We try to stay away from public proclamations
of picking one team or another to win a game.
Honestly, we don't care (per say)...we are
looking at player performance, usage trends, and
other "hidden gems" to help diagnose future
Fantasy Football results/maneuvers. I have
abandoned having a "favorite" NFL team a few
years ago...which really helped my objectivity
to scouting players, and to be able to
concentrate on several games at once. I watch up
to eight games at a time with Direct TV on
Sunday, and then watch them back during the
week. I really don't care about the winner/loser
in the moment.
I have to admit...I (like most) are
completely sucked into this upcoming Broncos vs.
Patriots game in Week-15. I would rather it be
just one of many games I am watching at 4pm on
Sunday. However, I have a feeling most of my
"eye-time," will be spent on the Pats-Broncos
tussle. The reason I find this game fascinating,
is maybe not the same reason that most people
are interested in it.
I have been suffocated (like the rest of the
world) with media coverage of this game all
week...with every recognizable-named (and
no-name) commentator having an opinion. The
ping-pong ball action all week has wrapped its
tentacles around me...and has pulled me into the
fray. I won't be watching to see who wins. My
interest lies in how the media goes about
twisting a story line, and unwittingly (or
wittingly) misleading the public...which leads
to bad decisions being made for Fantasy
Football.
What fascinates me about all this is
two-fold...(1) the audacity of all the NFL
"experts" perpetually changing their Tebow
stance. (2) How the media is shaping a story
that doesn't exist (mostly concerning the
Patriots).
The NFL "experts," are
you kidding me...
Kudos to the handful of commentators who have
held their ground, on either side of the
Tebow-fence. To the rest, how do reconcile how
wrong you have been? More to the point, how many
times do you plan on flip-flopping on this
Tebow-issue (and you are getting ready to
again)? How can you constantly shift lanes...and
not re-evaluate your mindset? Self-analysis
won't happen. Self-correction won't be
discussed. Most of the public will go along for
ride without questioning it either.
Several weeks ago, Tebow needed to be barred
from playing the QB position...now those same
people are constructing monuments to how great
Tebow is. At the same time that they are
celebrating Tebow this week...they are actually
crushing Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and
the Pats-Defense. Despite the facts
heavily weighed in the Patriots favor. Many are
drinking the kool-aid...and picking Tebow over
Brady this week.
Why this hysteria interests me for Fantasy
Football, and in general, is that many of the
emails and conversations that I've been in this
week start with the media drum-beat
premise/template. Tebow is now a solid NFL QB,
the Patriots-Defense is a joke, and
Tom Brady is mad about stuff. I think all
three things are wrong...and I think it is safe
money to project that the Patriots may beat the
Broncos by 50 points this week (a little
hyperbole there). Let's de-construct the facts
of this game, and you can decide...
Tim Tebow, the suddenly
great passer...
No one has been as lucky (or blessed) as
Tim Tebow the last eight games, since he has
become the starter. The story has been virtually
the same in all but one or two games --
Tebow/the Broncos-Offense is dreadful for 90% of
the game, and then they are magical in the last
few minutes (or the opponents hand them the
game).
Somewhere in all this Tebow-hype, we forget
that the most high-flying offense that Denver
has faced in this Tebow-starter stretch
(Detroit/Stafford), completely stomped
them...45-10 (and it wasn't that close). What do
we think will happen when Tom Brady gets a hold
of them?
More over, people want to remember the
Vikings game two weeks ago (when everyone
suddenly turned the corner on Tebow as a
passer). The Vikings secondary has been ravaged
by injury, and they are essentially using
security guards and administrative staff to
fill-in back there. Tebow "took advantage" of
that opportunity with a "monster" (sarcastic)
202-yard passing game on 15 pass-attempts. NFL
QBs have thrown for 26 TDs and just 5 INTs
against the Vikings this season, please let's
not use 10 of 15 passing for 202 yards against
the Vikings as the Tebow "turning point."
Tebow is a 48.5% passer on the season. In any
other world, we would scoff at that...now we
overlook it. I will grant you that Tebow plays a
different style of QB, and that it has led to a
nice streak of wins. Take away W's and L's...and
this offense has been beyond dreadful in most
every game...spare the last 3-5 minutes. It is
certainly not an offense built to roll
toe-to-toe with a high-flying offense...a la the
New England Patriots.
"But...the
Patriots-Defense is so terrible!"
Strictly looking at all points allowed in
2011 YTD...the Patriots-Defense has
allowed 274 points this season. Four more points
allowed than the New York Jets or
Cincinnati Bengals have allowed this season.
Four fewer points than the undefeated Green
Bay Packers have allowed. The Patriots are
13th in the NFL in points allowed this season.
I'm not suggesting that the Patriots-Defense
is the 85-Bears, but they are hardly the
worst defense in the NFL...not even close. The
Patriots do give up a lot of yards passing,
actually the worst in the league. What would you
expect? They are typically beating teams by 21
points before their opponent figures out that
they should cover Rob Gronkowski...of
course the Pats-D is going to play soft, and
allow some yards.
Do you know who the three worst pass-defenses
in the NFL are? The Patriots, Packers, and
Saints...man are those teams terrible.
"But, but...the Pats have WRs playing on
defense!!" In their last 10-games since
running into defensive injury issues...the
Patriots-D has not allowed a 30+ point game to
their opponents. Actually, when you take
defensive/special team scores out of the mix,
the Patriots haven't given up more than 28
offensive points in any single game this season.
In their last 10 games, the Pats have allowed
only 19.1 offensive points per game...which is
well above average (to the good) in the NFL.
"But, but...Rex Grossman threw the
ball all over them last week!!" Really? 252
yards passing and 59.4% completion
percentage...that's a drubbing? Grossman had 37
of those amazing 252 yards on the last
drive...against a soft-defense. What happened
when the Redskins got close to the end-zone late
in that game, and the field tightened up? The
Pats-D picked Grossman off to end the game.
The Patriots-Defense has at least 1
INT in every game this season, except Week-5
(vs. Sanchez). They currently have
8-straight games with at least 1 INT. The only
teams with a longer run this year -- Houston (9
games), and the Packers (12 games, and still
active).
You see a lot of Packers/Patriots defensive
similarities in various mentions above...and
they really are very similar -- two great QBs
beating down opponents, and forcing opposing QBs
to the air more than they had hoped. When the
Pats/Packers defense knows you have to pass,
turnover potential rises. When a defense is up
by 21+ quickly, they are likely going to give up
a bunch of yardage. With the Patriots (or
Packers-Defense) for Fantasy Football, you allow
for a few points/yards to be had...but you are
seeking the turnovers, and pick-six potential.
I know why many of you are saying/thinking, "the
Patriots-Defense stinks." You are
listening to talk-radio, and/or TV football
"analysis." It's unavoidable if you love
football, and watch many games and/or highlights
on Sunday. Had the major media
outlet/personalities bothered to do any
homework...someone would have stood up and run
counter on the tidal wave of negative opinion on
the Pats-D this week. Nope...Tony Dungy
(just one example) has a flippant, a-typical
comment on the Pats-Defense on Sunday
night...and the media echo-chamber is off and
running. From there, it's "trickle-down
media"...you hear it all week, and many thus
assume the Pats-D is a nightmare. Our numbers
say, it is not true...not even close.
What our data says will
happen in this game...
Really, this is a very simple game for our
computer to process. Actually, I think we can do
this without a computer.
-
If you graded every offensive drive for the
Broncos since Tebow took over as the
starter, the majority of the drives have
failed miserably...especially early in games
-
Tebow overall, has a lower passer-rating
with a horrific completion percentage. Force
him to be a passer, and he is likely dead.
-
Tom Brady is great
-
The Broncos pass-defense has been very poor
all year. Even in the solid defensive
stretch as of late, it has been mostly
against lower-tier QBs (Cassel, Moore,
Hanie). The upper-tier of QBs they have
faced this season, have posted 1.8 TDs/0.5
INTs with 282.8 yards passing per game.
-
The Broncos are missing several DBs this
week due to injury, and were already suspect
before...now they will be worse
-
The Patriots-Defense is much better
than what the media is making it out to be.
If the Patriots get up by 21 quickly, and
Tebow (and his less than 50% accuracy) goes
airborne against a team that is used to
it...watch out.
Aside from a "football follies" type event
happening, like several fumbles, a torrential
downpour, or an ice-storm...there is no way the
Broncos will not get rocked in this game. When
they do, Tebow is going to have to throw...and
it may get ugly.
The fallout from this
Broncos beat-down...
The media has spent the better part of two
weeks reconstructing Tebow greatness, after the
prior months of tearing him down. What will be
said when the Patriots blow the doors off of
Denver this week, and Tebow throws a couple of
picks? All the media which have gone 180 degrees
the past 2-3 weeks on Tebow...will scurry right
back to "see, I told you he was no good." That
will even be wrong...because this will simply be
a case of a great QB (Brady) tearing apart a
terrible/banged up pass-defense, and thus taking
a non-passing QB out of the game he wanted to
play. Not every team the Broncos/Tebow will face
has Tom Brady and Bill Belichick
to take Tebow out of his game plan/comfort zone.
Hope you enjoyed the Tim Tebow
love-fest the last two weeks, because it is all
about to come crumbling down. It has to, whether
via the Patriots or another team...Tebow is
going to lose a game sometime in the future
(mark that prediction down, that's gold). When
Tebow does lose this week (or next, or
playoffs), the media will turn again. The media
turnabout (likely this week) will be unfair, and
wrong to Tebow. What we should ask ourselves is
-- when the media goes 180 on Sunday
night/Monday morning..."why do we keep
listening to these experts?"
How to play this for
Fantasy Football...
I would not be afraid to roll with the
Patriots-Defense for Fantasy Football this
week (unless you have other favorable options).
If you feel (like we do), that the Pats will be
up quick in this game, and forcing Tebow to the
air...the Broncos may never score in this game.
The Patriots have one of the better run-defenses
in the league...so I cannot foresee the Broncos
matching Brady's rapid-TD pace with option-read
running plays. Tebow going to the air more in a
game where he is down by 20-30 points, equals
more chance for turnovers...you may even see the
"mayhem" guy from the Allstate commercials in
the huddle with Tebow.
The Broncos pass-defense is so poor, and
banged up...Brady may throw for 400+ yards. With
that, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron
Hernandez may go crazy-good in this game.
Belichick isn't letting off the gas-pedal in
this one...I would not be shocked to see 50+
points for the Patriots in this game.
What will Tebow do, Fantasy-wise? Hard to
say. If this becomes a blowout, he may get a
decent amount of yardage on soft-defenses...but
we see high turnover potential too. Most likely,
Tebow will be "normal" for output due to soft
coverage as the game goes on...which is good for
his stats sheet. However, we see more chances of
a huge Tebow letdown, then we do a big Fantasy
scoring uprising him in this game.
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
position.
