Yes, we will be reporting out on our 2012 QB
class, using our computer formula system like we
did last year. However, we are a little more
prepared for it this season. Last year, we
started rolling out player scouting reports for
the first time in February. We were not sure
what the response would be, and it wound up to
be huge. This year we have started our
data-input and research earlier, and plan to
start reporting it out as soon as the NFL season
ends. There will be no "off-season," as soon as
all of us (hopefully) win all of our Fantasy
Leagues, then it's time to start work on the
2012 player due-diligence...vetting out next
year's crop of prospects. We're already hard at
work evaluating Landry Jones, Case Keenum,
Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill, Kellen Moore,
Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Brandon
Weeden, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley, etc.
However, there will be a slight change in the
plan for our 2012 reporting...we will be
launching a new website that will contain our
college scouting for the QBs. Not only,
reporting on the QBs, but all the offensive
skill positions. Not only, reporting on all of
the offensive skill positions, but we have been
hard at work, beta-testing defensive player
formulas as well. This new website will focus on
2012 player evaluations from an NFL Draft
perspective, but will also go in a million other
directions...from providing rankings of players
pre-draft, as well as projections/rankings right
after the NFL Draft for those who have 2012
Dynasty League rookie drafts to look forward to.
This new site will also contain data and
research on previous NFL Draft classes and NFL
Draft trends, and anything else we can dream
up...or that the readers suggest.
There are two things I can tell you about this
website:
1) We have a million ideas, and a million
suggestions for this website. This site is going
to be an open book in a sense...a rolling stream
of discovery that we find out about on all these
prospects. For the 4+ months leading up to the
NFL Draft, we will be looking (visually) at 99%
of these players for the first time...like
presents on Christmas morning. We let our
Moneyball-modeled computations lead us into a
direction of buried treasure (or avoiding hidden
quicksand), and then with that data we then
visually scout players. What we discover, as we
discover it...we will share with our
clients/readers as we go. We will relay the
information as if we are your private
research-arm/General Manager, reporting back to
you what we have found...and you can evaluate it
from there. Our goal is to help all of us be
one-step ahead of everyone else in football
player evaluations...but also to keep it
interesting and actionable.
We hope this website will be like slowly
turning the page of a really interesting book,
leaving an anticipation for the next page turn.
As we complete the player evaluations and
research, we will post it on this new website.
We are also working with enhanced player search
features so you won't have to skim all over
looking for prior data and articles. We plan to
have tons of lists, comparisons, rants,
discoveries, etc. Hopefully you will enjoy the
ride.
2) This will be a capitalistic endeavor. Many
have written in, letting us know how much that
they are enjoying the college scouting
information...and how invaluable it is (thank
you). We like invaluable, but we will attempt to
place a value on it for 2012...we need to keep
the pirate ship afloat. All of the new site
details and pricing information will be released
soon. We hope you will find this new
website/venture valuable, and interesting.
Changes to the QB
formula...
As Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder
have stepped forward right away, and as
Blaine Gabbert has stepped backwards...as
our computer evaluations had foresaw...our
readership and email questions have been
growing. I have received a number of questions
concerning the final 2011 ratings for the QB
class. I would like to address that, and provide
an update.
Our computer scouting equations are planned
to be ever-"evolving." We use the past to learn
for the future. If we see a new trend forming,
or an old trend no longer holding up...we look
at adjustments for the upcoming evaluation
period. Our 2011 QB formulas/predictions feel
pretty good to us right now, but we have gone
"back to the lab" to further refine the
formula...and re-test it. We have made a few
slight modifications for the 2012 testing, and
have also applied those back to the last decade.
Some of the highlights of what we have done:
Our formula is based on modeling elite
passing-QBs of today, Brady, Brees, P.Manning,
etc. The formula also included Aaron Rodgers
originally, but we have further studied Rodgers
to see what we could learn/made him a bigger
factor of the overall model...for obvious
reasons. We wanted to see what result that
change had, as well as a few other minor
adjustments...and we are liking what we see.
When we changed the formula a bit, most
players stayed exactly/pretty similar to where
they had been rated before. We will release the
full updated historical list on the new website
in January. A few QBs made more significant
moves upon applying the changes back into
history, most notably -- Joe Flacco
dropped off our future elite rating, and no new
QB has broken onto our list. Chad Pennington
and Andrew Luck (2010 season evaluation)
had their ratings tumble a decent amount, but
still ranked in the future elite category. Eli
Manning has moved from middle-of-the-road
ratings, toward knocking on the door of a future
elite QB (obviously a lot of that verdict is
already in)...but did not make it there quite
yet.
Below is the 2011 QB class review/update.
Keep in mind that because a QB is rated over
another...doesn't automatically mean that the
one is better than the other. Really, we are
looking at -- did a player achieve over a
certain score (0.850) like the other future
greats? This lets us know if maybe we have
another future great on our hands. The more the
QBs fade from a score of 0.850 in our
system...the more sure we are that they are
going to bust.
The 2011 QB Class in
Review
The modified formula applied to the 2011 QB
class, here is our top-10 right now with the new
formula:
1) 1.050 = Ricky Stanzi...Stanzi still
stands at the top, which is highly
controversial, and we'll see how this turns out.
Obviously, Stanzi success would be a grand-slam
for our research.
2) 1.022 = Andrew Luck...Even though
he wasn't in the 2011 NFL Draft, we just had to
know! Pre-2011 formula changes, Luck circa-2010
was the highest scoring QB in our system. He has
dropped a bit in the adjustments...still a
high-probable NFL elite score that we have on
him just based on 2010. Based on the current
2011 season, well...you'll have to find out in
January 2012!
3) 1.015 = Christian Ponder
(circa-2009)...2009 is pre-elbow/shoulder
injury. You will see Ponder's 2010 season
evaluation below, with the injury issues. Again,
we left it up for you to decide. As an NFL exec,
I would be scared off by these serious (to a QB)
injuries. However, we found it interesting how
good Ponder was pre-injury. Definitely, worth
noting...but not sure worth a 1st-Round NFL
Draft pick for the risk...but we're not doctors.
4) 0.889 = Andy Dalton...When we first
reported Dalton as a probable great, possibly
future elite QB prospect in Feb 2011, it was not
very "vogue." By Draft-Day 2011, it was very
chic'...now it is almost a forgone conclusion
that he is really good, with debate on whether
he is a future great.
Those four QBs (above) contained the only
elite grades of the 2011 bunch. So, actually,
three with passing grades for 2011...since Luck
wasn't eligible. Perhaps, only two passing grade
QBs for 2011, since Ponder's score was from the
2009 season. Every QB we are about to list
below, our computer model says will not be an
elite NFL QB...and keep in mind, this is
evaluating them as "passers." What you
evaluate/value running ability as, is your
call...we look at them as a passer first/only.
Basing that on the theory that bad passers/good
runners, find their way out of the NFL quickly.
However, we might have to reconsider that stance
(paging Tim Tebow)...and we have been
looking at it.
5) 0.785 = Greg McElroy...wound up as
a late-round pick of the Jets. Looked decent in
the preseason.
6) 0.749 = Pat Devlin...the one-time
1st-2nd Round projected NFL Draft pick, fell to
undrafted because of character issues. We are
missing Wonderlic data on Devlin, that we
assumed neutral...if that data was positive, he
still would fall short. If that data is
negative, he would crash out the top-10. He is
one to watch, but seems a million miles away at
this point.
7) 0.746 = Cam Newton...the very
controversial call. Many will, and have, pointed
to this as a flaw/miss for our system analysis.
However, we are absolutely not convinced of
Newton as a future elite passing-QB. When people
hyperventilate over that statement, we would
just point out...take the hysteria of the first
two 400+ yard games away, take the running TDs
away (we are evaluating passing skills)....in
the past 8-10 games, Cam Newton is a very
inefficient, average QB (statistically). Time
will tell if Newton defies our projection
long-term, but we aren't sold on him based on
his 2011...there is more hysteria, than fact on
the Newton story right now (to us).
8) 0.741 = T.J. Yates...Yates is
knocking on the door of a passing/elite score,
but ultimately fell short. You can see already,
that Yates appears to be a competent QB...and
already better than the much higher drafted
Blaine Gabbert.
9) 0.694 = Christian Ponder
(circa-2010)...his 2010 was injury riddled, so
it's likely not fair to evaluate 2010 given 2009
was so spectacular. It's your call.
10) 0.649 = Ryan Mallett...faded in
the NFL Draft, and we see some of those reasons
in our formula. He looked good in spots in the
preseason, but not so good in others. He is one
that "looks the part,"...tall, big-arm, etc. All
that really means very little in our analysis.
We favor actual performance output metrics,
along with the needed measureables.
Other Notables:
0.439 = Blaine Gabbert...you have to
keep in mind, when we said Gabbert was a bust in
Feb' 2011...there was nary a soul that agreed
with that. Actually, Gabbert was a #1 overall
projected pick by just about every NFL Draft
analyst during Jan-March 2011 pre-Draft. We're
as proud of this negative call, as the right
call (at this point) on Dalton. There are two
big "wins" in player evaluation...finding
greatness, or avoiding a disaster.
-0.096 = Jake Locker...the jury is
still out. We feel pretty confident, but we'll
see. Saying Locker was a bust, was almost as
heretical as saying Gabbert was in early
2011...keep that in mind before you buy the
media hype here.
-0.130 = Terrelle Pryor...is there any
doubt on this rating?
-0.149 = Colin Kaepernick...if you had
seen any of him in the preseason, you know we
are right.
Looking forward to 2012:
All the data is not in yet, there is still
college games to be played...but things are
rounding into shape. We an already see one major
QB name headed for a bust rating, and one QB
shocker...a QB that may draw ratings above
Andrew Luck.
All things to come in 2012. We hope you will
join us. More details forthcoming.
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
position.
