Ultimately, this article is for anyone
interested in a "deeper dive" on Brandon
Saine, but the catalyst for the extra
research has been from a flood of questions that
have been coming concerning him. The first part
of this is written for the A-typical scenario
why the questions have been pouring in...
RBs have been crazy this Fantasy Football
season.
Every week is like a slot machine...pull the
handle, and anxiously wait to see if
three-cherries will line up. You're rolling
along with Forte, McFadden, Peterson...and then
the rug gets pulled out from under you at a
certain point. You've snatched up, and/or
subsequently folded on, Jackie Battle,
Kendall Hunter, Montario Hardesty,
Isaac Redman, etc. in recent weeks. You have
one solid (for now) RB, but your other RB is a
Maalox moment every time you think about it. It
has been a turbulent Fantasy Football season at
RB.
You have another problem -- you're good! Your
team has been solid-to-great this season, and
you've made the playoffs (or win now, and "in"
next week)...and with that joy, comes a crappy
waiver priority. So you've missed out on
Marion Barber, and you're kicking yourself
for not going C.J. Spiller or Toby
Gerhart when we guided to...but you wanted a
week to wait and see, now you're scrambling.
However it is that you have all arrived
here...you're here. You are suddenly facing the
possibility of rolling-the-dice on Brandon
Saine this week. Let's take a look at what
our computer scouting sees in Saine, and then we
will project what his Week-14 might look like.
Brandon Saine, the High
School years...
Saine was a top-50 overall High School
prospect in 2006-07, a top-5 among RBs, and
arguably, the top prospect in the state of Ohio.
Not only, a football star, but a track star
too...and still holder of the Ohio High School
record for fastest 100-Meter Dash recorded
(10.38). When you think of a traditional "track
star," you think small and wiry. However, Saine
was 5'11, and approximately 200 pounds when he
pulled off that feat. Saine is a power runner,
with track speed...the resume' for a future
Heisman winner out of Ohio State. However, no
one has much cared (outside of OSU fans) about
Saine's football prowess the past four
years...until about a week ago. How did this
happen?
Brandon Saine, the
College years...
Saine hits the college scene, and plays right
away in 2007. A respectable Freshman year behind
Beanie Wells (and Maurice Wells), posting
267 rushing and 160 receiving yards, with 3 TDs.
Saine plays even less in 2008 (Beanie
Wells is still "the man"). Saine misses some
games, but mostly he just did not touch the ball
that often. His best game of the season was a
5-carry, 20-rushing yard effort versus
Youngstown State.
Saine springs to life in 2009. Beanie is now
gone, but Saine splits carries with RB Daniel
Herron...with an additional wrinkle of much
Saine's opportunity being taken by Terrelle
Pryor (the team's leader in carries and
rushing yards). Saine actually finishes a close
second to Pryor for rushing yards in 2009 with
739 yards. Saine, a great receiver, produces
another 224 yards receiving. Saine also has 100+
yard rushing days against Indiana and Iowa (two
of the the only three 100+ yard rushing games he
will have at OSU). A much better season, but
still nothing spectacular.
Saine has a wildly disappointing 2010. He has
knee problems, and Daniel Herron's
production winds up blowing Saine out of the
water...reducing Saine to just 70 carries in 13
games. Saine becomes a forgotten man at Ohio
State, a disappointment if you will.
Saine catches enough attention for an NFL
Combine invite, and posted measureables that on
their own (knowing nothing else)...should have
garnered Saine 1st/2nd-Round NFL Draft
attention. Saine ran a 4.40 40-time, he has a
well-above average bench-press, and he measures
with above average agility...all that from a
5'11 and (now) 220-pound RB. You would figure he
would catch a huge draft-buzz of attention with
these elite-level measureables, but no
excitement occurs.
We are left to wonder if there is some kind
of issue behind the scenes, but we have seen
none...and Saine reportedly scored well on his
Wonderlic test (but unsubstantiated). From what
we've seen from camp, interviews...he seems
pretty normal; for whatever that is worth. We
really liked some of Saine's metrics in our
system, but ultimately were semi-scared off by
his under-whelming college output. We had rated
Saine as our 19th best RB prospect coming out of
the 2011 NFL Draft (despite the fact that he
wasn't drafted).
Only the dumb ole' Green Bay Packers gives
Saine an NFL undrafted free agent tryout.
Brandon Saine for
Week-14...
Had Packers rookie Alex Green not been
injured, we likely aren't talking about Saine
right now...we are talking about Green (the
Packers have simply become better at this
NFL/college scouting than any other franchise).
Green is an equal to/better than version of
Saine (all the measureables, but Green had a
solid/very good statistical performance in
college). However, Green was lost for the season
with injury...and now James Starks is
likely to miss this week with injury as well.
Saine had 6 carries and 6 targets this past
week with Starks missing time...and being on the
highly-watched Packers, everyone is claiming
Saine as their "sleeper" RB this week. Many of
you reading this have followed our website for
awhile, so you either grabbed Saine a week or
two ago when we started discussing Saine again,
or you jumped on this waiver period...ahead of
the mild media awakening. Now suddenly, via
attrition...you are considering him as a Fantasy
Football start this week.
From everything that we see with Saine; we
are highly intrigued...a prototypical size that
you want in an NFL RB, matched with the great
speed/agility/power that he has measured in at.
If we knew that Saine was getting 15+ carries
this week, we would be "all in." However, none
of us can be sure what the workload will be with
Saine. Only one-time this season, has a Green
Bay RB had more than 13 carries (Week-3, Ryan
Grant with 17). This is an offense built on
the heavy-pass, and rush-attempt sharing. The
chance that Saine, a rookie, suddenly sees 10+
carries...is far-fetched (but not impossible).
Saine is a much better PPR play then a
traditional league one. We could see Saine with
5-8 targets in this game, more pass-targets than
carries. Last week, Saine had Packers season
high (6) pass-targets for a RB (Starks had 6
once too). Saine could become a "super-sized"
Darren Sproles for Aaron Rodgers this
week, and as we go forward.
Saine is physically huge, but if the Packers
get near the goal-line...here comes the
"physically-huge'r" John Kuhn to take
that TD. The bet for Week-14, is Saine with 5
carries and 5 catches...which isn't bad...but
comes with a lower likelihood of a TD (due to
Kuhn). However, the light at the end of tunnel
might be -- the Packers drop-kick the Raiders
quickly this week, providing a great opportunity
to get Saine additional playing time (keep Grant
healthy)...and maybe even get the kid his first
TD. It's not wise to assume that scenario to be
the case...but the possibility of it is on the
table.
The smart-money says Saine will get 5 catches
for 40-70 total yards with 0 TDs this week. The
high-stakes gambler in me, could see a 100+
total yard game with a TD. If you need
lightning-in-a-bottle this week, Saine may be
your man. If you need guaranteed points, and
can't risk a game with 0-2 points, stay away.
*Saine only works as a possibility for
Week-14, if James Starks is ruled out
with injury...which we think he will.
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