One of the most amazing
data trends we have seen all year is what is
happening with Nate Washington and
Matt Hasselbeck, as well as Nate
Washington with Jake Locker.
Honestly, it is a stunning piece of "hidden"
information...and information you have to
consider if you have Washington considered (or
not) for your Fantasy starting lineup this week.
*You may also enjoy it if you're opponent is
rolling with Nate Washington this week...
The reason we are
highlighting it is…as sure as I am sitting here,
someone possesses Nate Washington and
sees the two big games in-a-row, and has
Washington as a locked in starter for Week-16. I
would be tempted to do the same thing…it’s
almost a no-brain’er on the surface.
After you see our data on
Nate Washington, he is either going to be
the most absolute must start Fantasy Football WR
for Week-16, or he will be a devastating, soul
crushing, WR-start of Week-16.
The reason we are using
such grandiose bravado with the Washington
situation is, there is an amazing trend with
Washington depending upon who is playing QB –
Locker or Hasselbeck. There are three chapters
to this story. The first two chapters are the
set-up…and the final chapter reveals a shocking
twist.
Chapter I – Nate Washington, Kenny Britt, and
Matt Hasselbeck…and Life is Good
Nate Washington is a
very solid NFL WR. We have noted a few times
that we feel Washington is a great #2-3 WR in
the NFL…not as effective as a #1 WR. He needs
someone to “take the heat off," and that person
was Kenny Britt. Through the first three games
of 2011, Kenny Britt was on fire. Nate
Washington was quietly very successful as
well, averaging 7.0 receptions, 9.0 targets,
86.0 yards, and 0.3 TDs per game…with a solid
10.6 Fantasy Football PPG (17.6 PPR PPG).
Life was good, and then
Kenny Britt was lost for the season with
injury…and suddenly Nate Washington was
thrust into the Titans #1 WR spot.
Chapter II – Washington Trouble as a "#1 WR,"
and Enter Damian Williams…
The next six games (without
Britt) are not as kind to Washington. From Weeks
4-10, Washington averaged just 3.0 receptions,
5.0 targets, 40.5 yards, and 0.2 TDs per game…a
massive drop from his Week 1-3 pace (with
Britt). Washington’s Fantasy Football scoring
plunged to a lowly 5.1 PPG (8.1 PPR), a
jaw-dropping 50% haircut in output...and thus
Washington was subsequently jettisoned by many
Fantasy GMs.
Where did all the Titans
passing action go? Damian Williams from
Weeks 4-10 emerged as Hasselbeck’s more
preferred WR pass-target. In the same Weeks 4-10
time span, Williams posted better stats than
Washington in every category with 3.5
receptions, 6.3 targets, 46.0 yards, and 0.7 TDs
per game. Williams became an “it” waiver-wire WR
pickup…posting a TD in 3 of 5 games with a
respectable 8.6 Fantasy Football PPG (12.1 PPR)
from Weeks 4-10. Williams was +3.5 FF PPG better
than Washington from Weeks 4-10.
Williams was being picked
up all over, and Washington was dropped…but then
something bizarre occurred…
Chapter III – Jake Locker the Partial-Game
Magician
In Week-11, Nate
Washington was on his way to another very
dull Fantasy game with Matt Hasselbeck during a
beat-down by the Atlanta Falcons. In this game,
Washington had 5 catches with 47 yards and no
TDs...and it looked like the Falcons would walk
away with this game easily. Enter Jake Locker…
Locker jumps into the game
in the 2nd-half and nearly leads a Titans
comeback victory. The main ingredient in the
comeback – Washington pops 4 catches for 68
yards and 2 TDs in less than two quarters with
Locker…once again, the world is excited about
Washington for Fantasy Football.
In Weeks 12-13, Hasselbeck
gets the Titans QB starts (and finishes)...not
Locker. The return of Hasselbeck neutralizes
Washington for a two-game output of just 2.5
receptions on 6.5 targets for 26.0 yards and 0
TDs, leading to a measly 2.6 Fantasy Football
PPG (5.1 PPR PPG).
If you are keeping count,
Washington had 6 dud games after Kenny Britt
was lost to injury, followed by a half-a-dud in
Week-11 with Hasselbeck, then 2 more duds in
Weeks 12-13 with Hasselbeck. Every moment from
Week 4-13 that Washington was with Hasselbeck;
it meant very little for Fantasy Football
output. The only breath of life in that span was
a half-game of excitement with Jake Locker.
In Week-14, here we go
again…1 catch for 13 yards for Washington with
Hasselbeck to start the game, but Hasselbeck is
injured in the 2nd-quarter…and is relieved by
Jake Locker. Washington proceeds to go nuts
with Locker…5 catches for 117 yards and 1 TD in
less than three-quarters of play with Locker.
In Week-15, we’ve seen this
movie before. Washington has 4 catches for 35
yards and no TDs with Hasselbeck, in over 3+
quarters of play. Enter Jake Locker
again, with only 6 minutes left…and Washington
posts 3 catches for 27 yards and has another TD.
The
Locker/Hasselbeck splits (since the Britt
injury)
It may be statistically
un-sound to isolate small sections of three
separate games, and make a grand
conclusion...but with the small amount of data,
there appears to be something magical between
Washington and Locker. If you don’t buy that…do
note that there is more than enough data to
prove that there is something un-magical about
Washington with Hasselbeck. If you think that
you are smart by pushing Washington into the
lineup for Week-16, based on his recent
success…note that all of it is with Jake
Locker, and not Matt Hasselbeck.
If we piece this together
with fractional games played, it is shocking
what the stats look like depending upon whom the
Titans QB is. The three partial-game Locker
efforts we are counting as 0.50, 0.75, and 0.25
games played…so essentially Washington’s stats
per game are based on a total of 1.5 games
played with Locker (thus 9.5 games played with
Hasselbeck since Week-4). The comparison:
-
8.0 rec, 11.3 targets, 141.3 yards, 2.7 TDs
per game = with Locker
-
3.5 rec, 5.9 targets, 41.0 yards, 0.1
TDs per game = with Hasselbeck
Nate Washington has
been a Fantasy Football disaster paired with
Matt Hasselbeck since Week-4. Why? I have no
idea…especially when compared to the
Hall-of-Fame numbers that Washington is putting
up with Locker. All I know is, if you were
betting on Washington to score 10.0+ Fantasy
Football points every time he played in a game
with Matt Hasselbeck…you’d be 0 fer' 10
right now. I wouldn't really be loving those
odds...to suddenly think that something great
could happen in Week-16 for Washington for the
very first time all season with Hasselbeck.
The big Fantasy Football
takeaway – do NOT play Washington this week if
you think Hasselbeck will start and end the
game. DO start Washington if you think Locker
gets in the game at all…and if Locker starts, it
may be something incredible.
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