Much like the old Eddie Murphy/Dan Akroyd
movie Trading Places, my best friend and
I will have some "high stakes" differences of
opinion...the outcome of which (like the movie)
will result in the other being forced to send
one cool American dollar to the other.
Obviously, the money is not the win...the act of
sending the dollar/losing the bet is is the
primary motivator/win.
Last year, our "high stakes" bet landed upon
Devin Aromashodu. Aromashodu was a center
of one of our first contrarian research pieces
released to the public. Preseason 2010,
Aromashodu was a "hot sleeper" Fantasy Football
draft pick in the mainstream...and we railed
against that using our metrics. In the 2010
season Week-1 opener, Aromashodu landed 5
catches for 71 yards...and seemed on his way to
a fulfillment of the preseason promise.
We did not relent on Aromashodu, and my best
friend took the opposite stance. After trying to
talk him out of it, I made the claim that my
friend would waive Aromashodu from his Fantasy
Team by Week 9-10, and that it would be possible
that the Bears would trade/waive him mid-season
as well. Coming off 3 great games to end 2009,
and now this hot start to 2010 -- a bet was made
upon how many catches/yards/TDs Aromashodu would
have by season end...and an additional part of
this bet was that my friend would cut him from
his Fantasy team upcoming as well. Long story
short, Aromashodu did not record a stat for the
next 4 weeks, and only recorded stats in one
game in the following 9 weeks from opening day.
One crisp George Washington was in the
mail to me.
We have landed on a second Fantasy Football
bet, and then quickly fell into a third for this
week. One, or both, you might find
interesting...and meaningful for setting your
Week-10 lineup.
BET #1 = Tim Tebow vs.
Tom Brady -- $1 on which QB will have the most
Fantasy points this week (4 points per pass
TD/25 yards per 1 point passing)
You will see with my side of these bets, that
I am usually heading the wrong way up a
conventional wisdom one-way street...or so it
would appear. Who would ever sit Brady, in favor
of Tebow...ever? Probably, the most shocking
thing/best opportunity I have seen in all
Fantasy Football 2011...is Tim Tebow
still available off Fantasy Football
waivers/free agency last week in traditional
leagues.
As soon as Tebow was named the starter a few
weeks ago, everyone went crazy picking him up
for the Miami game...and then even crazier after
his comeback win. Tebow (seemingly) laid an egg
in a huge loss to Detroit the following week,
and the media went crazy deriding Tebow...and
there was a mass Fantasy Football exodus on
Tebow being cut in traditional Fantasy leagues.
We were surprised by the quick negative
sentiment turn...for as bad as the game was,
Tebow still posted a quasi-respectable 13.2
Fantasy Football points in that Lions game,
despite playing poorly. Plenty of other Flacco,
Romo, Rivers, etc type QBs have had a dud game
worse than that...but the media negative
drum-beat got to the public. We saw him being
cut all over.
Tebow then bounced back with a 24.7 point
Fantasy Football scoring game last week...and
still mostly crickets chirping. I have had
clients dropping Flacco, Rivers, etc for weeks
in favor of picking up a very underappreciated
Fantasy Football asset in the form of Tim
Tebow. I don't like running QBs in the NFL,
not at all...but in Fantasy Football, I have a
new-found love and respect for these running
machines.
It started with Michael Vick, who I
think is a terrible passing QB, but is a monster
Fantasy Football QB. We downgraded Cam Newton
early on similar beliefs of his risk as a
passer...which ended up being stupid for Fantasy
Football purposes. High running totals from a QB
is a huge Fantasy Football asset. We all may
hate Tebow for whatever reason...but over the
past five weeks, Tebow is the 3rd best scoring
QB on a PPG basis (considering his 3.5 games
played in that span). I know, "Tebow is the
worst passer ever" many will say. All he has
so far this year is tally 6 passing TDs and just
1 INT...11 TDs to 4 INT in his brief career.
Cam Newton has 11 TDs and 9 INTs to start
his career. Even if Tebow is the worst passer
ever, and he may be, I only want Fantasy
points...I don't care how they look.
Tebow has 5 of 6 career starts with 20+
Fantasy Football points scored per game over the
last two seasons. I will bet on that trend again
this week versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
The opposite of Tim Tebow, is Tom
Brady. He never runs the ball, and he is the
most brilliant passer of the last decade
(apologies to Peyton)...and unlike Tebow, he is
universally loved. There is no criticizing
Brady. I'm not going to criticize him either. I
would like to point out -- where Tebow has 5 of
his last 6 starts with 20+ FF points scored in a
game...Brady's last 6 starts have all been under
20 FF points, actually all under 18. Does that
mean Tebow is superior to Brady? Before you say
"no way" so quickly...consider that this
is Fantasy Football that we are talking about.
Could it be that a semi-dysfunctional, option
QB, is better than Joe Montana 2.0? In
Fantasy, it's possible. However, this is just a
bet for Week-10. Despite all that prior data in
my favor in this bet, I also get one more
feather for my cap...the Patriots are facing the
Jets, and the Jets have been in serious
lock-down mode against the pass this year.
Brady's Week-5 win against the Jets...he scored
15.1 Fantasy points.
In this one particular week, I will ride the
data trend and go Tebow for 20+, and Brady under
20...actually I just need more from Tebow than
whatever Brady posts, or I will be the one with
the dread of trying to find a stamp in my house
to mail a dollar bill.
BET #2 -- Jerome Simpson
will have more yards and receptions from Week
9-14, than A.J. Green
If you've been reading our work for
awhile...you know we are anti-A.J. Green.
To clarify, we are anti-A.J. Green as an
A+, future hall-of-fame WR. Our beef is that he
is a B-B+ WR, that the media is
over-hyping...and selling us all a bag of magic
beans.
The short story of this bet -- we feel that
A.J. Green will struggle against the
amped up level of CB coverage he will see with a
schedule run of TEN-PIT-BAL-CLE-PIT-HOU. That
his early 2011 results were pushed a bit by a
very easy schedule of pass-defenses/CBs. We also
feel that within the number trends and game
tape, that Dalton is equally comfortable with
Jerome Simpson, as he is with Green...with
one exception -- in the red-zone, Dalton heavily
prefers Green. So, the bet became head-to-head
catches and yards, with percentage of
pass-targets caught as a tie-breaker. Our bet
is/was, that Simpson would see much more
targeting as Green got locked-down by higher
tier CBs...starting with Cortland Finnegan
last week.
Everything went according to our script in
Week-9 versus the Titans, except the results.
Simpson was pass-targeted more than Green (10 to
7), but he only caught 4 of the 10 passes. Green
caught 7 of 7, a first for him at that level
(kudos). Who got the TD last week? Simpson of
course, the one thing we took out of the bet.
It's only one game of six, so plenty of
time...but Round-1 to Green.
The Tebow vs. Brady bet is one where I know
Brady is better than Tebow, but I think in the
Fantasy world it's not as big a difference as
you think...and in this given week with Brady v.
the Jets, I feel I have the upper hand. It's one
week, and obviously anything can happen.
The Green v. Simpson bet has deeper
implications for us. Regardless of whether
Simpson beats Green in this bet or not, we are
watching this stretch very closely on Green.
Going back to March 2011, we have been swimming
upstream on A.J. Green...we think that
this schedule of upcoming tougher opponents will
start to confirm what our computer analysis has
been trying to say all along on Green (good not
great). If Green blows up during this period,
then we have a major talent miss-call on our
hands...and we haven't had many of those as of
late, maybe we are due...
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