In 2009, Devin Aromashodu scored 2 TDs
in his meaningless Week-17 game against the
Detroit Lions. The week prior, Aromashodu caught
a game-winning TD on Monday Night Football.
Predictably, a minor "Aromashodu-mania" swept
across the land. The following season, in 2010,
most every preseason Fantasy Football WR ranking
listed Aromashodu as a big "sleeper" for 2010.
Aromashodu delivered a 10 catch, 149 yard, 0 TD
season total effort in 2010, a huge letdown
after becoming a Week-17 darling in 2009.
In 2010, Jerome Simpson caught 12
passes for 123 yards and 1 TD against Baltimore
in Week-17. The week prior, Simpson had 6
catches for 124 yards and 2 TDs. Jerome
Simpson thus became a hot Fantasy Football
name going into 2011...less hot when the Bengals
(not impressed by the Week-17 effort either
apparently...) drafted A.J. Green.
Simpson did not have a single game in 2011 as
good as his two games late in 2010.
It happens every year. A big Week-17
performance will lead at least one player every
season to become a "hot" sleeper for the
following season.
Week-17 performances are almost completely
ridiculous, unnatural, and unreliable. Week-17
is a convergence of players going for individual
statistical/contractual goals (rushing titles,
yardage bonuses, etc.), mixed with teams who
have nothing to play for, mixed with teams who
are playing do-or-die games, mixed with players
who have their bags packed for a Caribbean
vacation, mixed with star players/starters
sitting, mixed with lame-duck coaches, mixed
with interim coaches trying to make one last
impression, mixed with more relaxed play calling
(if the team is "done" for the season) or
uptight play calling (if a do-or-die game),
mixed with young players trying to prove
something.
Week-17 really is a bizarre cacophony of
misfit events, all converging at one time...and
thus, it is very difficult to make a rational
decision based upon any outcome from it.
However, that won't stop us (or the mainstream
sports media) from assigning over-importance to
it. It's the last time we see many of these
players/teams for the year...so the image is
burned in our minds. Most football fans, and
media, perpetually have their entire reality
consumed in "what just happened." Hey, remember
when everyone thought Tim Tebow was
horrible 9 weeks ago, and great 3 weeks ago, and
now...
No one is perfect making Fantasy Football
player evaluations. Your only hope for more
successful player evaluation is, to eliminate as
many simple mistakes as possible. One of the
cornerstones of our mathematical approach to
player scouting and evaluation...is to eliminate
from consideration, or de-emphasize, performance
in games that are not likely a true
representation of the player's true
ability/output. We don't care (fictitious
example) if an SEC college QB threw for 457
yards and 5 TDs in a game against a Division-II
team...what does that prove? When it comes to
the NFL, an item we completely ignore/erase
is...Week-17 performances, we act as if they do
not exist/never happened.
When you act as if Week-17 in 2011 never
happened...you would go back to having very
little concern for Packers QB Matt Flynn.
Because most people will not heed this Week-17
memory-erase advice, Matt Flynn is now
the "second coming" in 2012. I have had several
people suddenly email/text me that they wish
Flynn would be their favorite NFL teams QB in
2012. Worse yet, I have had many people asking
what they should give up in Dynasty Leagues to
acquire Flynn. The desperation, and subsequent
pending tragedy, of this is ominous...similar to
what it must have been like when the final
people were buying stocks at the top of the
pending Dot Com-Bubble about to burst in the
late 90s.
If you ignore Week-17 versus Detroit on
1-1-2012, if you go back just one day to a 2011
mindset...what did you really think about
Matt Flynn?
The 2010 Matt Flynn mini-hype...
Prior to yesterday...most everything that
people based their Flynn "love" on, was his
scrappy Week-15 Monday Night Football game
against the New England Patriots in 2010. Flynn
led a valiant effort (but a loss) at New
England. Flynn had 3 TDs/1 INT on the "big
stage," and millions witnessed...and thus Flynn
as "one to watch" became a new Football
"reality." It was a nice game/effort, but
forgotten in the wake of the national stage
game...was the game prior where Flynn went 15-26
for 177 yards and 0 TD/1 INT in relief of
concussed Aaron Rodgers against a lowly
(at the time) Detroit Lions team. Which effort
is the reality? Is Flynn the scrappy QB, who
almost beat New England, or the mediocre QB, who
couldn't lead a scoring drive against Detroit in
a loss a week earlier?
The thing is, we cannot go overboard on just
two games performance for any player. There are
many factors to consider...game preparations,
defensive coordinators who don't have "a book"
on a seldom seen QB, game motivations, etc. We
don't know, what we don't know after two games.
John Skelton had 4 TDs and 2 INTs in his
first two games this year, putting up much
better yards/TDs than Flynn in his first two
games in 2010 (comparing games they played in
after their rookie seasons). After being pressed
into action and producing two solid games this
year, Skelton then put up 7 TDs and 12 INTs in
his next 6 games. Cam Newton had two 400+
yard passing games in his first two games this
2011 season...then threw for 300+ yards just one
time in his last 14 games (and none in his last
12 games). Curtis Painter had 4 TDs/0
INTs in his first two starts of 2011...then 2
TDs/6 INTs after that (and a benching). Do you
think the Buffalo Bills would like to
re-negotiate today with Ryan Fitzpatrick
after the Bills were bluffed by his hot 2011
start? What happened when teams figured out
Tim Tebow over the last few weeks? I could
go on...
What I have based my Matt Flynn
"temperature" on, has been our college scouting
formulas looking at his 2007 performance...and
our system tells us that Flynn is a backup-level
type of NFL QB; not probable as a future elite
NFL QB.
Our College Scouting Analysis of
Flynn...
Flynn led the LSU Tigers to a 2007 National
Championship. Flynn was a solid/unspectacular
player in his only season of being the starting
QB for LSU. The most major red-flag that jumps
out on Flynn, is a 56.3% Completion Percentage
in 2007...there are no current elite NFL QBs
that threw below a 60% Comp Pct in college (in
fact, fact they are usually well above). Packers
teammate Aaron Rodgers (using a
convenient comparison) was a 66.1% passer his
final/Junior season at Cal, and improved that
against tougher competition. Flynn was similarly
inaccurate against all levels of competition. In
Flynn's final 10 college games, he had games of
60%+ Comp Pct just three times.
On a 2007 LSU team with two future NFL WRs (Brandon
LaFell, Early Doucet), Flynn did not lead an
offense that was notorious for its passing
prowess. Flynn was solid, but did nothing that
made anyone standup and take notice. To add to
Flynn's issues looking ahead to the NFL, he had
one of the smallest hand-measurements of any NFL
QB prospect that we have in our database. Along
with having small hands, Flynn has a shorter arm
length measurement as well.
If you are investing heavily in Matt Flynn
(be it NFL GM, or Fantasy Football GM)...you are
investing in a shorter (just barely over 6'2),
heavier/stockier (231 pounds coming out of
college), small-handed, short-wing span, slower
foot-speed, non-agile, inaccurate in college QB.
That description doesn't roll off the tongue as
sparkling as..."wow, 6 TDs in one game...he
just made himself millions!"
The 6 Passing TDs hysteria...
First and foremost, we should throw Flynn's
Week-17 game in the trash bin of our memory
banks...never to taint our judgment. Week-17 is
almost always a crazy aberration...I hate this
week of play. However, it is too late...it is
seared in our brains; so we have to deal with
it. Before I break this game down, may I also
ask, "did you watch the Packers vs. Lions game?"
All of it? With an eye on scouting Flynn...like
an NFL team would? If you did not really watch
the game, what are you basing your excitement
on?
I just went back and re-watched it...let me
give you my take on the 6 TDs.
As an opening salvo, I must say that the
Lions played as if they were disinterested in
being there. The Lions played a ton of soft
zones, and barely put any pressure on the QB.
The Lions may have the worst CB play among any
of the NFL playoff teams, and if they win any
playoff games...the scores will be in the 30s+
on both sides. Had the Lions put 5'9 +/- CB
Alphonso Smith on the nearly 6'3 Jordy
Nelson any more in that game, Nelson may
have had 6 TDs himself (he did have three). Here
are my impressions of watching these 6 Flynn
passing TDs:
-
TD-1 = From about 7 yards out, Flynn
drops back one step, throws a quick-pass to
Jordy Nelson. Nelson stiff arms the
defender and strolls into the end-zone.
Flynn was the QB, but all the credit to
Jordy.
-
TD-2 = A dump/screen pass to Ryan Grant,
who promptly takes it 80-yards for TD.
Credit to Grant. Furthermore, did I mention
how atrocious the Lions defense was? They
were a complete embarrassment in a more
must-win game for them.
-
TD-3 = The Lions jump off-sides, free
play...Flynn lofts one deep to Jordy. Jordy
muscles past the CB, runs it in for a
36-yard TD. Good idea by Flynn, but
again...credit to Nelson.
-
TD-4 = Jordy splits two defenders, and Flynn
hits him in stride for a 58-yard TD. Nice
job Flynn...and again, how good was Jordy?
How good was our preseason call of Jordy as
a top-20 FF WR for 2011 (sorry, back to
Flynn)?
-
TD-5 = Flynn throws a basic 7-10 yard
crossing pattern over the middle to
Donald Driver, who just goes past the
defense as if they were being paid-off to
lay down...and thus a 35-yard TD pass is
credited to Flynn. Credit should go to
Driver...and the Lions defense.
-
TD-6 = From four yards out, Jermichael
Finley has one-on-one coverage against
what looked like his infant son covering
him. The CB (A. Spievey) lined up
against Finley all alone. The camera comes
in on Flynn's eyes pre-snap (which Flynn is
looking/staring right at this match-up as if
he can't believe it). On the snap...Spievey
turns his back to Flynn and backpedals,
giving Finley a ton of space. Flynn throws
the ball quick/short by design...and Finley
stops to catch it in the end-zone, and
Spievey is still backpedaling...Spievey
never looked at the ball the whole time. The
play/coverage was as embarrassing (for DET)
as most of the prior TDs pass plays. I
didn't realize just how bad the Detroit
secondary was until watching this
game...maybe they just all had a "bad" game.
Yes, Flynn should get some credit for being
the QB during all this...someone had to deliver
the ball. Honestly, I watched this back thinking
how lucky Flynn was, and how bad Detroit's
secondary was...and how great Jordy Nelson
is. Never did I think, "hey, I need to
re-consider this negative Flynn position."
The announcers are going to do everything
they can (unconsciously) to sway you. If I heard
one more time yesterday that, "Flynn just
made himself a very rich man"...I'll gag. As
I watched the game back again on tape, every
time Flynn threw a TD...on & on the announcers
went about how great Flynn was. Barely, a word
about how stupendous Jordy Nelson was.
Barely, a word about how awful the Lions played.
One announcer broached the subject of how
"suspect" the Lions defense looked...but that
was quickly smacked down by the other announcer
who exclaimed, "they'll forget about this quick,
and they'll watch tape and make adjustments."
Great...a backup QB just dropped 6 TDs on the
Lions, and they lost a kinda must-win game (to
avoid the Saints in the 1st-Round); and all we
get is "they will make adjustments."
The Lions horrible CB matchups, lack of
pressure, and overall poor defensive play
contributed to at least 50% of this story...but
that angle was mostly ignored, or brought up
"softly." The story-line that was pounded into
our collective souls... "golly-gee Matt
Flynn is good." Now, that is the new
mantra for all...not for me, I've seen this
story too many times before.
I don't think that I am blindly "married" to
this anti-Flynn position..."seeing what I wanted
to see." The only thing worse than being
incorrect about a player evaluation initially,
is being wrong a second-time...when the world is
going the other way. If I had seen greatness in
Flynn yesterday (or prior), I would want to jump
on it and make plans accordingly...I want to win
Fantasy Football games/titles in 2012, not just
chirp about players our computer system called
correctly (although that's fun too). Flynn looks
solid/decent...like a second-coming of Ryan
Fitzpatrick minus the athleticism or Harvard
education (but does have the beard).
I just don't see star with Flynn, and our
computer scouting formulas do not see one. I
don't think anyone else actually saw a star here
either, because they didn't actually see
anything...but a Week-17 box score and 30-second
highlights.
*If you picked up Flynn as Aaron
Rodgers Fantasy Football handcuff protection
a while ago, or ahead of his pending NFL
free-agency...I implore you, you are sitting on
a temporary gold-mine -- you have to deal Flynn
to anyone hysterical for him right now. Flynn's
value will never be higher than at this moment.
Every day that passes from yesterday will fade
this into a muddier memory, and you also run the
risk that he is a Packers QB again in 2012...and
the Flynn trade value evaporates.
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