopefully to run them out as a platoon for the
rest of the season.
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to see stats and scouting information for that respective
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