In about 24 +/- hours, there may be a
complete Josh Johnson frenzy. Here is how it
might occur:
1) Josh Freeman is questionable
with a shoulder injury. He is probably 60-40 to
play this week, in our estimation.
2) After a train-wreck of a Tampa Bay season,
and a Josh Freeman nightmare of 12
TD/16 INT...we wonder if the Bucs would like to
take a bigger glimpse of what they have in
Josh Johnson.
3) If Johnson is named the starter this week,
the mainstream sports media is going to do their
one inch "deep-dive" of research (if they bother
at all). When/if they take a look at Johnson's
bio, they are going to see a QB that threw for
43 TDs and 1 INT at the University of San Diego
in his senior season (2007) in 10 games. Then
the thought may also occur that he is a running
QB, and 4.4-to-4.5 40-time type of runner.
When the mainstream does the math of gawking
at the college passing totals, considering the
running aspect a la Tebow or Newton (weaker NFL
passing QBs, but are more elite for Fantasy
Football purposes)...the story will be a
one-liner something along the lines of, "hey,
this guy threw for 43 TDs and just 1 INT in
college, and he can run, watch-out." That
surface reporting Johnson may set off a Fantasy
Football free agent frenzy...and the thing is,
it will actually be onto something.
...or the mainstream media will just discount
Johnson as a QB they haven't really heard of, do
no homework, and gloat about what a play the
Titans-Defense is.
We think if Josh Johnson ever
gets steady playing time as a starter, the
Buccaneers fans will rally to the exciting
backup QB and re-consider Josh Freeman
as their franchise QB...setting off a QB debate.
From a Fantasy Football perspective, Johnson may
save the season for those in a QB crisis this
week.
Let's take a look at Josh Johnson,
and what the possibilities might be...for at
least this one week....
Josh Johnson the college
years...
I have a feeling that Josh Johnson
is going to set off a minor whirlwind of
attention (again, should Freeman be ruled out)
when people look at his college stats again. A
Senior season of 68.4% Comp Pct, 298.8 yards per
game passing, 72.6 yards per game rushing, a
passer rating of 198.3, with the 43 TD/1 INT
total...is simply amazing. I think we will hear
"43 TD/1 INT" all day Sunday morning, and some
of that talk beginning in places just a few
moments after Freeman is announced as out (if he
is).
It just wasn't one great season in college.
In his Junior year, Johnson threw for 35 TDs and
5 INTs, and 31 TD/8 INT the year before that. In
three years as a starter, Johnson compiled 109
TDs and just 14 INTs. He also ran for another 17
TDs.
We do have to keep in perspective that
Johnson rolled these stats up against the likes
of teams like Butler (this isn't college
basketball), Dayton, Davidson, Drake, etc. We
also have to admit that no matter what the
level; Johnson had video game-esque
stats...something beyond special, but still hard
to process/comprehend their value.
Johnson was an NFL Combine invitee in 2008,
and ran with 4.5 40-speed...registering in the
4.4's on at least one run. Standing 6'2+ with
speed and a surprisingly stronger than expected
arm, plus the big college stats, landed Johnson
as a 5th-Round NFL Draft pick. Which is a little
surprising (low) given the world's
affinity for mobile QBs. In 2008, Vince
Young had come off of two solid seasons
as the Titans QB. Perhaps it was a small college
QB bias, maybe something deeper...we don't know.
Josh Johnson the Tampa
Bay years...
Johnson sat in 2008, not seeing the field. In
2009, he was pressed into to duty for four
starts...and unimpressive duty at that -- 50.4%
Comp Pct, 4 TD/8 INT. In Week-6 against
Carolina, Johnson had 5 fumbles (1 lost).
In 2010, the Buccaneers drafted Raheem
Morris's K-State buddy Josh
Freeman...and thus Johnson has been
relegated to a gimmick player, taking a few
snaps here & there. One thing to note in 2010,
in limited time, Johnson completed 14 of 16
passes (87.5%) during these on & off gimmick
opportunities. Johnson started the season 8 for
8 passing, including 6 for 6 in Week-3 against
Pittsburgh in garbage time.
This season, Johnson has barely been a
gimmick...getting into just a few games for a
total of 7 throws and 5 rushing attempts.
Johnson has become a mostly forgotten entity
in the NFL/Tampa Bay.
Josh Johnson to Fantasy
Football Metrics...
The question naturally would be, "what does
your QB formula say about Johnson?" The answer
is, sadly, "incomplete." We do not have enough
good data on Johnson to make that call, based on
the (lack of) strength of opponents we need to
evaluate. If we stretched it a little bit,
Johnson would "break the bank" statistically
with his turbo-charged numbers. Physically, he
would draw some minor red-flags. It appears, he
also scored below our desired levels on the
Wonderlic. Overall, we would be intrigued by the
performance numbers, but would mark him down
physically and mentally...and he would then sit
in the middle of our QB ratings, not a bust, but
not as a projected NFL star either.
The problem with writing him off as an NFL
QB/passer is, that's an evaluation for an NFL
franchise view. For Fantasy Football, Cam
Newton, Tim Tebow, and
Michael Vick are proving passing is
secondary...they will "rush' their way into our
hearts/Fantasy starting lineups.
What can we expect from
Johnson for just this one week?
If we look back to 2009, when Johnson was a
starter (and theoretically at his NFL
worst/least experienced), we would see the
following (4 pts per pass TD):
Week-4 @ WAS = 10.3 FF points on 106
yards passing, 1 TD/1 INT, 41 yards rushing
Week-5 @ PHI = 15.6 FF points on 240
yards passing, 50 pass attempts, 2 TD/3 INT, 40
yards rushing
Week-6 vs. CAR = 6.4 FF points on 147
yards passing, 0 TD/1 INT, 45 yards rushing
In Week-7, he faced Belichick and was not
good...I'll give him a pass on that.
If you look at the 2009 season numbers above,
they are very Tim Tebow-esque...which
is now, suddenly, in vogue. However, we are now
two seasons of experience later with Johnson.
Johnson also is an unrestricted Free Agent after
this season -- if given the chance this week,
Johnson is playing for "all the marbles." A
crappy game as an emergency starter this week,
and he's probably back as the lowly paid TB
backup in 2012. A "magical" game, even if with a
lot of running output and lower passing, could
earn him millions.
We would expect Johnson to roll 50+ yards
rushing against the Titans this week, and then
cross-your-fingers on what the passing would
look like. Should Johnson put up something in
the range of 200 passing yards and 1 TD/1 INT,
then you are looking at around 15 Fantasy
Football points. However, the upside exists that
Johnson plays/runs for his (financial) life, and
puts up something more like 60-70-80+ yards
rushing...and facing a Titans team that may not
be prepared for what Johnson might throw at them
(they did just face Cam successfully a few weeks
ago, so maybe they are ready...). Johnson could
do something very interesting for just one week.
We wouldn't expect anyone to bench Eli, Romo,
Stafford, etc for a chance at this Josh
Johnson brass ring. We would consider
this if you are looking at Ponder, Hasselbeck,
Flacco or Freeman, etc...and you need a jolt in
your lineup this week.
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