FANTASY FOOTBALL  2011 ~ So...you don't have Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Michael Vick, or Cam Newton as your Fantasy Football QB. Guess who is climbing up right behind them, and is probably on someone's bench?

The under-the-radar (kinda) QB that our computer analysis is buzzing about right now, is kinda like a race horse that no one thinks can win the race...nor does anyone think he can even hang near the top horses. This horse has raced with the perennial elite race horses before, but to no avail...and mostly met with a general scoffing to date.

(cue old-tyme, nasally/scratchy radio voice from a horse race track from days gone by)..."out in front it's Rodgers, followed by the surprising Newton, then the always dangerous Vick, there's the savvy Brady and Brees staying close, now Stafford has joined the pack as well....wait, what's this?...could it be?, blasting past Eli, Schaub, Big Ben...gaining on the outside, it's, it's...Mark Sanchez"...

I know, I'm a bit shocked too.

The genesis of this research, is like an outreach program to an impoverished village -- every week I get emails or fall into conversations with Fantasy Football owners who have essentially gone "mad" because of their QB situation. "Mad" as in crazy...if they don't have Rodgers-Brees-Vick etc. Every week they are twisting and turning with Rivers, Big Ben, Flacco, Tebow, Freeman, Ryan, Kolb, etc...the weekly highs and (mostly) lows have driven many into weekly derangement. The kind of derangement where you are spending all week trying to figure out a deal in which some team in your league will somehow trade you Rodgers or Brees, etc....there is little/NO chance of that happening, but every week they ask advice attempting to try to stack 3-4 player fragments to land Rodgers, and each week nothing.

Worse derangement than chasing a QB you'll never get, is pinning all your hopes on a QB who has had 2-3 good games, or is "hot". You would think Eli Manning is Peyton Manning now. Had I told you two months ago that your life's mission each 2011 Fantasy Football week would be to try move heaven and earth to acquire Eli Manning, you would have said that I was insane. Guess what, you'd kill to trade Chris Johnson for Eli right now...think of what you would have thought of that concept 60 days ago.

Not only are these Fantasy Football GMs "mad", as in lunacy, they are also mad as in mad...mad at me. (example) I said take Rodgers/Brees in the FF Draft, and pair with Kolb to gamble on Kolb as a possible elite trade/useful chip...but some skipped that advice and took Kolb, Flacco, Freeman as their QB-1 in the mid-rounds because, "the book says" to take a QB later, how'd that work out? Now it's my fault that Kolb blows (so far). You need an elite Fantasy Football QB to sleep well at night...and only about 4-5 people in any league are sleeping like babies right now...the rest are headed for a rubber-padded room.

With that mind, we have been looking for a QB that could emerge from the middle-of-the-pack. An emerging QB that is likely available in trade without giving up any of your vital organs in exchange. A season-saver, of sorts...maybe. Enter Mark Sanchez.

Let me start with a very quick "fuzzy math" move to whet your whistle, and then I'll drill-down on deeper/annoying details.

 

Mark Sanchez, the 7th best Fantasy Football QB right now...?

How fast can you count them off before you say I'm crazy? Let me do the math to save your brain cells...

Our tracking of QB scoring (4pts per pass) on a PPG basis in 2011 is = (in order) Rodgers, Newton, Vick, Brady, Brees, Stafford. Those six are on an island all their own, with Rodgers on top of a large mountain looking down on the island. After that it's Eli, and then a drop-off to a congested field of QBs...including #11 ranked Mark Sanchez. So, how is it that I claim that Sanchez is actually the #7 Fantasy Football QB overall? Fuzzy math time...

You may recall in Week-4, a Sunday Night Football offensive disaster of epic proportions...Ravens v. Jets. In that game, both QBs were especially bad statistically, with Sanchez a delightful 11 of 35 (31%) for 199 yards and 0 TD/1 INT. The Ravens, and the Jets, are like no other pass-defense to face for a QB in any given week in 2011. The Jets and Ravens pass-defenses have the capability to humiliate even the best QBs. Ben Roethlisberger threw three picks and completed 54% of his passes against the Ravens Week-1. Matt Schaub threw for 220 yards with just 1 TD and no picks, a quiet game...every QB has a quiet game against the Ravens, no QB has thrown more than 1 TD pass against them.

A game against the Ravens can crush your overall statistical per game data, until more games are heaped on top of it to take the mathematical sting out of it. Right now, Mark Sanchez is sitting at #11 overall for Fantasy Football PPG among QBs according to our PPG ranking, but guess what happens when you take out the nightmare Ravens game? Sanchez rockets to #7 overall for FF scoring on a PPG basis...passing Eli and closing in on Stafford.

Some of you would kill for Stafford or Eli right about now, what if I told you that Mark Sanchez is right there with them?

You might protest -- "you can't do that, you can't take one game out, you have to do that for everybody!" OK, lets take out any games played against the statistically super-elite pass-defenses...the Ravens and the Jets.

Take out Ravens and Jets games, the top-10 Fantasy Football scoring QBs in PPG (4 pts per TD pass) to date are:

1. 26.9 = Rodgers
2. 24.0 = Newton
3. 23.1 = Brady (leaps Vick)
4. 22.2 = Vick
5. 21.2 = Brees
6. 19.8 = Stafford
7. 18.6 = Sanchez (+3.1 PPG without the Ravens game)
8. 18.2 = Eli
9. 17.7 = Roethlisberger (+1.3 without the Ravens game)
10. 17.4 = Schaub (+1.0 without the Ravens game)

 

You may not like that math-twist, and it may not be statistically sound. I'll report, you decide. Here are some additional metrics I thought were interesting/eye-opening on Sanchez 2011 as well...

 

QBs with 2+ TDs thrown in a game YTD, ranked by how many times they have done it this year:

1. 7 = Rodgers
2. 7 = Stafford
3. 6 = Brady (only miss v. the Jets)
4. 5 = Sanchez (one miss v. the Ravens)
5. 5 = Brees
6. 5 = Vick
7. 5 = Fitzpatrick
8. 4 = a bunch

Look at the QB names Sanchez is sitting with, and equally look at the names of who isn't there. The "ground & pound" Jets, are throwing for a lot of TDs in 2011. Sanchez is one of nine QBs with 12+ passing TDs this year. Sanchez is ninth of the nine on the list...however, in TDs per game (NYJ just had a BYE), he would move up to 7th best (at 1.7 TDs per game). I keep seeing that number..."7". Sanchez is 7th in a lot of things we are looking at for 2011 among all QBs, which means he is on the fringe of the elite-6 QBs ahead of him, and a step ahead of the QB cluster behind him.

 

Completed passes per passing TD (how many completions is it before you complete one for a TD?) YTD:

1. 8.6 = Rodgers
2. 9.6 = Stafford
3. 10.2 = Brady
4. 10.8 = Sanchez
5. 11.1 = Fitzpatrick

Again I say, look at the names ahead/around him for this TD proficiency...also, consider who is not on there. I know, you've seen Fitzpatrick listed twice and your engines are revving on him, I'll get to him in a bit...

 

The number of times a QB has scored 14.0+ Fantasy Football points in a game this year (4 pts per TD pass):

1. 7 = Brady
2. 7 = Rodgers
3. 7 = Stafford
4. 7 = Brees
5. 7 = Newton
6. 6 = Sanchez (only game missed, versus the Ravens...)
7. 6 = Vick
8. 5 = a few

Again, I say...look at the names surrounding him on the list, and consider the names not on the list. Nothing burns more than up & down weeks for Fantasy scoring from your QB, and Sanchez has been tremendously stable/consistent in 2011.

 

Sanchez negatives...

Sanchez is scoring much better than people realize, because he is throwing TDs with a proficiency up their with the elite QBs. The area where he is not like the elite QBs -- is higher passing yardage totals. Sanchez is only averaging 220.7 yards passing per game (237.7 without the Ravens game). The 2-3 FF points per game that Sanchez is sitting away from the elite QBs, most of it is in the lower yardage totals. You can look at that one of two ways -- (1) what if the passing yards perk up? (2) If he doesn't get the TDs, then I'm screwed.

I'm not a huge fan of QBs that throw for lower yardage, but there might be a "saving grace" for that on Sanchez...the upcoming schedule.

 

The Sanchez schedule the next four weeks:

BUF-NE-DEN-BUF

Buffalo:

Buffalo is allowing 277.4 passing yards per game, and 16.2 FF PPG to QBs. However, if you yank the John Beck train wreck of last week out of the equation -- the Bills are allowing 289.0 passing yards per game, 1.7 passing TDs per game, and a very high 18.0 FF PPG to QBs. The Bills are not a total pass-defense disaster, but they have given up a ton of yards, and a decent amount of passing TDs.

New England:

The Patriots are a hot-mess in pass-defense in 2011, allowing 336.4 passing yards per game...by far the worst in the NFL. QBs are posting a huge 19.9 FF PPG against them...including big games by Chad Henne and Jason Campbell. Sanchez dropped 2 TDs/0 INTs on them in Week-4, but also had a very meager 166 yards passing. Big Ben may have shown the way on how to beat NE last week, and the Jets might take that path in Week-10.

Denver:

With or without Champ Bailey, Denver has been a mess on pass-defense. Allowing a juicy 21.7 FF PPG to opposing Fantasy Football QBs, along with 267.9 passing yards per game along with 14 passing TDs, and just 2 INTs.

Sanchez hasn't been a huge yardage compiler, but when pressed to throw 40+ times in a game this year (against OAK and DAL)...Sanchez threw for 335 and 369 yards. However, he has 4 games with less than 200 yards passing. The Buffalo and Patriots match-ups especially, have the chance for some puffed up passing attempts.

*Schedule is where we have to excuse Ryan Fitzpatrick from some of this excitement -- he faces the Jets 2x in the next four games, and that's not good at all. He looks a lot better from Week-13 on, but for those that need help right now...Fitzpatrick isn't likely to deliver big against the Jets (and likely most any QB would not either).

 

Summary...

I am not telling you Mark Sanchez is the new Tom Brady. We would like to point out that Sanchez is a lot better in Fantasy Football right now than most people realize...most had their mind made up on him, and I have to admit...I did too, so this is catching me by surprise as well.

If you already have Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, etc...I envision you sitting back reading this, munching on popcorn saying "how cute, all the peons trying to find themselves a QB...that's nice, good luck with that." This article was not so much for you that are QB "happy", more it is to the non-Brady-Brees owner...the one who is figuratively chain-smoking and pouring over various trade scenarios all day, looking for a way to con another Fantasy GM into them giving up Cam Newton or Eli Manning for less than a King's Ransom. For those whose ship is sinking (and may already be sunk ultimately), I throw out to you the (likely) low-cost, under-the-radar, life preserver in the form of Mark Sanchez...for your consideration. A potential savior for the next four weeks, or more.

I hope this is maybe "hope for the hopeless," a cheap alternative that could pan out. If you make this deal, and he throws for 1 TD and 162 yards in a win this week...I'll keep my email powered up for all the slings and arrows.

 

 

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