Nothing like a good performance on a
nationally (kinda) televised game to get
everyone juices flowing, or overflowing on a
particular player. It especially helps, if that
player is a rookie...then the possibilities are
endless! In the first 2011 Thursday Night game
on NFL Network -- Oakland Raiders rookie WR
Denarius Moore had two TDs, and San Diego
Chargers rookie Vincent Brown had two TDs
as well (but only one of them counted). A
spotlight game, national television, hot
rookies...you can guess what our e-mail was
loaded up with today...
This is not new ground for Moore, he has had
some moments of excitement already early on in
2011...then a quick die-down. Brown is just
entering the scene, making him a little more
curious. Let's take a deeper look at these two
rookie WRs, and their Fantasy Football prospects
ahead...
Vincent Brown
A 3rd-Round Draft pick out of San Diego State
by the San Diego Chargers in 2011, which we
thought was a little bit too high. Brown is
definitely a pro-prospect, but not sure he was
3rd-Round quality.
Brown was a star at San Diego State, posting
69 catches for 1,352 yards and 10 TDs in his
2010 Senior season. Brown did not do his stat
compiling against all weaker competition -- he
posted a 4 catch for 167 yards and 2 TD game
against highly-ranked TCU, as well as a 8 catch
for 184 yards game with 3 TDs against Utah. Not
that the Mountain West Conference is a hot bed
of pass-defense, but Brown performed well...as
should have been expected of a pro prospect.
Where the wheels come off a little bit on
Brown is his physical translation to the NFL.
Brown is 5'11, 187 pounds...an OK/stable size
for a possession/slot type WR. Brown has a
couple key positive physical characteristics as
well, very large hands...well above-average, and
he also possesses superior agility metrics. At
this point, we would have Brown in the possible
"future star" camp. What derails Brown is his
straight-line speed. A very weak 4.68 40-time at
the NFL-Combine, and as we analyze his various
body-type and speed burst...we see a red-flag
with the speed aspects, and also some tendencies
towards being an injury risk. The speed
measurements really threw our grades on him,
outside of that he has a lot of positive
characteristics. At best, he could be a quality
possession WR...in the mold of a Davone Bess.
What we don't see is a future elite NFL WR.
We see a solid WR, a WR to note if paired in a
successful offense/high-level QB...but not the
next star WR. Paired with Philip Rivers
he is useful, and can/will have games like he
did versus Oakland. As teams adjust to Brown, we
think he becomes just average. Legedu Naanee
was a much better prospect in our system, and
never got far in the Chargers system, nor did a
weaker/similar prospect Seyi Ajirotutu...after
capturing the hearts of some for a few weeks
last year. Given a disinterested Vincent
Jackson, a slowing Antonio Gates, and
an oft-injured Malcom Floyd...Brown
should be solid in 2011, but just not seeing
star material for him long-term.
Denarius Moore
Moore was selected in the 5th-Round of the
2011 NFL Draft, and is one reason why we
scratched our heads at the 3rd-Round selection
of Brown. Moore was one of the top-10 WRs that
we rated in this 2011 class. Moore was one of
five 2011 "small WR" (small in our lexicon =
under 6'2, and under 210 pounds) prospects that
achieved a good/great rating in our computer
scouting. The 2011 "small WR" class ratings for
potential future elite WRs were:
- Torrey Smith (strong future elite)
- Kealoha Pilares (strong future elite)
- Edmond Gates (possible future elite)
- Denarius Moore (possible future elite)
- Aldrick Robinson (possible future elite)
While Brown is a more run of the mill, solid
prospect...Moore has something that most NFL WRs
do not possess in our system analysis -- elite
speed, with elite agility. When we start
filtering our database for similar physical
tools and high performance, we start to see
names like DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Mike
Thomas and Mike Wallace as names in &
around Moore's metrics.
What you saw of Moore vs. San Diego, is what
the possibilities are...much like Mike
Wallace -- you can't play him tight, or he
will fly past you deep. If you lay-off him too
far in coverage, he can take a bubble screen and
run into/through traffic. Moore's data in our
analysis is one big step ahead of Brown.
However, we have been mostly down on Moore for
this season, and lukewarm on his Fantasy
Football prospects. While he was a top-10
computer rated WR for us heading into the 2011
NFL Draft, we only had him as the #19th best
rookie WR for a Dynasty league rookie
draft....this summer we wrote:
....#19 = Denarius Moore, Oakland
Raiders -- 5th Round Pick (Tennessee)...Moore
has very good measurables as an NFL WR prospect,
and he backed them up with a solid performance
at Tennessee. Moore has great speed/burst and
great agility, and is overall very athletic.
Moore had a weaker bench press at the NFL
Combine, which may set him back a year from
being ready to perform in the NFL. Moore doesn't
land with a great passing team in Oakland, and
is surrounded with similar WRs like him (fast,
agile, thinner). We like Moore, but he is not a
"must have"...and being on Oakland really
downgrades his Fantasy Football worthiness.....
Much of what happens with a "small WR" in the
NFL, has everything to do with what
team/depth-chart they wind up on...and most
importantly what QB they are playing with.
Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees make
careers for "small WRs"...Jason Campbell
and Terrelle Pryor break careers. That's
a reason why we were so negative on Moore (for
2011) after his 5 catch/146 yard performance in
Week-2...it wasn't going to hold up with
Jason Campbell, nor would it hold with
similarly skilled Jacoby Ford there.
While Ford was out hurt the first few weeks,
Moore shined. When Ford started coming back,
Moore had a string of three games from Week 5-7
with just 2 catches on 15 targets. Campbell and
Ford were a 2011 barrier.
What has happened since those barriers were
removed? Moore is the #1 most targeted, and
highest Fantasy Football scoring, Raiders WR in
Carson Palmer's two starts. In this
Chargers game, do you remember what happened
with Jacoby Ford? Very early on in the
game, Ford has a brilliant 41-yard catch and was
on his way to another big day (Ford had bigger
output last week than Moore), but was injured on
the play...then Moore went nuts the rest of the
game, partially because the Ford barrier was
removed.
In summer 2011, we saw a dysfunctional
franchise with a weak QB...and a very similarly
skilled player to Moore in Ford. None of those
factors added up to a clear star outlook for
Moore. However, now he has a new legit QB, plus
different ownership/management, and only Ford
remaining as somewhat of a barrier. The Raiders
cannot go forward starting both Moore and Ford,
and if one of them is relegated to the 3rd WR
role...it's likely to result in sporadic/erratic
Fantasy Football performance...enough to drive
you mad. To bet on Moore, is to bet against
Ford...which may work out, but Ford is an
impediment that we'd rather not deal with if
given another option.
Moore's Fantasy Football prospects are
definitely looking up. Looking up short-term,
especially if Ford is out for any time with a
sprain, and looking up long-term if he can
solidly get past Ford on the depth chart.
For Fantasy Football 2011, I play Moore now
anytime Ford isn't playing...and am skittish if
Ford is good-to-go.
For Dynasty Leagues/long-term, Moore's a
talent worth holding onto now that the Raiders
player personnel decisions are in different
hands...especially as long as Carson Palmer
is the QB (and not Terrelle Pryor).
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