Honestly, most of you didn't know who
Jordy Nelson was to start 2010...but all of
you do now. It's not your fault. The mainstream
Fantasy/NFL Draft media didn't beat the drum on
it, like with their excellent calls on
Michael Crabtree or A.J. Green.
Last season, we rated Nelson as a top
break-out WR for 2010 in the preseason. A top-30
Fantasy Football WR, better than James Jones
we said. For most of 2010, that looked about as
foolish as you could get. Not looking so dumb if
you watched the 2010 playoffs and Super Bowl,
nor Week-1 of 2011. There is another Jordy
Nelson story emerging in the form of Broncos
2nd-year WR Eric Decker...only Decker
doesn't quite have the QB to work with that
Jordy does. So let's call Decker, Jordy Nelson-lite.
In order to make the case for Decker, we need
to go back a few years to college...and look at
the parallels to see if you buy this premise.
The College Years...
Jordy Nelson is not as flashy as
Dez Bryant. All Nelson did in 2007 for
Kansas State, is catch 122 passes for 1,606
yards and 11 TDs in his Senior year. Oh yeah, he
also returned 5 punts that year...2 for TDs and
a 52.8 yards per return average. For sure, that
should generate a lot of hype right? Did you
know who Jordy Nelson was in 2008 when he was
drafted? Or, in 2009 for Fantasy Football? Or,
to start Fantasy Football 2010?
The media was more fixated on another Big-12
WR, Dez Bryant...who grabbed 87 passes
for 1,480 yards and 19 TDs in 2008 for Oklahoma
State. Bryant is heralded "as the greatest WR
of our lifetime" that year (the next year it
was the Big-12's Michael Crabtree with
that media love). Jordy Nelson
hype?...barely a peep.
Bryant against stiffer competition in 2008
(Texas and Oklahoma) 6.0 receptions for 82.5
yards and no 100-yard games, and 2 TDs. Nelson
against stiffer competition in 2007 (Auburn,
Texas, Nebraska) -- 10.0 receptions for 110.3
yards and 2 TDs, and oh yeah...two 100+ yard
games. Oh, and a 89-yard punt return TD against
Texas. Oh, and a 21-yard TD pass against Auburn.
Jordy Nelson sure is boring.
Quietly, in that same 2007-08, a WR named
Eric Decker was toiling away in semi-anonymity
for the University of Minnesota.
As a Sophomore in 2007, Decker had 67 catches
for 909 yards and 9 TDs. As a Junior in 2008,
Decker had 84 catches for 1,074 yards and 7 TDs.
Decker was on his way to a 75+ catch, 1,000+
yard, 8-10+ TD season as a Senior in 2009...but
a mid-season foot injury cost him the rest of
his final season.
The NFL Combine,
Pro-Days, the NFL Draft and the Major League
Baseball Draft...
Jordy Nelson measures 6'2+, 217 pounds
and runs solid, but not spectacular 40-times and
agility drills at the NFL Combine. He is the 3rd
WR taken in the NFL Draft in 2008, behind
Donnie Avery (recently cut by the Rams) and
Devin Thomas (cut by the Redskins), taken
as the #35 pick overall.
Dez Bryant measures exactly 6'2, 224
pounds and runs (at his Pro-Day) almost
identical speed/agility trials as Nelson. Bryant
is a debatable #1 overall pick, but falls to the
Cowboys as the #24 pick overall...the 2nd WR
taken in the NFL Draft in 2010.
Eric Decker measures 6'3, 217 pounds
and cannot participate in the NFL Combine due to
his foot injury. He does run at a Pro-Day, and
has similar 40-times to Nelson and Bryant...but
with much better agility metrics. Decker also
out-benches both. Decker, on foot issues, falls
to the 3rd-Round of the 2010 NFL Draft...he's
the 8th WR taken in the NFL Draft last year.
Decker is the less heralded 2010 Broncos WR
draft pick behind 1st-Rounder Demaryius
Thomas.
Decker is also selected in the Major League
Draft. A star outfielder, Decker is a 39th-Round
pick of the Brewers in 2008, and a 27th-Round
pick of the Twins in 2009. He signs with
neither.
Early NFL days returning
kicks...
Jordy Nelson enters the NFL in 2008,
catches 33 passes for 366 yards and returns 11
kicks for 18.9 yards per kick. Nelson has less
WR productivity in 2009, but is the teams
primary kick and punt returner. In 2010, Nelson
is barely noticeable early on...and is still the
teams primary kick-returner. He goes on to catch
9 passes for 140 yards and a TD in the Super
Bowl.
Nelson is tied for first on his team with 8
targets on opening day 2011. He catches a TD,
falls one yard short on another...and is an
Aaron Rodgers overthrow from a long TD.
Eric Decker enters the NFL in 2010 a
little late. He misses time rehabbing from foot
surgery. He goes on to become the teams
predominant kick-returner from Week-12 on. He
catches 6 passes for 106 yards total on the
season.
Decker is the 3rd most targeted WR on his
team on opening day 2011. Decker returns a punt
for a 90-yard TD, and snags career highs in the
game with 3 receptions for 53 yards.
"Jordy Decker"
Decker and Nelson are almost identical
physical clones of each other. They are both
very smart WRs, with great hands. They are both
highly productive in college, and both mostly
unheralded coming out of college. Both begin
their NFL careers primarily returning kicks (a
sign of respect for speed, agility, and ball
security).
Jordy Nelson has already "broken-out"
as a star WR on the rise. Decker is still mostly
unknown. However, the window of opportunity may
have opened for Decker for Fantasy Football; the
break out may be upon us...and it may just be
temporary, but it could be all year.
Brandon Lloyd has a groin injury. That
is an injury that may hobble him temporarily,
but he works through it...or it sits him out for
2-3 weeks, and/or it nags him all year. Former
1st-Round Draft pick Demaryius Thomas is
still injured, and will be for awhile...possibly
all year. The main deep threat/big target WR on
the Broncos could/will now be Eric Decker.
Decker is a potential WR-1, sitting on your
waiver wire right now.
A sure thing, hardly...but eventually, yes.
We thought Nelson would break-out to start 2010,
that proved to be wrong on timing...but right on
the talent call. Decker is going to be right on
the talent call as well (so says our computer),
but I cannot assure that it will be Week-2 or
even 2011...but it's going to happen, and you
may consider taking a shot on it now. If Lloyd
is fine, this is probably is not Decker's year
to break-out...but he will be productive, a good
WR-2 with return skills at minimum.
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