Knowshon Moreno is gone for the year,
and Willis McGahee is maybe/likely going
to miss this week's game with the Jets. That
leaves us with Lance Ball, who ran for 96
yards last week, so he has some Fantasy GMs
excited this week for free agency possibilities.
The question is...is there anything there with
Ball talent-wise to succeed against the Jets
this week, and maybe have legs the rest of 2011?
Let's look at Ball's background, and see what
his projection might be going forward...
Lance Ball, the Maryland
years...
Unlike Chris Ogbonnaya, who is a
similar RB...and who was all the rage two weeks
ago, Lance Ball actually was productive in
college. As a Sophomore in 2005, Ball was the
3rd leading rusher (per game) in the ACC . Ball
tailed off a bit each year after his 2005
season, with total yardage tallies from 2005-07
of 1,056, 875, and 856. With each of those three
seasons, Ball's TD productivity grew...6, 8, and
12 TDs in his Senior season.
Ball was solid in college, but not elite by
any stretch of the imagination. He had one 100+
yard rushing game in 13 games as a Senior, and
was the 2nd leading rusher on the team (Keon
Lattimore was #1 rusher, and we all know who
that is, right? He is currently on the
Chambersburg Cardinals Semi-Pro team). Even
Ball's one 100+ yard game, was on a career high
32 carries...for 109 yards against Boston
College.
Ball's mediocre/solid college career did not
land him an invite to the NFL Combine in 2008,
and he went undrafted. Ball ran a decent 4.56
40-time at his Pro-Day workout, but ran slow 10
& 20-yard dashes, with weaker agility metrics.
Ball is 5'9, 215 pounds...so he is a nice-sized
NFL RB, with OK speed and below-average agility.
The summary of Ball from a scouting perspective
would be, that he is a short yardage specialist
at best...not a RB with big upside, who will
break-off long runs.
The NFL, apparently, wasn't real excited
either. Ball went undrafted in 2008.
Lance Ball, a travelling
man...(..."made a lot of stops"...)
Undrafted, Ball was given a UDFA tryout with
the St. Louis Rams in 2008. He was cut by the
Rams before the 2008 season, and signed by the
Colts. Ball debuted with the Colts that same
rookie year in Week-17, and ran for 83 yards on
13 carries. So impressed were the Colts, he was
let go in 2009, and soon signed with the
Titans...and then cut by the Titans a few weeks
later. After the Titans short stint, Denver gave
him a shot on the practice squad in late-2009.
In 2010, Ball got in some carries due to injury
issues for Denver, and had 41 uninspiring
carries on the season.
Injuries have breathed life into Ball this
2011 season. Ball had three games with 6 carries
before Week-10, with a 3-game total of 18
carries for 105 yards. Then this past week, Ball
posted 96 yards rushing, albeit on 30 carries.
All this leads to a dilemma on Ball, and we
are at a crossroads on him...is he going to have
respectable Fantasy Football output worth
investing in, or not?
Lance Ball, the future
from Week-11 on...
Under normal circumstances, we would look at
Lance Ball's college performance metrics,
his below-average physical metrics, and his 4
teams in 3 years bounce around the NFL, and say
-- "no way." However, the more we look at
this...we have to consider -- in this offense
(all run, no pass) Ball might get 15+ carries a
game for the rest of 2011. I love talent, and we
don't see much of that in Ball...but we also
love opportunity, and Ball is potentially going
to get a bunch of it the next few weeks.
The profile for Ball is a more short-yardage,
between the tackles grinder...like Chris
Ogbonnaya. Ball is not going to do anything
special...you just hope some of his carries
result in a TD for Fantasy Football purposes,
and that's where the trouble is. With Tim Tebow,
the short-yardage TD is not likely as
available...Tebow is taking it. If not Tebow
taking thr short TD, then McGahee is. What you
are bound to wind up with in a Lance Ball
Fantasy Football start in the wishbone offense
is...15 carries for 52 yards, 1 catch for 5
yards, and no TDs. For Fantasy Football, not
awesome...
Before we totally throw Ball away, he is the
RB behind high injury-risk Willis McGahee...so
you have to take him seriously on a potential
steady 15+ carry per game workload upcoming.
Kendall Hunter is much more talented, but
goes back into hiding when Gore comes back.
Ogbonnaya will never be heard from again whether
Hillis/Hardesty return soon or not, his
schedule will wipe him out. With Ball you know
he will get 20+ carries this week, and maybe
10-15+ per game the rest of 2011. Ball is worth
considering, but a very limited upside, and too
many speed bumps in his way...if there are
better options out there, I would pursue them.
At best, this is a one-week wonder...and versus
the Jets for the one-week, not sure I'm that
excited.
If your league's RB pool has dried up, Ball
is likely to offer 10-15+ carries a game the
rest of 2011 with limited Fantasy Football
scoring upside. However, Ball does offer the
upside that he is the #1 RB on another McGahee
injury...the #1 RB on a pure option team. It's
really a dilemma, and maybe worth kicking the
tires on depending on what options are available
out there. We have such limited data on the
wishbone offenses in the NFL...it's hard to read
what will happen. Our guess on Ball is
decent/lots of carries, under 60-80 yards
consistently, and low/no TDs.
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