I learned most of the clever words I know
from television. I've heard rumors that you
should have learned great vocabulary words in
school, but with all due respect to all the
English teachers I ever had (none of them do I
remember their name), I choose learning
vocabulary via TV versus actually paying
attention in class (my kids don't read my work,
so I'm in the clear). I still learn my
vocabulary from TV to this day.
For some reason, I remember the word
redact from an episode of The Office
where Dwight thinks that Jim has filed a
fabricated complaint (Jim says Dwight tried to
kiss him in the workplace) against him to HR,
and Dwight wants the written complaint
"redacted" by Toby in HR.
Redacted -- editing or revising a work for
publication. I need to do a little redact on
something from Sunday/Monday.
To start the week I wrote/we published blurbs
on a few players for the week, and about
Montario Hardesty, I wrote:
....If all Montario Hardesty can
do against Seattle is 2.9 yards per carry on 33
carries, with no TDs...then we continue to not
be impressed with Hardesty. We have said for
weeks, that he looks terrible on tape. I haven't
watched the Week-7 tape yet, but from what I saw
live...terrible. Trade him if you can, before he
gets stomped by San Fran next week.
I received a great email yesterday from a
reader, basically pointing out that we were
essentially miss-reading the Seattle-Defense
in the above statement. There was truth in that
reader's comment. When I re-read my statement, I
realized I was being a little too flippant about
Seattle's Defense, in my "bashing" Hardesty
blurb. I'm not worried about being harsh on a
judgment, but I am worried about giving readers
the wrong impression or a bad read on a
situation...because in reality, the
Seattle-Defense has been pretty good this
year. Better than most people realize.
The Seattle Seahawk
Defense
Stats Magee and I, have been fighting about
this in the past week or so. Stats pointed out
data on the potential emergence of Seattle and
Jacksonville as "sleeper" defenses...from the
standpoint that main-line RBs might not pump as
much output against them week-to-week. We are
noticing a trend that Jacksonville and Seattle
are at minimum "good" against the run, contrary
to popular opinion. Our debate was whether
either of them are a possible sleeper for a
great/lock-down of an RB type of defense to fear
every week. I maintain that Seattle's run (or
pass)-defense cannot hold up their current
levels due to their offense's inability to
control the ball/time-of-possession (T.O.P.) --
Seattle has allowed a dreadful 36.0 minutes per
game of T.O.P. so far this year.
No matter who wins this internal argument...I
wanted to let the readers know a key point --
Seattle (contrary to my flippant statement
above) is not a pushover of a run-defense.
Actually, they have been decent against the pass
as well. The Seahawks have played a fairly
strong schedule, and have been crushed in T.O.P.;
and yet they have not allowed a RB over 100+
yards rushing in a game (although two RB tandems
have combined for 95+ against them), and
amazingly, they are holding RBs with 8+ carries
against them to a 2nd best in the league 3.1
yards per carry. Slamming Hardesty for not
rolling over Seattle, was unfair and
misleading...I want you to know that, in case
you see a match-up for your RB against Seattle
-- it is not necessarily the cakewalk I made it
out to be. Important to know for week-to-week
Fantasy Football purposes/decisions.
I do stick by our assessment of Montario
Hardesty, as a disappointment to date. I
have received more email on Hardesty this week,
then email about Demarco Murray, which
caught me by surprise...so I'd like to expound
on our Hardesty issues.
Montario Hardesty
We weren't always bashing Hardesty. All of
our internal scouting starts with our computer
analysis of incoming college players, a
mathematical algorithm a la Moneyball...an
effort to find "the truth" about the new crop of
NFL rookies. We like to think we've hit on
something with our computer models, but it's a
work in progress, and you can do your own
due-diligence. In our computer analysis,
Hardesty rated as future good/solid NFL RB, with
some potential elite tendencies. We liked
Hardesty right away in 2010. Our problem with
Hardesty is not in our original scouting...it is
with our own eye-balls (and that's our least
favorite way to scout a player).
Hardesty had a lost season due to a knee
injury in college, and then also blew out his
knee in his 2010 rookie season...missing the
entire season. Hardesty was slow to return to
action in 2011, and when we saw him in the
preseason -- we saw a very plodding, tentative
runner. Timid running is to be expected early
on, coming back from a knee injury...but it was
something you had to consider pre-Fantasy
Football Draft 2011. Hardesty ran the ball 9
times for 18 yards in his first two NFL games,
looking as bad as he did in the limited 2011
preseason. We turned cold on Hardesty, for fear
that this injury has taken away his excellent
agility...which is one of his elite tendencies
that we really liked. Hardesty was thrust into
action in Week-3 on Peyton Hillis's strep
throat, and he has been the talk of Fantasy
Football since.
From Week-3 to today, Hardesty is only
averaging 3.4 yards per carry...against the
likes of MIA, TEN, OAK, SEA. That is a decent
collection of run-defenses, but not the "best of
the best." Time and again, watching the Hardesty
tape, we see no real burst or great
maneuverability. We see a guy that's getting the
ball a lot, which is great...but not seeing a
star. We want to see a star, our computer says
he could be, but his tape to date says that the
knees may be an issue. If speed and agility are
your primary weapon, and you lose a step in the
NFL -- you're in mega trouble...just ask
Chris Johnson. Our fear is -- that something
is wrong, Hardesty just doesn't look right (to
us).
We would give two sets
of Fantasy Football guidance on Hardesty:
In traditional Fantasy Football leagues,
playing for 2011 only:
We don't feel Hardesty is on the verge of a
break-out; we haven't seen any pop in his
running. When Hillis comes back soon, then this
whole situation is a mess...and Hardesty will
lose value as soon as Hillis comes back.
Hardesty's FF value will be potentially
obliterated when Hillis comes in with a 15 carry
for 68 yards and a TD type of game, to
Montario's 7 carries for 22 yards in the same
game. Hardesty is likely at the apex of his 2011
Fantasy Football value. I say (for those
thinking only of the next 5-7 weeks) capitalize
on the spike in Hardesty's value if someone is
all excited about him, and make a lateral move
for a really good/stable RB in exchange for
Hardesty if there are any takers.
In Dynasty Leagues:
It's fair to hold Hardesty for the long-term,
his measurements in our system warrant
attention. However, the knees are issue...and
what we've seen on tape is an issue. I would try
to flip Hardesty for a long-term RB prospect I
liked better...or to try to fill a 2011 hole
because I am going on a serious title run. If I
was out the race for 2011, I would have no issue
keeping Hardesty around to see what happens in
2012. I know that he is the media's "RB of the
future" for Cleveland, but so was Peyton
Hillis in 2010, and Jerome Harrison
in 2009, etc. Hardesty is intriguing, but there
are red-flags popping. He's worth holding
long-term, but things are not so rosy that I
wouldn't try to move him for something I liked
better.
Summary:
1) Seattle's Defense is good
2) Montario Hardesty rates well on
paper coming out of college, but we've seen no
evidence of a star in the making in his first 62
NFL carries. We are short-term sellers, and
long-term skeptics on fear of the knee. If we
see good trade value, we'd take it...but don't
mind getting "stuck" with him to see what
develops.
Thank you to the reader that emailed in and
challenged my wording on the subject. The
statement has been redacted...sorta.
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