FANTASY FOOTBALL  2011 ~ The Robert Meachem Window of Opportunity?

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News: Marques Colston injury, Robert Meachem opportunity? - Fantasy Football 2011

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FANTASY FOOTBALL 2011 - WR

By R.C. Fischer
Release Date:
9/10/2011

The Robert Meachem Window of Opportunity?

Robert Meachem, Lance Moore, Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Jimmy Graham, 2011 Fantasy Football, Dynasty Leagues

I have always been a Robert Meachem fan. Actually, our computer scouting system told us to be a fan...so I became one. The problem with being a Meachem fan in Fantasy Football is, he mostly leaves you "wanting." I've always liked Meachem, but I have also stayed far away from him for Fantasy Football. However, our paths have crossed more than once in Fantasy Football.

Perhaps, like you, in a 10-team (or occasionally a 12-team league), a surprise WR/Flex scratch or a bad bye week scenario hits...and I'm scrambling through the mire looking for a WR for the week. I think, "at least Meachem will give me something, and maybe a TD." Somewhere along the way each season in some league, Meachem and I have a "one-week stand." I usually don't call him back, however.

Nothing against Meachem, it's just that the Saints WR situation (for Fantasy Football) is maddening. Great for the NFL, but bad for FF. Meachem is good, but Marques Colston is a better built deep threat -- Meachem has measured faster for speed, but Colston is fast enough...plus Colston is 6'4+ and 225. Colston is the better deep threat option for the Saints.

Lance Moore is a perfectly built slot/possession/Wes Welker-type WR. Moore is very athletic, with a huge hand-size. Moore is much better suited for the short passing game over Meachem.

Moore is an underneath Brees safety blanket, Colston is the more visible red-zone option, and now Jimmy Graham is on the cusp of becoming the best TE (receiving) in football. Then there are Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson, who are targeted every once and awhile. This is why we hate Saints WRs for Fantasy Football, and RBs too. I would be stoked about it as a Saints fan, not so much for Fantasy Football.

However, the heavens may have opened...and beam of light may be getting ready to shine on Robert Meachem...at least for a few weeks.

 

Robert Meachem, circa 2006...

If we get in the way-back machine (all the way back to the ancient days of 2006), and look at Robert Meachem coming out of the University of Tennessee...everything about him would have pointed toward an NFL star.

In Meachem's Junior season at Tennessee, he posted 71 catches for 1,298 yards and caught 11 TDs in a 13-game 2006 season. Meachem also produced solid/good games against tougher competition. Meachem went to the NFL Combine and ran ultra-fast times in the 10, 20, 40-yard dashes (4.39 in the 40). Meachem also measured with solid times for agility with a nice vertical ability. Put all those ingredients into the blender, and out comes a 2007 1st-Round draft pick (#27) for the New Orleans Saints.

All that NFL "upside," but Meachem arrives on a team that just came off a 2006-season with a 7th-Round draft pick WR named Marques Colston, who dropped 1,038 yards and 8 TDs in his rookie debut season. Meachem's rookie debut is far less scintillating than Colston's...Meachem has knee-surgery, and does not play in his rookie season.

 

Robert Meachem without Marques Colston...

In 2008, Meachem does play...sporadically. He finishes this debut season with 12 receptions for 289 yards and 3 TDs (plus another TD rushing). It was not a dreadful debut, but not 1st-Round/big-money worthy production. Especially, a poor ROI, when you consider that in 2008, an undrafted WR named Lance Moore splashed onto the NFL scene with a huge season for the Saints -- 79 receptions for 928 yards and 10 TDs.

7th-Round draft pick Marques Colston is a full-fledged NFL star WR, and Lance Moore has become a break-out performer...and that left people asking, "who is Robert Meachem again?". The former 1st-Rounder is debatably the 3rd-4th best WR on his team.

However, there was something (potentially) hiding in Meachem's under-whelming 2008...

Marques Colston missed Games 2-7 in 2008, with a broken thumb. The door opened for Meachem to see more #1 WR-type playing time, and he took some advantage of it. In games 2-5 in 2008, Meachem averaged 1.8 receptions for 58.8 yards per game, and he grabbed 2 TDs in those 4 games. Meachem scored 8.9 Fantasy Football points per game in that stretch, 10.7 PPR PPG. Unfortunately, Meachem got nicked up the next few games and when Colston came back...Meachem saw little targeting the rest of the season.

This is the only stretch of meaningful time where we see where Meachem playing in his career, with Colston not playing.

 

Robert Meachem without Lance Moore...

Lance Moore became a star in 2008, but was mostly hurt in mid-late 2009. When Moore fully dropped out of the lineup...Robert Meachem became a star.

Moore missed games 8-13 in 2009, in those 6 games Meachem averaged 4.2 catches for 67.2 yards per game -- snatching an impressive 6 TDs in 6 games.  When Moore missed Game-15, Meachem caught 5 passes for 66 yards and another TD. Meachem had an elite Fantasy Football level 13.4 PPG in that 7-game non-Lance Moore span, with 17.7 PPR PPG.

Robert Meachem caught 9 TD passes in 2009 total. Meachem had 7 of his 9 TDs when Lance Moore posted no stats/did not play in a game. When Moore did play, Meachem dropped to 1.9 catches for 34.4 yards per game with just 2 TDs in 7 games. Meachem scored a very under-whelming 5.2 Fantasy Football PPG, 7.0 PPR in that span where Moore was playing.

Moore, nor Colston, missed any games (not counting Week-17 games) in the 2010 season. Meachem didn't either, but fell back to 2.9 receptions and 43.2 yards per game; 6.0 Fantasy Football PPG, 8.9 PPR.

In 2011, opening day -- Lance Moore was out with an injury. What did Meachem do? Of course, he scored a TD.

Robert Meachem has played 46 games in his NFL career over 3 seasons (+ 1 game for 2011), and in his career, he has caught 18 TD passes...a TD every 2.6 games. Meachem has played 8 games without Lance Moore, and has caught 8 TDs...you can do the TD per game math on that one.

Meachem has caught 10 of his 18 career TDs when either Colston or Moore is not playing...10 TDs in 12 games for Meachem without Colston or Moore. That's just 8 TDs in Meachem's other 34 games, a TD catch per every 4.3 games.

 

Meachem without Colston and/or Moore next week?

Colston is now out for approximately 4-weeks with a broken collarbone. Moore is still day-to-day. The Saints are playing the Bears at home/in the dome/on a "fast track." Obviously, we expect to see a lot of passing from the Saints...and as well, the data would suggest, we are going to see a Robert Meachem TD catch in there too.

Depending upon your WR situation, I would jump on the Meachem train and ride it for a few weeks as needed. The probability he posts a TD per game, is pretty high according to history.

 

By R.C. Fischer
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