CAUTION -- The two items of what I am about
to write make no sense right now. If you live in
a Fantasy Football world that only exists based
on what happened last week...please change the
channel now.
OK, for those still remaining I am going to
give you two looks into the crystal ball to try
to find Fantasy Football gold. One concept makes some sense when
you see it, the other concept is so far-fetched
that I'm not sure what you can do with it....but
I will leave it for you to decide. First, the
one that kinda makes some sense...
The New England Patriots
Defense for the rest of 2011...
Your first reaction is to jump up and scream,
"you mean the worst pass-defense in the league?". I want to
break the Patriots current results into three
parts, then give you the ace-in-the-hole.
PART 1 = First 4 games of 2011, the Patriots
gave up a bunch of points and yards to
MIA-SD-BUF-OAK. Keep in mind they were beating
down opponents themselves through the air, these
teams were playing from behind and having to
throw a bunch. The Patriots were playing it much
like the Packers..."we're way up, you can try to
throw, and we will concede some easy yards...but
we'll try to pick-6 you as the off-set". The
Patriots had 7 INTs in those first 3
games...well above the NFL average of about 1.0
per game.
PART 2 = The Pats season took a sudden bizarre
turn when the Cowboys held their offense in
check in Week-6, but hidden in that come from
behind win in which they were stymied by the Cowboys-Defense...the
fact that the Patriots only allowed 16
offensive points/1 TD to the Cowboys. As good as the
Cowboys-Defense was, the Patriots were
better...the first sign in 2011 that the
Patriots could shut an opposing team down. At
this point, sentiment should have turned on
their Defense, but it didn't...the Cowboys
actually got more credit for slowing down the
Pats.
PART 3 = Two losses in-a-row, and world-wide
panic has set in. The loss to Pittsburgh quickly
turned everyone from "the Patriots are great, and
Belichick is a genius" to -- "the Patriots stink,
and Belichick doesn't know what he is doing." Ahh,
the one-week-at-a-time mentality! Hidden in that
Steelers loss -- The Patriots were on defense
for 40 minutes, partially due to the offense not
getting first-downs. The Pats-D essentially
played nearly a game and half, in that one game.
For all the time that the Steelers had the ball,
they only scored 23 offensive points...and the
Pats recorded 5 Sacks in the game.
A loss to the Giants last week sent everyone
further into a tizzy. The Giants did score 24
points, but 7 came on a last minute drive. Prior
to that, the Patriots were suppressing the
Giants. There have been signs for a few weeks,
that the Patriots-Defense is not as bad as being
advertised.
ACE-IN-THE-HOLE = Whether you buy the
Patriots as a good defense or not, what you have
to consider is -- their defense going forward,
because of the all-important schedule. No one is
talking about it now. They're too busy
castigating Belichick as too stupid, all because
the Pats have lost 2-in-a-row. Keep in mind, in
1-2 weeks they will be talking about what I am
about to. It
probably starts after the Jets game, maybe.
The Patriots-Defense faces from Week 13-16,
the Fantasy Football stretch/playoffs =
Painter-Beck/Grossman-Tebow-M. Moore (they face
MIA in the cold/home, which is a plus-plus). The
single best run of offenses/QBs to face from
Week-13 on...is the New England Patriots. As it
stands, the Patriots will need those games/not
be in cruise-control. They
will likely crush the teams in Week 13-16 like
the Packers crush their opponents...and as their
opponents frantically attempt to pass their way
back in --
like the Packers-Defense is successful
doing, a huge pick-6
potential looms among the obvious aerial attack
efforts.
Something to keep in mind to get way ahead
of, and if you can forgo the roster spot for the
next few weeks as they are useless Week 10-12. A
play may be (if your league allows this)...watch
today's games, and whatever bench player you can
jettison prior to the 8:30 game tonight...you
can add the Patriots before anyone else is
discussing it.
*the Patriots had another decent defensive
showing Sunday night. They had 5 sacks, a
pick-6, and held NYJ to 14 offensive points.
The Patriots RB
situation the rest of 2011, enter the
"deep-sleeper"...
Danny Woodhead has disappeared. Woodhead is a
nice couple touch option in an offense, but not
much more...at least that's the way Belichick is
playing it this year. Woodhead cannot take a
feature RB workload/beating; he's too
small/at-risk.
Stevan Ridley had a great preseason spark, as
well as having a productive game a few weeks
ago...sending everyone rushing to the free
agency pool after him, then suddenly he was
discovered to be a little-fish to be thrown back
into the big pond. He cannot be ruled out of the
equation going forward, as he is better built
(size, speed, hands) to be a feature/every-down
RB than Woodhead or Ellis.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis is not a very talented
RB in the grand scheme of things. He is very
functional, but you can see from week-to-week
that he's "like a box of chocolates." Ellis only
thrives because of a quality Pats O-Line, his
experience, and the lack of other options.
We've seen Ellis succeed this year in games
(and also not succeed).
We've seen Ridley have a nice moment. Kevin
Faulk had a OK game...it's a typical Patriots
year of the RB merry-go-round. What we haven't
seen yet, is possibly the best RB on the roster
-- 2011 2nd-Round draft pick Shane Vereen.
Vereen was drafted well ahead of Ridley in
2011, for a reason -- he is a much more talented
(on paper) RB. There are some data points that
we measure on Vereen that alert to a potential
good, maybe elite NFL RB. Vereen was slated to
be in the mix this preseason, but he came down
with a
hamstring injury...and barely played. He has
been inactive much of 2011...but not lately.
Vereen has started to pop up in the backfield
and mostly on special teams.
This is total speculation on our part, but
this is what we do...we speculate that the more
talented player will rise to the top. Sometimes
that happens on cue -- like with Jackie Battle
this year, or sometimes there is a long delay
like with Jordy Nelson. From everything that we
are looking at internally -- Shane Vereen is the
next Patriots feature RB. Vereen rated as a
future good/solid NFL RB in our computer
scouting models, with some slight elite
qualities. Vereen was also a high performer in
college, at Cal. Pairing all of his metrics with
the Patriots O-Line, and it might be gold...Bill
Belichick must think so too, as he drafted him
in the 2nd-Round in 2011. Vereen can run for
speed, and is powerful enough to run between the
tackles, as well as can thrive in the passing
game...he is the Patriots best RB threat, on
paper. We cannot quantify his work ethic, or
injury status.
If you see Vereen pop up with some carries,
it may be time to make a prospective move.
Knowing how Belichick works, Vereen will come
out of nowhere with 15 carries for 95 yards, and
it will be a Fantasy Football free-for-all. The
previously mentioned easy schedule ahead for the
Patriots, is also potential prime real estate to
get Vereen (or Ridley) more integrated into this
offense for the playoff run. The Patriots need a
better running game than what they have shown so
far, as you defenses have been able to harness
Brady/the Pats offense (a bit) of late. This
move is only for those in a deeper league and/or
one where the RB pool has run dry. Hey, you
considered Chris Ogbonnaya last week...how bad
could this be?
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