If the Browns RB situation wasn't annoying
enough, now I had to install "Ogbonnaya" as an
acceptable word into my spell check...
With the Peyton Hillis injury wiping
him out again for Week-9, Chris Ogbonnaya
is now a hot name in the Week-9 Fantasy Football
world...which is the beauty, and madness, of
this Fantasy Football game we play. The obvious
question is, what can you expect from Ogbonnaya
for Week-9...and maybe beyond Week-9? I'd like
to share our scouting of Ogbonnaya, as well as
some of the Browns other RB alternatives, then
look at what we think happens over the next few
weeks.
Chris Ogbonnaya
Physically, a solid/good translation to the
NFL. Ogbonnaya is 5'11+, and a nice NFL-sized
220 pounds. He has decent straight-line speed
and good agility for his size. From a physical
standpoint, he is absolutely worthy to hang in
the NFL. The problem that we see with Ogbonnaya
is -- he has never once proven anything
performance-wise, at any level.
In four seasons at the University of Texas,
Ogbonnaya had 140 carries total. His senior
season, he posted 74 carries for 373 yards and 4
TDs. Ogbonnaya was the 4th leading rusher on the
Longhorns in his senior season, behind QB
Colt McCoy, RB Vondrell McGee, and RB Cody
Johnson. Ogbonnaya once ran for 127 yards in a
game against Oklahoma in 2008, his only 100+
yard rushing game in his college career. Prior
to his under-whelming senior year, Ogbonnaya's
career high for rushing yards in a game was 33.
Based on his physical profile, the St. Louis
Rams drafted him in the 7th-Round of the 2009
NFL Draft. The St. Louis Rams were a team in
desperate need of an off-set RB for Steven
Jackson, but the Rams let Ogbonnaya go away
in favor of other weak RB prospects (like
Kenneth Darby). The Houston Texans signed
Ogbonnaya to their practice squad in 2010, and
waived and re-signed a few times in-between.
With a rash of RB injuries in 2011, the Texans
activated Ogbonnaya for 3 total carries in two
games a few weeks back...and then released him.
The RB desperate Browns scooped him up, and he
has taken on a 3rd-down RB role of sorts with
back-to-back games with 5 catches in each game.
Our scouting would say that Ogbonnaya will be
semi-relevant as long as he gets a high-touch
count, but not projecting for a major outbreak
of high performance. Ogbonnaya has simply never
done anything in the last 6+ football seasons to
warrant any enthusiasm or long-term outlook. We
will trust our computer scouting here, and
assume that Ogbonnaya will be bland...and if
bland, the Browns will turn elsewhere looking
for RB pay-dirt.
For just this one week, we can't see him
making a big splash against a pretty solid
Texans run-defense. Ogbonnaya is a little too
slow to project well against the Texans LB core,
and playing with a very muted offense...it's not
like the passing game is going to open Ogbonnaya
needed huge running lanes.
Thomas Clayton
Do not be shocked if Clayton splits with
Ogbonnaya this week, and kinda bumps him out of
the way. Clayton is a very similar story to
Ogbonnaya. Clayton is big like Ogbonnaya, but is
slower and less agile (not good). Clayton was a
little more heralded in college, starting out at
Florida State, but tore his ACL. He then
transferred to Kansas State, where Clayton
earned more performance "gold stars" on his
report card than Ogbonnaya in college. Clayton
led K-State in rushing in 2005, but with just
637 yards and a 4 TDs.
Clayton was primed for a big year in his
senior year (2006), but was suspended early
after getting into a fight...then essentially
shut-down after four games with injury (but some
speculate it was off-field issues). Despite the
"issues," Clayton was drafted in the 6th-Round
of the 2007 NFL Draft by the San Francisco
49ers. Clayton had huge preseason efforts in
2007 and 2008, but it translated to no actual
NFL playing time. In 2009, he tore his ACL
again.
Clayton had an interesting 2010 -- The
Patriots picked him up in preseason 2010, which
made us take note. He was cut by the Pats on
final cut day 2010, picked up by the Browns, cut
by the Browns and picked up by the Pats, then
cut by the Pats, then picked back up by the
Browns and actually got in a game. Then cut
again by the Browns, then picked up again by the
Patriots -- all that in 2010.
Seattle picked him up for the 2011 preseason,
and we thought he looked good watching Seattle
preseason game tape...a possible Seahawks
shocker to get carries in 2011. However, he was
cut by the Seahawks in the final cut day of
2011. Now, Cleveland is taking their 3rd turn
behind the wheel.
All of the above notes to say = the Patriots
and Browns have loved them some Thomas
Clayton! With Pats 3x interest, it makes you
take note that something might be there. With
the Browns taking three chances, it let's you
know...he didn't do anything prior to hurt his
coming back again in 2011...actually might have
left a good impression. All of that is
wonderful, but our computer scouting analysis on
him and recent track record suggest that he is
nothing more than "a body." No different than
Ogbonnaya...which means either could see time
week-to-week and neither might make any relevant
impact.
Armond Smith
The X-factor in all this...
A track/football star at D-III Union College,
where he averaged over 120+ yards rushing per
game and was a record setter at his small
college. Smith was a UDFA pick-up that was
getting a decent look in the preseason, and had
a tremendous 81-yard TD run that turned heads
against the Lions. Smith is lightning fast...we
have no concrete speed measurements...but he was
a major track star, and what we've seen with our
eyes...he is like a Darren Sproles-esque
type runner at 5'9, 185 pounds (not saying he is
Sproles, just a visual observation).
Smith made the team as an UDFA in 2011, which
is impressive. He even got a few carries when
Hillis went down, but then suddenly was waived
by the Browns and then re-signed back to the
practice squad. The Hillis and Hardesty injuries
likely mean that Smith is re-elevated back to
the game roster this week. If there is one RB of
the three that is a game changer -- it is Smith.
Smith is not an every-down RB, but he is
potentially electric in spurts.
The Browns RB situation
in a crystal ball view...
Everyone is going gaga for Ogbonnaya, which
is a funny statement to say...but probably won't
be funny when he disappoints this week. It is
too much to suggest that a RB with no history of
solid/good output will walk into this game
against the Texans and flourish. It is also
foolish for many to assume that just because
they don't know the names of the other Browns
RBs, or their talent capabilities, that this
current situation simply equates to a quick
deduction that Ogbonnaya will get 25+ carries
this week...that's being very short-sighted, and
not doing homework.
We would suspect Ogbonnaya to struggle, and
split some carries with Clayton...with an
outside chance that Armond Smith gets in for
some passing plays attempting to get him out in
space...and see if the speed-magic can happen.
If I had to bet on any RB for the Browns, it
would be Smith...he is the one thing an opposing
team is not preparing for. He is the Browns RB
with talent, and electricity...he also may not
even be elevated to active...and because of that
you can't bet on Smith, or any of the Browns RBs
(to us).
Going forward, the soap opera continues with
Hillis. Even if Hillis is gone for the season,
Ogbonnaya and Clayton just do not excite me as a
Fantasy Football GM...especially with
STL-JAC-CIN-BAL-PIT-ARI-BAL
coming up. Should Ogbonnaya perform OK against
Houston, he should be decent against STL next
week...then you have to move him if he has any
value, ahead of that tough run-defense schedule
ahead.
Long-term for Dynasty League outlooks, we
don't see anything here to get excited about.
Ogbonnaya and Clayton are one-week wonders at
best. Armond Smith has possibilities, but is not
an every-down NFL RB. Hillis is likely gone at
season's end, and becomes a one-hit wonder.
Hardesty possesses the talent on paper in our
system, but has looked terrible in pre and
current season...the injuries may have taken
away his career for the next few years, or
forever.
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